"The outlook change reflects the accelerated and more specific plan to separate GKN into the aerospace and driveline businesses, which would likely result in a weaker credit profile," said Matthias Heck, the Moody's lead analyst for GKN. "The rating is already weakly positioned, and a weakening of its business profile through a spin off or disposal of a significant part of the business would require corresponding capital structure to retain an investment grade rating, which we believe will be challenging to achieve."
GKN has proposed the demerger as it fends off a hostile takeover bid by Melrose Industries PLC.
GKN said it plans to separate its aerospace and driveline businesses, dividing into two listed companies by mid-2019. Moody's noted the demerger could happen earlier, as GNK has confirmed it is in negotiations with US-based auto supplier Dana Inc, which has a Ba3 rating with stable outlook, regarding a potential all-share combination with GKN Driveline.
Moody's said that the negative outlook reflects the risk that GKN might be unable to keep credit metrics and financial policy in line with an investment grade rating, given a weakened business profile following a split of the company.
Moody's also said that an upgrade is currently unlikely, but it would consider raising GKN's rating to Baa2 if it is able to improve its credit strength.
GKN shares closed down 2.1% at
