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LONDON BRIEFING: Strong Jobs Data Could Clinch US Interest Rate Hike

Fri, 02nd Dec 2016 08:23

LONDON (Alliance News) - Markets have for some time been expecting a US interest rate hike later this month, but US jobs figures due Friday could seal the deal.

The monthly nonfarm payrolls report is due at 1330 GMT, and a strong reading would be seen as making a rate hike decision at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on December 13 and 14 a near certainty. The Fed last raised US interest rates to their current level of 0.50% at the December meeting in 2015.

Also of interest for the London market Friday will be the UK construction PMI reading at 0930 GMT.

Here is what you need to know at the London market open:
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MARKETS
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FTSE 100: down 0.7% at 6,704.29
FTSE 250: down 0.5% at 17,414.43
AIM ALL-SHARE: down 0.4% at 810.37
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Hang Seng: closed down 1.3% at 22,581.25
Nikkei 225: closed down 0.5% at 18,426.08
DJIA: closed up 0.4% at 19,191.93
S&P 500: closed down 0.4% at 2,191.08
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GBP: up at USD1.2620 (USD1.2588)
EUR: up at USD1.0673 (USD1.0628)

GOLD: up at USD1,174.40 per ounce (USD1,169.88)
OIL (Brent): down at USD53.27 a barrel (USD54.09)

(changes since previous London equities close)
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ECONOMICS AND GENERAL
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Friday's Key Economic Events still to come
(all times in GMT)

0930 UK PMI construction
1000 EU producer price index
1330 US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, participation rate, hourly earnings
1330 Canada unemployment rate, participation rate, labour productivity
1445 US ISM New York index
1800 US Baker Hughes US oil rig count
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Zac Goldsmith has been unseated from his Richmond Park & North Kingston constituency in a "shockwave" UK by-election upset by the Liberal Democrats. Lib Dem challenger Sarah Olney bulldozed Goldsmith out of the Commons, sweeping away his 23,015 majority to finish 1,872 votes ahead of him. The Lib Dems poured resources into the contest as they successfully switched the focus of the campaign to Brexit in the staunchly Remain west London seat after Goldsmith quit as a Tory MP to force the by-election so he could run as an anti-Heathrow expansion independent. The result saw Olney poll 20,510 votes to Goldsmith's 18,638, on a turnout of 41,367, or 53.6%.
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A flexible approach to immigration controls has been signalled by UK Brexit Secretary David Davis, who said it was in no one's interest for key British industries to suffer labour shortages. Davis told business leaders that changes to migration rules after withdrawal from the EU would not be allowed to damage the economy. He told Confederation of British Industry Wales in Cardiff: "As we take back control of immigration by ending free movement as it has operated before, let me also say that we won't do so in a way which is contrary to the national economic interest." The intervention came after staunch Leave campaigner Davis provoked anger among Brexit MPs by saying the UK could pay Brussels to obtain the best possible access to the single market after it quits the bloc.
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UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson is to warn the world risks slipping back into a "brutal" era where strong men dominate and democracy is in retreat in his first major speech in the role on Friday, insisting the UK must retain a leadership role in world affairs after Brexit. Johnson will make it clear he disagrees with Donald Trump's campaign stance that America may not come to the defence of some of the Baltic States unless they make a bigger financial contribution to Nato, but is backing the US president-elect's call for members of the organisation to ease the cost burden on Washington.
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French President Francois Hollande said he will not stand for a second term in next year's election, amid the lowest approval ratings of any president in modern French history. In a television address, the president said he reached his decision taking into account the need to unify the country. He decried the splintering of the left in the face of challenges from conservative and far-right parties. Hollande has registered dismal popularity ratings in recent months, receiving approval ratings of 4% in an October survey.
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Switzerland's economic growth remained flat in the third quarter as increase in investment was offset by net trade, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said. Gross domestic product registered nil growth in third quarter after expanding 0.6% a quarter ago. The economy was forecast to grow 0.3%. Year-on-year, GDP growth slowed to 1.3% from 2% in the second quarter. The annual rate was weaker than the expected 1.8% expansion.
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The European Commission has approved Germany's plan to introduce a road toll on its motorways, top transport officials from both sides said. Two revisions to the controversial plan helped it survive EU legal scrutiny, ending three years of talks between Brussels and Berlin over whether the controversial levy discriminates against foreign drivers on German roads.
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The Islamic State extremist organization is planning fresh terrorist attacks in Europe in the near future, European law enforcement agency Europol warned in a report published in the Hague. Defeats in Iraq and Syria and an increase in the number of returning fighters heightened the risk of attacks in western Europe, according to the report from Europol's Counter-Terrorism Centre.
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The US Senate extended for 10 years legislation that enables sanctions to be levied against Iran. Ninety-nine lawmakers in the 100-member chamber approved the legislation on sanctions that have been lifted under the international deal on Tehran's nuclear programme. Lawmakers from both parties describe the legislation as critical to holding Iran accountable by giving the US the ability to quickly reinstate sanctions if Tehran violates the deal.
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US president-elect Donald Trump said he plans to name retired general James Mattis to be defence secretary. In a rally with supporters in Cincinnati, Ohio, Trump referred to the general by his nickname. "We are going to appoint 'Mad Dog' Mattis as our secretary of defence," he said. Mattis is known for his outspoken style, which is considered the source of his nickname. Mattis was a battalion commander in the first Gulf War, commanded Task Force 58 in Afghanistan and led the 1st Marine infantry division during the 2003 Iraq invasion. Mattis is an outspoken opponent of the international nuclear deal with Iran and has become an increasingly vocal critic of Obama's strategies in Iraq, Afghanistan and the overall war on terrorism.
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Trump vowed that US companies will not be able to take their operations outside the country "without consequences". Speaking at a plant in Indiana after negotiating with executives to keep the factory in the US, Trump said he meant to send a signal to other companies.
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Trump and Republicans in Congress have pledged to repeal the healthcare reform law known as Obamacare, but the results of a Kaiser Health Tracking Poll found that Americans are largely divided on the future of the Affordable Care Act. The poll conducted after last month's elections found that 26% of Americans want the entire law to be repealed, while 17% would like to see the law scaled back. Meanwhile, 30% said Obamacare should be expanded and another 19% said lawmakers should move forward with implementing the law as it exists.
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The ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee called for a formal investigation into Russian interference in the US election. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire sent a letter to committee chairman Bob Corker, reportedly on president-elect Donald Trump's short-list for secretary of state, calling for the inquiry. She pointed to findings by the US intelligence community alleging that Russian government actions such as hacking of emails and promotion of so-called fake news were "intended to interfere with the US election process."
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Japan's gross domestic product increased for a second straight month in October, the Japan Center For Economic Research said in a report. Gross domestic product rose 0.2% from September, when the measure increased at the same pace, the monthly estimate from the JCER showed.
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South Korea's three opposition parties will vote December 9 on an impeachment motion against embattled President Park Geun Hye, local media reported. The three parties have agreed to propose the motion and to persuade members of Park's own Saenuri Party to take part in the vote, South Korean news agency Yonhap reported. The vote will take place even if Park announces a plan outlining an early resignation, the agency reported.
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More than 200,000 conservative Indonesian Muslims filled a square in Jakarta on Friday to demand the arrest of the city's Christian governor over remarks they perceived as insulting to Islam. Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, a key ally of President Joko Widodo, is facing trial in a blasphemy case over comments he made in which he accused his critics of misusing the Koran to prevent him from winning another term.
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BROKER RATING CHANGES
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GOLDMAN RAISES IMPERIAL BRANDS TO CONVICTION BUY LIST (BUY) - PRICE TARGET 4130 (4300) P
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BERENBERG INITIATES MENZIES (JOHN) WITH 'BUY' - TARGET 660 PENCE
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BERENBERG INITIATES MCBRIDE WITH 'BUY' - TARGET 220 PENCE
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GOLDMAN CUTS BRITVIC TO 'NEUTRAL' ('CONVICTION BUY LIST') - TARGET 600 (810) P
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COMPANIES - FTSE 100
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Drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline said its Relvar Ellipta treatment for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease has been approved in Japan. The inhaler has been approved by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour & Welfare for COPD, having been approved for asthma treatment in 2013.
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BP late Thursday said it has sanctioned the USD9.00 billion Mad Dog Phase 2 project in the Gulf of Mexico that is expected to produce up to 140,000 barrels of oil per day from "late 2021". The project will pump oil from up to 14 production wells and BP and its partners have chosen to push ahead with the project while oil prices are low, which has in turn pushed down the cost of equipment and project development.
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Carnival's Princess Cruise Lines has agreed to plead guilty to seven felony charges stemming from its deliberate pollution of the seas and intentional acts to cover it up. Princess has also agreed to pay a USD40 million penalty, which is the largest-ever penalty involving deliberate vessel pollution. The agreement was announced by Assistant Attorney General John Cruden for the Department of Justice's Environment & Natural Resources Division and US Attorney Wifredo Ferrer for the Southern District of Florida in Miami, Florida.
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COMPANIES - FTSE 250
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Laird outlined plans for a rights issue of new shares in the first quarter of 2017 and said it will target a reduction in its debt pile in the medium term. The company, which makes components to protect electronic devices from electromagnetic interference and heat, said trading remained in line with its expectations, but it will pay no final dividend for 2016. Laird will raise up to GBP185.0 million in the rights issue, due to take place in the first quarter of 2017 and to be underwritten by JPMorgan Cazenove. In addition to the planned rights issue, Laird will enter talks with its lenders to try to restructure its debt facilities.
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Berkeley Group Holdings said reservation levels remain 20% down on the same period the prior year, though said both revenue and profit grew in the first half of its financial year. The housebuilder, which almost exclusively focuses on more-expensive developments in London and the South East of England, said higher property transaction costs and uncertainty relating to the Brexit vote have impacted transaction levels throughout 2016. Berkeley said, excluding a "hiatus" around the EU referendum in the UK, reservations for the period remain 20% below the prior year, but noted that the market has "begun to adjust to the increased stamp duty and general market uncertainty".
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Security services company G4S said it has agreed to sell its Israeli business for GBP88.0 million to FIMI Opportunity Funds, an Israel-based private equity company. G4S has been the target of pro-Palestinian activists in Israel in recent years as it offers services and equipment to Israeli prisons, including the Ofer Prison in the occupied West Bank. G4S said it will retain a presence in Israel through its ownership and continued investment in the country's national police training centre Policity. It will partner with FIMI and Shikun & Binui, an Israeli infrastructure and real estate group on that project.
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Defence outsourcer QinetiQ Group said it has been awarded a GBP1.00 billion amendment to a contract with the UK Ministry of Defence for test and evaluation services. Under the agreement, QinetiQ will modernise and operate air ranges at MoD Aberporth and MoD Hebrides, and will test aircrew training at the Empire Test Pilots' School at MoD Boscombe Down. The MoD and QinetiQ will invest around GBP180.0 million in modernising the facilities, equipment and in developing new ways of working, the company said.
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COMPANIES - LONDON MAIN MARKET AND AIM
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James Halstead said trading so far in its financial year has been challenging and warned that it will be difficult to make progress against the comparative period the year before. The flooring company said in the first five months of its financial year it has continued to see UK revenue below the first five months of the prior year. While it has not lost any market share, "the market is lower than last year with the best estimate of this reduction being 4-5%", James Halstead said.
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UK regional newspaper publisher Johnston Press said Chairman Ian Russell is to step down at the end of the year due to an "acute illness in his family". Russell will be replaced on January 1 on an interim basis by Camilla Rhodes, currently senior independent director of Johnston Press.
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COMPANIES - INTERNATIONAL
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A team led by Chinese conglomerate Citic Group and US-based private equity house Carlyle has emerged as the final global group seeking to buy McDonald's China franchise, a deal that could fetch between USD2 billion and USD3 billion, according to reports citing people familiar with the deal. The reports indicated that TPG Capital and Bain Capital, two other global contenders originally involved in the deal for the fast-food chain's 2,800 outlets in China, have dropped out of the process. That has left Citic Group and its partner Carlyle as the favoured bidder.
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A federal jury in Dallas has returned a combined verdict of more than USD1 billion on behalf of six people who suffered serious medical complications caused by defective metal-on-metal hip implants made by Johnson & Johnson and its subsidiary DePuy Orthopaedics, Lanier Law Firm said. The verdict includes more than USD30 million in actual damages for the six plaintiffs and more than USD1 billion in punitive damages assessed against Johnson & Johnson and DePuy.
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Bank holding company Wells Fargo, amid struggles to re-establish itself after the fake-account scandal, said it has separated the roles of chairman and chief executive officer formally, by amending the company's by-laws. The amendment is also for the chairman and vice chairman of the board to be independent directors.
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Friday's Shareholder Meetings

DFS Furniture
Baillie Gifford Japan Trust
PureCircle
Quadrise Fuels International
Axa Property Trust
Fidelity Asian Values
Electra Private Equity (re proposed return on capital)
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By Tom Waite; thomaslwaite@alliancenews.com; @thomaslwaite

Copyright 2016 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.

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