JPMorgan Cazenove has lifted its recommendation for Lloyds Banking Group from 'neutral' to 'overweight' saying that there is upside risk to new lowered forecasts following the bank's results.Lloyds is now named as JPMorgan's top pick among UK banks, as it upgraded its target price for the stock from 84p to 95p, implying 17% upside to current prices.The stock fell on Thursday despite the company saying that it swung to a statutory profit before tax of £415m during 2013, from a loss of £606m the year before. This was the group's first statutory profit in three years.JPMorgan said the market's negative reaction to the results "reflects a rebasing of expectations around legacy costs, net asset value (NAV) growth and capital return".However, these expectations "have now adjusted low enough to offer scope for positive surprise over the medium term, in our view", the broker said.As for Lloyds' tangible NAV, this has declined 17% from 58.6p in 2011 to 48.5p in 2013 due to legacy issues and restructuring. However, JPMorgan believes that it will "inflect" in 2014, rising to 54p.The stock was more or less flat at 81.3p by 09:45 on Friday, following a near-3% slump the day before.BC