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FOREX-Dollar retreats on optimism over Middle East tensions

Thu, 07th May 2026 14:59

* Dollar slips, euro benefits from oil pullback

* Markets await more clarity on US-Iran talks

* Yen underpinned ​by risk ⁠of Japanese intervention

* Norges Bank rate hike boosts crown (Updates to U.S. morning)

NEW YORK, May 7 (Reuters) - The dollar eased for a second straight day on Thursday as hopes for a de-escalation in the Iran-U.S. war supported oil-exposed currencies, while Tokyo resumed its verbal ​intervention ‌in support of the yen, making speculators cautious.

The United States and Iran are edging toward a limited, temporary agreement to halt their war, sources and officials have said, with a draft ⁠framework that would stop the fighting but leave the most contentious issues unresolved.

Reports of the ⁠possible progress have supported stock and bond markets globally since Wednesday, ​while weighing on the dollar against most major peers.

That momentum continued on Thursday, albeit in a more muted manner.

The euro was up 0.2% on the day at $1.1755 after gaining 0.47% on Wednesday, while sterling was 0.2% higher at $1.36255 after rallying 0.4% the previous day.

"A sense of cautious optimism has settled on financial markets in the aftermath of ​yesterday’s U.S.-Iran headlines, lifting ‌currencies with heavy energy import exposures and limiting safe-haven flows into the dollar," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.

"Measures of implied volatility are inching lower across the foreign exchange landscape, with fear levels now well below pre-war thresholds in many currency pairs," Schamotta said.

Oil prices continued to show some hopes of de-escalation that could allow exports from the Gulf to resume.

Schamotta noted that the calm in markets could well prove fleeting.

"While the Trump administration is clearly motivated to ​find an off-ramp in the conflict, there’s little to suggest that negotiating positions have converged. More negative, and volatility-inducing headlines could land in the days and weeks to come," he ‌said.

YEN MOVES

The Japanese yen was about flat on the day at 156.36 per dollar, having appreciated sharply on Wednesday with speculation that Japanese authorities had again intervened in markets to buy their currency.

Japan may have spent as much ‌as 5.01 trillion yen ($32.06 billion) in its latest efforts to bolster its embattled currency, central bank data indicated on Thursday, signalling repeated bouts of intervention in markets.

Japan's top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, said separately on Thursday the country was not restricted on intervention.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi next week, and ​the Nikkei newspaper said they would discuss curbing speculative yen selling, among other issues.

But analysts do not expect the yen to remain firm for long.

"Without stronger BOJ follow-through via consecutive hikes to address ‌its behind-the-curve stance, the yen is likely to remain weak in the near term," Masahiko Loo, senior fixed income strategist at State Street Investment Management, said.

Repeated interventions raise the likelihood of broader policy action in the June to July window, consistent with the late 2024 playbook, Loo added.

DOLLAR BROADLY WEAKER

The U.S. currency lost ground against a ⁠broad range of peers, ⁠including the Norwegian crown and the Australian dollar.

Norway's crown strengthened after the central bank raised its policy rate ‌to 4.25% from 4% and warned inflation was too high. The dollar hit a fresh four-year low and was last down 0.4% to 9.2587 crowns.

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose 0.2% and last fetched $0.72516, just ​below the four-year high it touched on Wednesday.

The ​Swedish crown was about 0.4% stronger at 9.198 per dollar after Sweden’s Riksbank said the risk that the Middle ‌East war would lead to higher inflation had increased somewhat, though it kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, as expected.

Leading cryptocurrency bitcoin slipped about 1% to $80,819, but remained not far from the more than three-month high touched in the previous session. (Reporting by Saqib iqbal Ahmed; Additional reporting by Alun John in London, Wayne Cole in Sydney and Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Kim Coghill, Clarence Fernandez, Andrew Heavens and Andrea Ricci)

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