BP Share News (BP.)

Two of the UK's big oil companies are set to release quarterly figures on Tuesday: BG Group and BP.Shares in BG shot up at the end of June after the company doubled its estimates for the Brazilian Santos Basin reserves and resources, but the shares have drifted lower for most of July. "In Q1 [the first quarter], BG Group disappointed with a 5% decline in production volume and it downgraded expectations for the year to only modest growth. Given that the BG Group share rating is relatively high within the sector this disappointment led to quite poor share price under-performance for most of Q2," notes broker Charles Stanley. "Therefore, the first benchmark around the Q2 results will be level of current output and potential for the second half. Q2 production may increase by about 2% which would be an improvement on the first quarter but still a disappointing outcome for such a growth stock," Charles Stanley's Tony Shepard reckons.Charles Stanley is forecasting second-quarter net income of $1.08bn, up from $899m the year before. It is tipping that the dividend will be raised to 10.5 cents from 9.82 cents in the second quarter of 2010.A billion dollars in net income is not to be sneezed at but, not surprisingly, it will be dwarfed by BP's post-tax profits, which Charles Stanley thinks will come in at $6bn, up from $5bn the year before. The disgraced oil company has recently started paying dividends again now the furore over the Gulf of Mexico tragedy has tailed off, and Charles Stanley thinks the second quarter pay-out will be 7 cents."Upstream profit for the quarter is estimated at about $8bn (Q1; $7.7bn). Again, in the quarter, turnaround and maintenance activity has been high and there is the continuing impact from the Gulf of Mexico drilling moratorium. Along with these factors, divestments will also reduce Q2 output, possibly below that of Q1. Production volumes are expected to be some 11% lower than last year. Maintenance work has been carried out in very profitable areas such as Angola and in addition cost pressures may impact Q2 margins," the broker forecasts. "The half-year results will give the management team the first opportunity since February to give a better insight about the strategic outlook," Tony Shepard observes. "Expansion plans with Rosneft have been blocked by BP's partners in TNK-BP but BP has been successful in other areas. BP has acquired a 30% stake in 23 offshore blocks in India together with Reliance and it has secured new access in Australia, Brazil, China and Indonesia. In terms of the Gulf of Mexico tragedy, BP has provided about $42m and its view it that it was not grossly negligent. In Q2, Mtsui Oil, a 10% partner in the Macondo field settled and agreed to pay $1.1bn to BP. This may have strengthened BP's case but a legal ruling on negligence is unlikely until 2012, at the earliest," Shepard added.Pharmaceuticals colossus GlaxoSmithKline is another stock market heavyweight that will be vying for the attention of traders and investment analysts, but, cunningly, it has scheduled its results announcement for midday, so that the US markets can tune in as well.Jeremy Batstone-Carr, head of equity research at Charles Stanley, reckons revenue will take a dip to £6.75bn from £7.03bn a year earlier, largely as a function of lower pharmaceutical product sales and vaccines."This should be offset in part by continued strength in Consumer Health. Excluding the impact of pandemic, flu preparations, coupled with Valtrex (off-patent) and Avandia sales may post a small single-digit advance. Excluding the legal charges, referred to above, we expect GlaxoSmithkline to deliver a 10% decline in operating profit with operating margin emerging below 30% (a decline in excess of 200bps) [i.e. two percentage points]," Batstone-Carr said. "We look for underlying EPS [earnings per share] to fall to 25.2p (29.3p) in part a reflection of adverse FX [foreign exchange] movements. Key highlights within these results are likely to be sales trends at key respiratory drug Advair (we look for a c.4% sales decline as US generics impact) and Benlysta which has recently been launched in the US. Emerging market sales may be impacted by product price cuts in Turkey and Russia. In terms of the pipeline, interest centres on Advair follow-up Relovair although the product may face regulatory hurdles in the US," Batstone-Carr added.Computer chip designer ARM is a long way off being as big as the aforementioned oil companies, but it is growing at a fast lick. In Matrix's view, however, the projected growth in earnings is not likely to be chunky enough to justify the stock's heady rating. "We feel the markets overestimate price points of smart phones and internet tablets and the relevant semiconductor content driving the royalty revenue stream," the broker explained.Matrix thinks ARM's revenues will be about £106.7m, the adjusted operating profit around £41.7m and the earnings per share will be 2.38p. "Our estimates are slightly below consensus expectations [for earnings per share] (2.43p). We see clean operating expenditure of £59m, in line with consensus," the broker added.Continuing with its bearish theme - the broker has a reduce rating on the shares with a 505p target price - Matrix thinks third-quarter guidance could be muted "on wireless weakness," plus the fall-out from the supply chain disruptions caused by the earthquake in Japan. "Q3 royalty revenues, booked one quarter in arrears, could show some weakness. Consensus expects 8% sequential growth in royalty revenues in Q3. The list of wireless companies who have warned on or missed Q2 estimates is long: Nokia, TXN, RIMM, ST-Ericsson, Sony Ericsson, LG," Matrix notes. Imperial Leather soap maker PZ Cussons should benefit from an improvement in trading conditions in Nigeria. "Following the elections in Nigeria, the country appears to have returned to good growth, Indonesia should be performing strongly after the baby care relaunch last year and, in the UK, the PZ Cussons Beauty division should remain a key driver of growth," Panmure Gordon reckons. "Input costs remain an issue and the intense promotional environment in developed markets shows little sign of abating," the broker added. Market consensus is for profit before tax of £108m on sales of £804.8m. Earnings per share are tipped to be 15.55p, while the full-year dividend is seen rising to 6.40p from 5.90p last year. Panmure Gordon is a little behind the market with its profit forecast of £107.8m but on the money with an earnings forecast of 15.6p per share. It thinks the company will generously up the full-year pay-out to 6.5p.Business publisher Informa's interim figures should be a solid stepping stone on the way to hitting full-year forecasts, but "given the uncertaineconomic outlook, and continued softness in the US in particular, it is probably too early to expect upgrades for the full year," Nomura Securities believes. INTERIMSARM Holdings, BG Group, BP, Communisis, GlaxoSmithKline, Informa, Norsk Hydro ASAINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSSmall Business Confidence (JPN)GfK Consumer Confidence (GER) (07:00)Consumer Confidence Indicator (FRA) (07:45)Consumer Confidence (US) (15:00)New Homes Sales (US) (15:00)Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (US) (15:00)UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSGross Domestic Product Q2 (09:30)Q2ARM Holdings, BG Group, BP, GlaxoSmithKline, Norsk Hydro ASAQ4Aquarius Platinum Ltd.GMSPunch TavernsFINALSAdEPT Telecom, Ashley House, eXpansys, ITM Power, PZ Cussons, Sceptre LeisureANNUAL REPORTCSS StellarIMSSImperial Tobacco GroupAGMSAberdeen All Asia Inv Trust, CSS Stellar, Endace Ltd., Helical Bar, iPoint-Media, Nautilus Minerals Inc. (DI), New Century AIM VCT, Porta Communications , Scapa Group, TR Property Inv Trust, TR Property Inv Trust Sigma Shares, Viridas, Vodafone GroupFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECupid, Vertu Motors, ViCTory VCT