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LONDON MARKET CLOSE: Remain-led Polls Drive "Frenzy Of Buying"

Mon, 20th Jun 2016 16:00

LONDON (Alliance News) - London stocks ended higher Monday, with financial stocks and housebuilders leading the gainers, after polls released over the weekend gave the Remain campaign the lead ahead of the EU referendum on Thursday.

"The frenzy of buying that has been seen across global markets over the past few hours matches the panic selling we witnessed last week," said IG senior market analyst Chris Beauchamp. "Investors have rushed back to buy up stocks, currencies and commodities in a similar fashion to the way in which they abandoned them a few days ago."

The FTSE 100 ended up 3.0%, or 182.91 points, at 6,204.00. The FTSE 250 added 3.3%, or 537.07 points, to 16,959.11, while the AIM All-Share rose 1.1%, or 8.11 points, to 722.00.

IG analyst Joshua Mahony said that "in some ways, it took the tragic death of [Labour MP] Jo Cox for people to wake up to the positive message that she purveyed on the benefits of integration and tolerance."

"Perhaps it is a coincidence, but that incident has seemingly formed a turning point for the 'Remain' campaign, with the improved fortunes of both polls and the pound ever since," Mahony noted.

The first opinion polls since the murder of Jo Cox last Thursday showed a swing in favour of remaining in the EU. A poll by Survation on behalf of the Mail on Sunday showed Remain on 45%, compared to 42% for Leave.

In addition, a poll by YouGov for the Sunday Times found support for Remain rose 5 percentage points to 44%, with the Leave campaign falling three points to 43%.

"Markets will no doubt continue to react to every twist and turn in opinion polls over the next three days," said analysts at Capital Economics.

Capital Economics noted that there are at least six further polls expected ahead of the referendum, with ICM and Opinium expected later Monday, ORB and ComRes on Tuesday, and YouGov and another from Opinium due on Wednesday.

In Europe, the CAC 40 index in Paris was up 3.5% and the DAX 30 in Frankfurt was adding 3.4%.

In New York, stocks were also higher, with the Dow 30 up 1.3%, the S&P 500 up 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 1.7%.

Following the results of the polls, the pound rallied, quoted at USD1.4689 at the London equities close Monday, higher than the USD1.4264 seen at the close Friday. On Thursday, sterling touched a low of USD1.4011, a level it hasn't seen since February.

Like the pound, the euro rose against the dollar, quoted at USD1.1318 at the close. The single currency stood at USD1.1248 at the close Friday.

Financial stocks and housebuilders benefited the most from receding Brexit fears among investors, with the FTSE 350 Life Insurance/Assurance sector index adding 5.2%, the FTSE 350 Banks sector index up 4.3%, and the FTSE 350 House Goods & Home Construction sector index up 3.9%.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group was the best blue-chip performer, up 7.3%, joined by fund supermarket Hargreaves Lansdown, up 6.2%, and housebuilder Barratt Developments, up 6.6%.

Shares in lender Shawbrook Group rose 15%, the biggest gainer in the FTSE 250, while Bovis Homes Group ended up 7.7%.

Randgold Resources and Fresnillo were among the few decliners in the FTSE 100, down 2.3% and 1.0%, respectively.

The gold miners suffered from a decline in the precious metal's price. Gold was quoted at USD1,285.75 an ounce at the London close, compared to USD1,286.70 at the equities close on Friday, and down from the USD1,298.10 seen at the end of the day Friday. In addition, gold touched a high of USD1,315.44 on Thursday, a level it hasn't seen since August 2014.

Meanwhile, Brent oil went back above the USD50 line, quoted at USD50.39 a barrel at the close, compared to USD48.39 at the same time Friday.

Elsewhere in the FTSE 250, Circassia Pharmaceuticals ended down 66%, by far the worst performer, after it said a late-stage study of its key cat allergy treatment failed to achieve its primary endpoint, as the treatment and a placebo used in the study proved equally effective.

Beyond the negative outcome being bad news for Circassia's cat allergy treatment, it has knock on implications for the company's entire strategy, as it has a number of allergy products in various stages of development in its pipeline which will now be called into question.

Chief Executive Steve Harris said that Circassia was "surprised and disappointed" by the results, and said the company will now review the full dataset from the trial to assess if any other factors affected the trial's outcome, as well as the implications for the rest of its allergy portfolio.

In the UK corporate calendar, Whitbread, Saga and Petrofac issue trading statements. Chemring Group and Photo-Me International release full-year results.

In the economic calendar, early Tuesday, the Bank of Japan releases the minutes from its last monetary policy meeting. The UK's public sector net borrowing data are due at 0930 BST, while Germany's ZEW survey of economic sentiment is at 1000 BST, and the UK's CBI industrial trends survey is at 1100 BST. In the US, the Redbook index is at 1355 BST, while API crude oil stock data are at 2130 BST.

Also Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will address the Senate Banking Committee at its "Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress" hearing at 1930 BST.

By Daniel Ruiz; danielruiz@alliancenews.com

Copyright 2016 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.

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