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UK power generators: sell the news after budget?

Tue, 15th Nov 2022 16:00

Main U.S. indexes advance, but off best levels: Nasdaq up ~2.1%

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Cons disc leads S&P 500 sector gainers; energy sole loser

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Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.3%

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Dollar, crude fall; gold ~flat; bitcoin gains

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U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield falls to ~3.80%

Nov 15 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at

UK POWER GENERATORS: SELL THE NEWS AFTER BUDGET? (1100 EST/1600 GMT)

Thursday is budget day in the UK and power generators are among the potential losers should finance minister Jeremy Hunt get on with plans for a big increase in windfall tax.

Yet, some see scope for a sell the news reaction.

"Speculation in the UK press over the weekend has centred on a windfall tax increase to 35% for both oil & gas companies and power generators," say analysts at UK bank Barclays.

"We will have details Thursday 17 November. Power generator share prices reflect more than our worst-case government intervention scenarios, and we expect clarity to drive a rerating," they argue.

Shares in UK power generators SSE, National Grid and Drax have fallen 9%, 11% and 24% respectively over the last three months, clearly lagging the FTSE 350 index, as you see in the chart.

For more on the budget: GRAPHIC-Sterling, Big Oil and homebuilders: the winners and losers from upcoming UK budget

SIMMER DOWN, NOW: PPI CONFIRMS INFLATION COOL-DOWN, EMPIRE STATE BOUNCES BACK (1042 EST/1542 GMT)

Two-fer Tuesday brought with it a welcome data double-shot, showing further evidence of cooling inflation and a rebound in New York manufacturing.

Since the "I" word has been everyone's favorite obsession this year, let's start with the Labor Department's Producer Prices index (PPI).

PPI, which measures the prices U.S. companies get for their goods and services at the proverbial factory door, echoed last week's CPI report by cooling down much faster than analysts expected.

"Inflation is starting to dwindle in the pipeline, and obviously that will show up in consumer inflation as well," says Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. "This is good news for the markets and good news for the consumer. It confirms that we've peaked in inflation.

The headline "final demand" number notched a 0.2% monthly increase - half the consensus rate - and shed 0.4 percentage point on a yearly basis to an even 8%.

Core PPI, which strips away volatile food, energy and trade services prices, also cooled down, to 0.2% and 5.4%, on monthly and annual bases, respectively.

With respect to "intermediate demand," which tracks business-to-business prices, an 11.7% monthly plunge in raw materials bodes well for consumer prices down the pike.

All told, the report supports the case for the Fed easing its hawkish foot off the rate hike accelerator in December.

Financial markets have now priced in an 85% likelihood of a smaller, 50 basis point interest rate hike next month, and nearly 55% chances of an even tinier 25 basis point hike at the central bank's February meeting.

The graphic below shows core PPI along with other major indicators, and where they sit relative to Powell & Co's average annual 2% inflation target. PPI is the third consecutive data point (after wage growth and CPI) to suggest we turned the corner last month:

The award for best performance by an indicator in a supporting role goes to east coast factories.

The New York Fed's Empire State index surprised to the upside, delivering a reading of 4.5 and unexpectedly bouncing back to expansion territory in November after three months of moving in reverse.

An Empire State number above zero signifies a monthly increase of activity.

On a granular level, however, it's a mixed picture.

Shipments increased, but new orders softened. Inventories rebounded, employment continues to expand, but the prices paid component - moving in opposition to PPI - gathered heat.

"Although manufacturing activity returned to expansion, activity is expected to slow heading into 2023," writes Gurleen Chadha, U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. "Weakening domestic demand, high inflation, elevated interest rates, and recessionary pressures are likely to constrain the sector's advance."

A clearer picture of Atlantic regional manufacturing will be provided on Thursday, when the Philly Fed data hits the boards.

Wall Street liked the data just fine, veering sharply higher at the opening bell.

Communication services, along with other FANG-related mega-caps, as well as chips, are leading the way, boosting the tech-laden Nasdaq more than 11% above its Oct. 14 trough.

GREEN MACHINE (1012 EST/1512 GMT)

Wall Street's main indexes are sharply higher early on Tuesday as U.S. producer prices rose less than expected in October, providing fresh evidence of cooling inflation and boosting hopes of smaller interest rate hikes.

With this, the Nasdaq is posting a gain of around 2.5%. The DJI and S&P 500 are both up around 1% or more.

All S&P 500 sectors are green with tech leading the way higher. Chips and FANGs are outperforming with both indexes, rising around 4%.

Of note, the SPX is now within 1.5% of its descending 200-day moving average, which is now around 4,075. The 200-DMA capped strength in late-August.

Here is an early trade snapshot:

U.S. STOCK FUTURES POP ON MORE PEACEFUL PPI (0900 EST/1400 GMT)

U.S. stock index futures have strengthened in the wake of cooler than expected inflation data released at 0830 EST/1330 GMT.

October headline PPI month-over-month and year-over-year were weaker than the prior month and below estimates, as were ex-food and energy readings:

Stock futures were higher ahead of the numbers after a meeting between President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in which they pledged more frequent communications.

In the wake of the data, Nasdaq 100 futures, which had been up as much as 1.6%, are now up nearly 3%.

According to the CME's tool, the market now sees a 91% chance of a 50 basis point Fed rate hike at the December meeting from 89% before the data was released. There is now a 9% chance of a 75 basis point increase, down from 11% before the numbers.

All S&P 500 sector SPDR funds are quoted up in premarket trade with tech, consumer discretionary and communication services posting the biggest gains.

The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield has hit a six-week low on the charts, and the U.S. dollar index has hit a 14-week low.

Regarding the PPI data, Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth said, "The headline number is way better than expected, and the core number is again way better than expected. It's going to confirm people’s hopes that inflation is starting to turn the corner. It's going to give the market more confidence."

Here is a premarket snapshot taken shortly before 0900 EST:

FOR TUESDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EST/1400 GMT - CLICK HERE:

More News
8 Sep 2023 10:27

SSE, RWE, SIMEC secure UK renewables bids, but offshore wind absent

(Alliance News) - SSE PLC, RWE AG and SIMEC Atlantis Energy Ltd on Friday celebrated their latest contract wins to provide renewables for the UK under the contracts for difference scheme, as the government faced criticism for failing to secure any offshore wind bids.

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29 Aug 2023 17:55

IN BRIEF: SSE issues EUR750m green bond to finance renewables projects

SSE PLC - Perth, Scotland-based electricity generation, transmission and distribution firm - Issues a EUR750 million 8-year green bond maturing September 5, 2031 at a fixed coupon of 4.0%. Explains the issuance is SSE's largest senior single tranche, and sixth green bond in seven years, and takes the firm's total issued green bonds to over GBP3.2 billion. Says it continues to make progress with delivery of its enhanced GBP18 billion net zero acceleration programme plus, set out in May 2023, which will see it more than double its renewables capacity by 2027. The green bond proceeds are earmarked to help finance and/or refinance SSE renewables projects currently under construction or recently completed such as Viking and Seagreen wind farms, as well as the world's largest offshore wind farm at Dogger Bank.

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23 Aug 2023 12:10

LONDON MARKET MIDDAY: Stocks rise but pound slumps on sub-par UK data

(Alliance News) - Stocks in Europe were on the up heading into Wednesday afternoon, with equity markets in a confident mood on the eve of the Jackson Hole central banking event, shaking off tepid economic data which hurt the pound and euro.

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23 Aug 2023 10:13

RBC picks National Grid and SSE as top utility stocks

(Sharecast News) - RBC has cut its target prices for a host of UK utility stocks, but highlighted networks National Grid and SSE as its top picks in the sector.

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23 Aug 2023 09:03

LONDON BROKER RATINGS: UBS and Deutsche Bank cut BHP price target

(Alliance News) - The following London-listed shares received analyst recommendations Wednesday morning:

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23 Aug 2023 07:51

LONDON BRIEFING: Reckitt names Nike's Shannon Eisenhardt as new CFO

(Alliance News) - Stocks in London are expected to add to Tuesday's gains at Wednesday's market open, having snapped a seven-day losing streak.

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14 Aug 2023 09:04

LONDON BROKER RATINGS: JPMorgan raises Quilter to 'neutral'

(Alliance News) - The following London-listed shares received analyst recommendations on Monday morning and Friday:

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2 Aug 2023 05:44

UK's Grant Shapps convenes summit with energy giants in Downing Street

(Alliance News) - The UK's energy industry leaders will gather in Downing Street on Wednesday to discuss economic growth and energy security with Grant Shapps.

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25 Jul 2023 11:50

IN BRIEF: SSE fined GBP10 million by UK regulator for license breach

SSE PLC - Perth, Scotland-based electricity generation, transmission and distribution - UK energy industry regulator Ofgem fines subsidiary SSE Generation Ltd GBP9.8 million for breaching its generation licence. Ofgem says the penalty must be paid into its voluntary redress fund no later than September 5. The regulator found that SSE had "secured excessive payments" from the Electricity System Operator "during periods of what is known as 'transmission constraint'".

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25 Jul 2023 09:01

LONDON BROKER RATINGS: Auto Trader and Moneysupermarket ratings cut

(Alliance News) - The following London-listed shares received analyst recommendations Tuesday morning:

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24 Jul 2023 10:34

Director dealings: Mind Gym founder invests, SSE board member sells down

(Sharecast News) - Mind Gym was at the top of the list of director buys on Monday afternoon, after its co-founder and president picked up almost 0.83 million shares.

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20 Jul 2023 16:16

UK dividends calendar - next 7 days

Friday 21 July 
abrdn Japan Investment Trustdividend payment date
C&C Group PLCdividend payment date
Experian PLCdividend payment date
ICG Enterprise Trust PLCdividend payment date
Impax Asset Management Group PLCdividend payment date
JPMorgan European Growth & Income PLCdividend payment date
Land Securities Group PLCdividend payment date
Learning Technologies Group PLCdividend payment date
Montanaro UK Smaller Cos Investment Trust PLCex-dividend payment date
RS Group PLCdividend payment date
RWS Holdings PLCdividend payment date
Urban Logistics REIT PLCdividend payment date
Monday 24 July 
no events scheduled 
Tuesday 25 July 
Brunner Investment Trust PLCdividend payment date
Wednesday 26 July 
Airtel Africa PLCdividend payment date
Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLCdividend payment date
Camellia PLCdividend payment date
Ecora Resources PLCdividend payment date
Worldwide Healthcare Trust PLCdividend payment date
Thursday 27 July 
abrdn Asian Income Fund Ltdex-dividend payment date
AEW UK REIT PLCex-dividend payment date
Bankers Investment Trust PLCex-dividend payment date
Bellevue Healthcare Trust PLCex-dividend payment date
BlackRock Throgmorton Trust PLCex-dividend payment date
Bloomsbury Publishing PLCex-dividend payment date
City of London Investment Trust PLCex-dividend payment date
Compass Group PLCdividend payment date
CQS Natural Resources Growth & Income PLCex-dividend payment date
CQS New City High Yield Fund Ltdex-dividend payment date
Diverse Income Trust PLCex-dividend payment date
Ecofin Global Utilities & Infrastructure Trust PLCex-dividend payment date
Fidelity China Special Situations PLCdividend payment date
Fuller, Smith & Turner PLCdividend payment date
GCP Asset Backed Income Fund Ltdex-dividend payment date
Henderson Far East Income Ltdex-dividend payment date
Henderson International Income Trust PLCex-dividend payment date
International Biotechnology Trust PLCex-dividend payment date
JPMorgan Asia Growth & Income PLCex-dividend payment date
JPMorgan China Growth & Income PLCex-dividend payment date
JPMorgan Claverhouse Investment Trust PLCex-dividend payment date
Mears Group PLCdividend payment date
MoneySupermarket.com Group PLCex-dividend payment date
Monks Investment Trust PLCex-dividend payment date
Nexteq PLCex-dividend payment date
PayPoint PLCex-dividend payment date
Qinetiq Group PLCex-dividend payment date
Redcentric PLCex-dividend payment date
Serica Energy PLCdividend payment date
Smart Metering Systems PLCdividend payment date
Sportech PLCex-dividend payment date
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VPC Specialty Lending Investments PLCdividend payment date
  
Copyright 2023 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

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20 Jul 2023 09:23

SSE reaffirms guidance despite quarterly shortfall on dry weather

(Alliance News) - SSE PLC on Thursday reaffirmed its annual earnings per share guidance, but bemoaned the impact of dry weather after experiencing a shortfall over the first quarter.

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20 Jul 2023 07:02

SSE reiterates full-year earnings target

(Sharecast News) - SSE reiterated its full-year earnings guidance on Thursday, despite dry, still weather hitting renewables output.

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13 Jul 2023 15:58

UK shareholder meetings calendar - next 7 days

Friday 14 July 
Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust PLCAGM
Monday 17 July 
All ThingsConsidered Group PLCAGM
Tower Resources PLCAGM
Tuesday 18 July 
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Bloomsbury Publishing PLCAGM
CT Property Trust LtdGM re takeover by LondonMetric Property
e-Therapeutics PLCAGM
MobilityOne LtdEGM re Tete planned JV deadline extension
SmartSpace Software PLCAGM
Strategic Minerals PLCAGM
Wynnstay Properties PLCAGM
Wednesday 19 July 
Berkeley Energia LtdAGM
Caledonian Trust PLCAGM
DG Innovate PLCAGM
Experian PLCAGM
HICL Infrastructure PLCAGM
Mind Gym PLCAGM
Sportech PLCGM re share capital restructure
Triple Point Income VCT PLCAGM
Thursday 20 July 
ACG Acquisition Co LtdEGM re acquisition of the Atlantic Nickel
Big Yellow Group PLCAGM
CT UK High Income Trust PLCAGM
Evgen Pharma PLCAGM
FD Technologies PLCAGM
Fuller, Smith & Turner PLCAGM
GB Group PLCAGM
Halma PLCAGM
Intermediate Capital Group PLCAGM
International Distributions Services PLCAGM
Fidelity China Special Situations PLCAGM
Johnson Matthey PLCAGM
Kingspan Group PLCEGM re delisting
Pennon Group PLCAGM
Premier Foods PLCAGM
Premier Miton Group PLCAGM
Qinetiq Group PLCAGM
SSE PLCAGM
TR Property Investment Trust PLCAGM
VP PLCAGM
Weiss Korea Opportunity Fund LtdAGM
  
Copyright 2023 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

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