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LONDON MARKET CLOSE: Cooling US inflation triggers risk-on rally

Thu, 10th Nov 2022 17:01

(Alliance News) - Equities in Europe were celebrating a cooler-than-expected US CPI print on Thursday, which gave rise to hopes that peak inflation in the US has passed.

The FTSE 100 index closed up 79.09 points, 1.1%, at 7,375.34. The FTSE 250 ended up 728.24 points, 3.9%, at 19,377.24, and the AIM All-Share closed up 1.8%, or 15.22 points, at 841.57

The indices had a mostly cautious day, trading down 0.1%, up 0.1% and down 0.4% respectively at midday in London, before shooting up on the relase of the US data.

The Cboe UK 100 ended up 1.3% at 739.22, the Cboe UK 250 closed up 3.9% at 16,715.65, and the Cboe Small Companies ended up 1.3% at 12,683.16.

Equities in Europe were similarly upbeat, as the CAC 40 in Paris ended up 1.9%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt outperformed, jumping 3.6%.

US inflation slowed in October, the latest data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed, undershooting market expectations.

The consumer price index rose 7.7% in October against the prior year, slowing from the 8.2% rise recorded in September. Market consensus, as cited by FXStreet, had expected for inflation to cool to 8.0% in October.

Against the previous month, consumer prices rose by 0.4% in October, unchanged from September and in-line with market consensus.

With the figure coming in below expectations, many will view the reading as a case for the US Federal Reserve to be less assertive and hike rates by 50 basis point or less in December. In each of the last four meetings it has raised rates by 75 basis points.

"The cool inflation print should mean the beginning of the end for inflation fears, and the Fed will feel much more comfortable ramping down," said SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes.

Strengthening the case for a more dovish stance in the months to come was data showing a rise in jobless claims in the US.

According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis point hike in the Fed's December meeting now stands at 81%, compared to 57% on Wednesday.

Data from the Department of Labor showed jobless claims were up in the week ending November 5.

It said 225,000 new claims were made, a rise of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level which was increased to 218,000 from 217,000.

In the September minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee, policymakers had highlighted that a softening in the labour market would likely be necessary to reign in inflation.

However, AJ Bell's Danni Hewson cautioned: "Whilst today's bad jobs news will be viewed by markets as good news, employment is still startlingly high for a country expecting a serious growth slowdown and that means competition for workers will keep wages elevated for at least the short term."

Stocks in New York were surging at the London equities close, with the DJIA up 2.8%, the S&P 500 index up 4.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 5.8%.

The dollar, meanwhile, slumped against major currencies.

The pound was quoted at USD1.1661 late Thursday, up sharply from USD1.1416 at the London equities close on Wednesday. The euro traded at USD1.0162, up from USD1.0049. Against the yen, the dollar was trading at JPY141.78, a steep fall from JPY146.00 on Wednesday.

The lower dollar drove the price of gold higher. Gold was quoted at USD1,745.45 an ounce, sharply higher against USD1,713.97 at the London equities close on Wednesday.

In London, oil stocks BP, Shell and Harbour Energy shed 2.4%, 2.9% and 2.1% as the dollar-earners felt the hit from a weaker greenback, and a weak demand outlook after China recommitted to its "unswerving" zero-Covid policy.

The price of a barrel of Brent remained fairly steady, however, quoted at USD93.90 late Thursday in London, up slightly from USD93.74 late Wednesday.

GSK consumer healthcare spin-off Haelon fell 2.8%.

For the third quarter of 2022, the Sensodyne and Panadol-owner reported revenue growth of 16% year-on-year to GPB2.89 billion from GBP2.49 billion.

Pretax profit, however, slipped to GBP495 million from GBP507 million. It blamed the dip on standalone costs and adverse foreign exchange rates, specifically related to the Swiss franc and US dollar strength.

GSK ended the day mostly unscathed, up 0.1%.

B&M European Value lost 4.5%, as it reported shrinking interim profit and a dip in UK revenue.

The retailer reported pretax profit in the six months to September 24 fell 17% to GBP201 million from GBP241 million a year ago. Revenue grew 1.8% to GBP2.31 billion from GBP2.27 billion.

Revenue from UK B&M fell by 0.9% to GBP1.89 billion from GBP1.91 billion, while revenue in France rose 18% to GBP184 million from GBP155 million. Heron Foods revenue increased 15% to GBP233 million from GBP203 million.

However, the budget retailer said trading has been good in the early stage of the "golden quarter", which contains the key Christmas trading period.

Elsewhere in the FTSE 100, the mood was jubilant.

Property stocks were among the highest gainers, with Unite Group up 6.2%, British Land rising 6.4%, Land Securities rising 5.9%, and St James's Place adding 7.5%. Housebuilders also rose, with Persimmon, Barratt Developments and Taylor Wimpey rising 6.5%, 5.9% and 6.4% respectively.

ConvaTec was the best performer, adding 9.0%.

The medical products and technologies company said revenue in the 10 months to October 31 rose 2.4% year-on-year, slowing from a 3.6% hike in the first-half due to adverse effects from foreign exchange movements.

Nonetheless, ConvaTec upped its 2022 organic revenue growth guidance to a 5.4% to 5.8% range, from previous a 4.0% to 5.5% forecast.

In the midcaps, IntegraFin added 11%. The London-based investment platform said it expects to report adjusted pretax profit "moderately above" the top end of analyst consensus estimates.

This follows cost reductions resulting from accounting updates, the firm explained.

Grafton jumped 11% as it backed yearly guidance and unveiled a new share buyback of up to GBP100 million.

"The favourable first half revenue trends in the Distribution businesses in Ireland and the Netherlands continued against the backdrop of solid underlying demand and building materials price inflation," the building materials firm and DIY retailer said.

Average daily like-for-like revenue grew 1.8% annually at constant currency during the period from July 1 and October 31. It was up 17% from three years earlier, before the onset of the pandemic.

On AIM, Biome Technologies surged 62%.

The plastic material & resin manufacturing company said revenue in the third quarter of 2022 is in-line with expectations at GBP1.9 million, and 73% higher than the GBP1.1 million achieved the previous year.

It explained that the rise reflected demand across its customer portfolio, as well as some catch-up from the second quarter as raw materials for production finally cleared supply chain hurdles.

Biome confirmed that its outlook for 2023 remains unchanged.

In Friday's UK corporate calendar, there's half year results from insurer Beazley and warehouse investor Urban Logistics REIT. There will also be trading statements from financial services firm Permanent TSB and toys, crafts and stationery retailer TheWorks.co.uk.

The economic calendar for Friday has UK monthly GDP estimates, production index, and trade statistics, as well as German consumer inflation figures at 0700 GMT.

By Elizabeth Winter; elizabethwinter@alliancenews.com

Copyright 2022 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.

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