LIVE MARKETS-British airways: the big "if"

* Wall Street opens higher, Nasdaq jumps

* Euro STOXX 600 down ~1.1%

* Dollar up; gold, crude down

* U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ~1.47%

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BRITISH AIRWAYS: THE BIG "IF" (0930 EST/1430 GMT)

Quite a performance by IAG today!

About two hours from the closing bell, the owner of British
Airlines is up about 4% and the top performer of London's FTSE
100 after announcing a 7.4 billion euro ($9 billion) loss last
year.

While markets are relieved IAG has got enough cash to
weather through the current COVID-19 travel restrictions,
there's some uneasiness about the blurred visibility going
forward and the absence of 2021 guidance.

Not that CEO Gallego was not upfront.

"To be honest nobody knows what's going to happen", is as
straightforward as it gets.

But are investors too optimistic in pricing the recovery?

For Michael Hewson at CMC Markets, the key will be getting
lucrative long-haul business trips back.

"This is where most big carriers make their money, and it is
here that normal service may well take a little longer to return
to the same levels they were in 2019.

Same doubts from Russ Mould at AJ Bell.

"Business travel could be the big ‘if’ for 2021 and 2022 as
companies realize that web conferencing calls using Zoom or
other platforms could be more productive than spending hours on
a plane to different countries for quick meetings", he wrote
this morning.

There's also another strong headwind blowing ahead.

"A lot of businesses are under pressure to be more
environmentally friendly and they could get brownie points for
saying they’ve slashed their corporate travel bill by a large
amount.

(Julien Ponthus)

****

NASDAQ COMPOSITE: ANOTHER TWO-"DAZE" DROP? (0900 EST/1400
GMT)

The Nasdaq Composite has certainly been knocked
around of late, leaving tech-focused investors a bit dazed.
Indeed, the IXIC is on track for its biggest weekly drop in 3
months, ending Thursday down more than 7% from its February 16
intraday high.

Of note, on an Elliott Wave basis, one potential wave count
can suggest a 5-wave decline is forming:

This includes a 2-day, 3.3% drop from the peak, or wave 1,
followed by a 1-day, 2%, bounce, or a wave 2. Wave 2 retraced
59% of wave 1.

Wave 3, or what should be the strongest wave down, was a
2-day, 7%, slide. This was followed by another 1-day bounce, of
4.6%, which potentially formed a 4th wave. Wave 4 retraced 61.5%
of wave 3, or a near perfect Fibonacci 61.8%.

Wave 5 then appears to have kicked off into Thursday's low.

If the 1-day bounce 2-day drop symmetry continues, then the
Composite should end its 5th wave down some time Friday after
violating Tuesday's low (13,003.981).

If this is a correct count, a 161.8% Fibonacci projection of
wave 1 down from the wave 4 high would call for a decline to
12,861.

If a low is found, the IXIC can then see a strong rally.
However, given that a 5-wave decline will then appear to have
formed, it can suggest the larger trend has changed from up to
down. If so, the IXIC would have work to do to prove strength
wasn't just another retracement rally.

Of note, however, Nasdaq 100 futures are rallying
after making a fresh low and nearly tagging their 161.8%
Fibonacci projection in overnight trade. A lack of new lows in
the IXIC and NDX would keep their declines at just 3 waves,
suggesting either a more complex pattern was developing, or that
the recent declines were just an a-b-c correction.

(Terence Gabriel)

*****

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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views
expressed are his own)