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* November output up 17 pct to 2.109 mln bpd
* Poor outlook for refiners expected to dampen demand
* Potential strike at Grangemouth could impact Forties
By Claire Milhench
LONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - North Sea oil output tracked byReuters will rise by 17 percent in November from October to a2013 high, potentially putting downward pressure on prices.
Although most European refineries are scheduled to emergefrom seasonal maintenance by November, poor margins mayencourage some to remain idle or resort to run cuts, marketparticipants said.
"Run cuts and maintenance are happening all over Europe andAsia along with refinery glitches in the United States," atrader said.
But others pointed to uncertainties around a dispute atGrangemouth refinery in Scotland, where a strikecould ultimately impact flows through the Forties pipeline.
"It's very binary right now," one trader said. "If all goesaccording to plan it will be higher, but Grangemouth would be ahuge shock if it materialised."
Output from 11 of the main British and Norwegian crudestreams will average 2.109 million barrels per day (bpd) inNovember, according to loading schedules and trading sources, upfrom 1.802 million in October.
This level exceeds February's 2.082 million barrels, theprevious 2013 high, and reflects the fact that several Norwegianfields are expected to pump more as they return from seasonalmaintenance.
Brent itself is expected to load 140,000 bpd, up from 97,000bpd in October as maintenance on Taqa's NorthCormorant platform is likely to be complete. The plannedmaintenance was expected to interrupt production from theCauseway and Cormorant East oil fields for about six weeks fromearly September.
Together, the four North Sea crude streams that underpin theBrent benchmark will pump 980,000 bpd next month, including twodelayed Ekofisk cargoes from October.
Norwegian and Danish streams such as DUC, Gullfaks,Statfjord, Troll and Asgard will also load more. The loadingprogramme for Flotta, the smallest stream tracked by Reuters,has not yet emerged.
Given the poor outlook for the refining sector in Europe,traders said the extra volumes could put downward pressure ondifferentials and Brent crude oil futures.
"It's plenty as refineries are extending maintenance wherethey can due to awful margins," one trader said.
Even though European refineries are in the midst of autumnmaintenance and margins should be relatively healthy, aRotterdam-based refiner cracking Brent is currently only makingabout $1 a barrel, according to Reuters' data.
This is down from $6.64 a barrel in June, and reflects heavycompetition from U.S. refiners who have stepped up exports toEurope and West Africa, eroding European refiners' market share.
On the flip side, another trader cautioned that"historically the North Sea has tended to overpromise andunderdeliver".
A flow restriction on the Forties pipeline that has limitedoutput since August could pale into insignificance if workers atGrangemouth do decide to down tools.
BP's Kinneil terminal, which processes Forties fromthe pipeline, relies on steam and power from Grangemouth for itstrains. A strike at Grangemouth in 2008 shut down the pipelineentirely.
