Broker snap: Credit Suisse hikes Next target, but cautions over long-term forecasts

Credit Suisse has hiked its target price for Next on the back of the retailer's strong brand momentum, but kept a cautious stance on concerns over long-term forecasts for the company.The bank raised its target price for the shares by 1,000p to 6,500p and maintained a 'neutral' recommendation for the stock."In a meeting with management this week we were struck by the degree of (cautious) confidence in the UK macro, International prospects for Directory, UK space pipeline, strength of the brand, improvements to execution, bad debts in the credit book and continued near 100% cash conversion," Credit Suisse said. "Given that we have now upgraded our 2013/14 forecasts by 15% in the past 12 months, versus widespread downgrades of 6-8% elsewhere in the sector, this optimism is scarcely surprising."The bank said it sees few concerns over its forecasts for this year and the next, and with the shares trading at 16 times' earnings they are "not expensive versus peers".However, looking ahead the bank believes that long-term growth, margin and tax assumptions now look "quite demanding"."Next Brand earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins are near 20%, which is frequently a watershed in retail, and, given the relatively low sales growth, we believe the valuation discounts these margins into maturity, driven by positive brand like-for-like sales and a benign gross margin environment, coupled with 21% tax rates, the lowest in 20 years."The stock was 0.32% higher at 6,185p by 10:59.BC