By Nerijus Adomaitis
OSLO, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Global oil demand will peak in2023 as electric vehicles (EVs) become competitive with carsfuelled by petrol and diesel, and after 2040 no new oildevelopments will likely be needed, quality assurance and riskmanagement firm DNV GL said on Monday.
The forecast from the Norway-headquartered firm, whichoffers certification and consultancy services to around 100,000customers globally, adds to investors' worries about some oilassets becoming stranded if demand enters into permanentdecline.
"Amid declining consumption in the future, we see littlescope for adding capacity in high-cost areas, such as in theArctic," DNV GL said in its long-term forecast, highlightingsuch a risk.
By around mid-2030s, EVs will account for half of all newlight-duty vehicles sold in the world, and 10 years later halfof all road transport, light and heavy, will be electric, itadded. The transport sector is the main user of oil.
"After 2040 we will likely enter a period where new oilfields are not required to replace depleted fields," DNV GLsaid, adding that by 2050 oil demand is expected to be about ahalf of its peak.
Demand for natural gas is expected to grow until themid-2030s, when capital spending on non-fossil energy willovertake spending on fossil energy, DNV GL said in its report.
"The attention of boardrooms and cabinets should be fixed onthe dramatic energy transition that is unfolding," said RemiEriksen, the group's president and chief executive.
Investors are increasingly worried that some oil and gasassets could be left in the ground as a result of stricterregulations to curb carbon emissions and the fall in costs ofrenewable energy and car batteries.
Oil majors have different views on possible oil demand peak,but all say that even if demand peaks, trillions of dollars ofinvestments in oil and gas will still be needed to develop newbarrels due to the natural decline of existing fields.
Exxon Mobil, the world's largest listed oil company,said on Feb. 2 that oil demand could fall by 25 percent toaround 78 million barrels per day (mbd) from the current levelsif governments choose to implement measures to limit globalwarming.
The company, however, did not disclose how efforts to limitcarbon emissions would impact its business. In a separate reportit said that excluding those climate measures, oil demand isexpected to grow by 20 percent by 2040, driven by commercialtransport and the chemical industry.
In April, Anglo-Dutch Shell said it saw littlerisk of having "stranded assets" in its portfolio, becausefour-fifths of its current oil and gas reserves would beextracted before 2030.
Shell, which has been producing oil since 1907, sees the oildemand peaking as early as the end of the next decade, while itsLondon-based peer BP sees it coming a decadelater.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), whichadvises industrialized nations on energy policy, sees oil demandrising to 105 mbd by 2040 under its central New Policiesscenario, based on existing legislation and announced plans.(Reporting by Nerijus Adomaitis; Editing by Will Dunham)
