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Share Price: 146.70
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UK MIDDAY BRIEFING: Shire Buys US Rare Disease Company; Afren Plunges

Mon, 12th Jan 2015 12:09

LONDON (Alliance News) - Shire has an agreed USD5.2 billion deal to acquire the US's NPS Pharmaceuticals for USD46.00 per share in cash, an acquisition it expects to bolster its rare diseases portfolio and add to earnings from 2016.

The Dublin-based pharmaceutical company has gone from being the target of a US rival, after Abbvie Inc's GBP32 billion proposed deal collapsed last year after the US Treasury moved to curb so-called "tax inversion deals", to being an acquirer of a US business.

Edison Investment Research analyst Mick Cooper said Monday that Shire's acquisition "serves to underscore that Shire's appetite to become a leading biotech company has only increased since Abbvie walked away."

The US Food and Drug Administration is expected to announce its conclusion on NPS' registration-stage product for hypoparathyroidism Natpara on January 24, and Deutsche Bank thinks there is clearly a risk in announcing a deal days before the approval.

However, Deutsche Bank also notes that both Shire and NPS' management appeared "very confident" on a conference call that approval would be forthcoming.

"Assuming this is the case, we think this deal will quickly be seen by investors both as entirely consistent with Shire’s stated strategy to expand its role and leadership in rare diseases and as typically growth and earnings per share accretive," Deutsche Bank wrote in a note to clients.

As it stands, oil and gas producer Afren will drop out of the FTSE 250 at the next index review, as its shares collapsed again Monday, hitting the lowest level for nearly six years and making it the smallest stock in the mid-cap index by market capitalisation.

Afren dropped by around a fifth after it said it is considering its options for the Barda Rash field in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, beacuse the reserve estimate for the prospect is set to be revised down substantially.

Afren said an updated competent person's report is expected to show a revision in the total reserve estimate for the field to 250 million barrels of oil, from 1.24 billion barrels previously. The downgrade has been made due to the reprocessing of 3D seismic surveys undertaken in 2012 and processed in 2013, alongside results of its most recent drilling campaign. The reservoirs have not performed according to previous expectations, Afren said, while the wells have encountered higher water cuts than expected, and the company has seen operational challenges associated with drilling complex fractured reservoirs.

The fall in its share price comes as the company holds talks over a possible takeover by SEPLAT Petroleum Development Co PLC, a Nigerian oil company. SEPLAT confirmed it had made a "highly preliminary" approach for Afren last week, confirming a statement made by Afren in December that it had entered into talks with SEPLAT.

Afren's share price initially collapsed in the second half of 2014. Its share price fell around 70% over the course of 2014, first dragged sharply lower by a payments scandal involving its former chief executive and chief operating officer and then exacerbated by the falling oil price towards the end of the year.

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Markets: London stocks are broadly higher, shrugging off a slide in Brent crude to a new five-and-a-half year low amid continued focus on December's mixed US jobs report which saw strong employment gains and an upward revision to November's figures but a slowdown in wage growth. Brent crude is quoted at around USD48.74 a barrel after touching a new five-and-a-half year low of USD48.52 early.

US futures are pointing to a higher open on Wall Street. The DJIA is called to start up 0.5%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 up 0.4%.
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FTSE 100: up 0.3% at 6,523.37
FTSE 250: flat at 16,006.03
AIM ALL-SHARE: up 0.4% at 706.19
GBP-USD: down at USD1.5145
EUR-USD: down at USD1.1803
GOLD: down at USD1,221.34 an ounce
OIL (Brent): down at USD48.973 a barrel
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Other Top Corporate News
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AstraZeneca said its biologics research and development arm MedImmune has inked a licensing deal with privately held biotechnology firm Omnis Pharmaceuticals. Under the deal MedImmune has a license to develop, and if successful, commercialise Omnic's lead oncolytic virus programme.
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Housebuilder Taylor Wimpey reported strong growth in completions and average selling prices for 2014, and said it is entering 2015 with a record order book, giving it confidence in its prospects as it starts the first year of its new medium-term target period. In a statement, Taylor Wimpey said it completed 12,454 homes in 2014, up 6% from 11,696 in 2013, and it achieved an average selling price of GBP234,000, up 11% from GBP210,000 a year earlier. It said its order book stood at nearly GBP1.40 billion at the end of 2014, up 12% from GBP1.25 billion a year earlier.
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Royal Bank of Scotland Group is looking to put most of its Asian corporate banking business up for sale, Bloomberg reported citing a person familiar with matter. The report said that the Chief Executive Officer Ross McEwan would be holding a series of meetings in Singapore on Sunday to consider ways to scale back the lender's Asian business. The lender said last month that it's shutting its Japanese trading business. Quoting the person, the report indicated that the bank has about 2,000 employees in the Asia-Pacific region that could be affected. RBS would probably keep some operations in Singapore offering clients dollar, euro and yen fixed-income products.
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Online domestic appliances retailer AO World said website revenue rose 38% in its fiscal third quarter which includes the key Christmas trading period, with sales spiking around Black Friday but remaining strong in the run-in to the festive season. It added that it remains confident that it will meet full-year expectations. In a statement, the retailer said website revenue was up 38% on the year in the three months to end-December, while total revenue, which includes third-party retail and logistics, rose 26%.
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The Unite Group said it has acquired a development site, subject to planning, in the centre of Coventry, and plans to build a home for about 280 students in time for the 2017/18 academic year. In a statement, the student accommodation company said the scheme is expected to achieve returns in line with Unite's targets for regional development and the total development cost, including the cost of the land, is expected to be approximately GBP13 million. It said the scheme will continue to drive its earnings visibility and net asset value growth.
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AIM Movers
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Quindell shares are up by more than a quarter after it made two appointments to its board, said trading remains "robust" and said it remains in talks over the sale of a still-unnamed part of its business. Active Energy is also doing well after it won two high-volume wood-chip supply contracts for 2015, will expand its Ukraine-based production capacity, and has introduced a new wood chip product line. Fastjet shares are up a fifth after it made its first profit before interest and tax in December, as revenue and passenger yield soared due to strong demand over the holiday season and its fuel costs fell. Thor Mining is also up after it posted an upgraded feasibility study for the Molyhil tungsten project in Australia which confirmed the attractive economics of the project and an early payback on the capital required for development. Nationwide Accident Repair Services is another gainer after it said it expects 2014 underlying pretax profit to beat its own expectations after a strong finish to the year, and for its net cash position to be "significantly" ahead of forecasts. NetDimensions Holdings is up after it predicted that its full year loss before interest and some non-cash items for 2014 is likely to be smaller than current market expectations. Ncondezi Energy shares are down by a fifth after it only managed to raise GBP760,000 from an open offer that was announced in December, less than a quarter of the company's target. Daily Internet is down after it said it has repaid GBP170,000 of its 2015 convertible notes. Following the repayment, the company will have GBP105,000 nominal of 9% convertible loan notes 2016 in issue, with a redemption date of January 8, 2016. Aurasian Minerals is another faller after it said talks on the sale of its stake in the Wamum gold-copper project in Papua New Guinea are progressing slowly. Aurasian still expects to sign a deal in the near future. The company also said Tony Shearer will step down as chairman as Aurasian moves towards the exploration phase.
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Top Economics And General
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The Chancellor is working on an emergency UK tax cut in a bid to reverse the decline in investment in the North Sea, The Sunday Times reported. George Osborne told the paper that "more action" is needed to boost the industry after the fall in the oil price to USD49 per barrel, down 57% in the last six months. The fall in the oil price has resulted in a sharp fall in North Sea drilling and a slew of job and pay cuts. "I don’t want to pre-empt the budget but I can see that may well involve further reducing the burden of tax on investment in the North Sea," said Osborne.
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The British economy expanded at a slower pace in the fourth quarter, results of a survey by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, or NIESR, showed Friday. According to the NIESR GDP estimate, Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth slowed to 0.6% in the fourth quarter from 0.7% in the third quarter. The NIESR said that GDP grew 2.6% annually in 2014. This follows a 1.7% rise in 2013.
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The euro area region is set to expand moderately in the first and second quarters of 2015, a joint report published by statistical offices in France and Italy and Germany's Ifo Institute said. Gross domestic product is forecast to grow 0.3% each in the first and second quarters, mainly driven by domestic demand. Investment is set to pick up moderately. It is forecast to grow 0.2% in the first quarter and 0.3% in second quarter. The appreciation of the dollar vis-a-vis the euro will enhance external trade, the report said. Despite low inflation, consumption is likely to evolve at the same speed as GDP, up 0.3% per quarter in the first half of 2015.
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Ireland's construction sector maintained its strong growth momentum at the end of the year, as new orders continued to expand sharply, survey data from Markit Economics showed. The Ulster Bank Construction Purchasing Mangers' index fell slightly to 63.1 in December from 63.5 in the previous month. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. The average reading for 2014 as a whole was the highest since the series began in mid-2000.
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Japan's government raised the economic growth estimates marginally for the fiscal year 2015. The real economic growth is estimated to reach 1.5% compared to the prior forecast of 1.4%, the Cabinet Office said. In nominal terms, GDP is forecast to rise 2.7%, slightly below the previous estimate of 2.8%.
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Europe, the US and Canada will step up their fight against terrorism and do more to tackle the challenge posed by foreign fighters in the wake of this week's attacks on Paris, French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said Sunday. "We are determined to fight together against terrorism," he said after hosting talks in Paris with US Attorney General Eric Holder, Canadian Public Safety Minister Steven Blaney and ministers from 10 other European countries facing the issue of Western citizens returning from fighting in foreign Islamist campaigns.
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More than 3.7 million people took to the streets of France on Sunday to honour the 17 victims killed in the terrorist attacks that rocked the country in the past week. Joining the march in Paris were 40 world leaders, who locked arms in a show of unity against terrorism and extremism.
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Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras promised Saturday that he has a plan to create 770,000 new jobs by 2021 should he be returned to office in snap elections later this month. He made his comments in a campaign speech televised nationally. The promised jobs would be in seven key areas, including tourism, shipping, agriculture and pharmaceuticals. They would pump up Greek gross domestic product by EUR54 billion. Greece's unemployment rate currently stands at about 26%. Samaras also promised tax relief and a reform of the social welfare system.
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Indonesian Navy divers on Monday retrieved the flight data recorder from the AirAsia plane that crashed last month with 162 people on board, the search chief said. "At 7.11 am the search team managed to lift a part of the black box, namely flight data recorder," said Bambang Sulistyo, the head of the National Search and Rescue Agency. The device was wedged beneath a wing of the aircraft, he said. The cockpit voice recorder had not been found, Bambang said.
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Afternoon Watchlist (all times in GMT)

15:00 US Labor Market Conditions Index
17:40 US Fed's Lockhart speech
23:50 Japan Bank lending
23:50 Japan Current Account
23:50 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis
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Monday's Key UK Corporate Events

Debenhams - Interim Management Statement
Synety Group - Trading Statement
WM Morrisons Supermarkets - Trading Statement
Rathbone Brothers - Trading Statement
SIG - 2014 Trading Statement
Ashmore Group - Q2 Trading Statement
Carrs Milling Industries - Interim Management Statement
Mears Group - Trading Statement
Michael Page International - Q4 Trading Statement
Spirit Pub Company - Interim Management Statement
ASOS - Christmas press statement
IDOX - Full Year Results
Greggs - Trading Statement
Cairn Energy - Operational Update
UK Mail Group - Q3 Interim Management Statement
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Tuesday's Key Economic Events (all times in GMT)

00:01 UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor
02:00 China M2 Money Supply
02:00 China New Loans
02:00 China Trade Balance
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey
09:00 Italy Industrial Output
09:30 UK Consumer Price Index
09:30 UK DCLG House Price Index
09:30 UK Producer Price Index
09:30 UK Retail Price Index
12:30 US NFIB Business Optimism Index
13:55 US Redbook index
15:00 US JOLTS Job Openings
19:00 US Monthly Budget Statement
23:50 Japan Money Supply M2+CD
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Contact: +44 207 199 0340; newsroom@alliancenews.com; @AllNewsTeam

Copyright 2015 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.

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