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European banks poised for job cuts in 2016 profit drive

Mon, 21st Dec 2015 15:06

* Europe's 10 biggest banks announced 130,000 job cuts sinceJune

* Investors expect lenders to cut further, faster

* Retail, investment banking likely to be hit hardest

* Technology changes mean many jobs gone for good

By Anjuli Davies, Sinead Cruise and Steve Slater

LONDON, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Regulation, anaemic economicgrowth and technology changes will force banks across Europe tofind more savings in 2016, with jobs likely to be the biggestcasualty, according to investors and analysts.

Ten of the region's biggest banks have announced staff cutsof 130,000 since June, according to data compiled by Reuters more than the total number of job losses announced by thosebanks in 2013 and 2014. But investors believe the industry willneed to slim down further and faster to boost profits.

"The perpetrators of 2008 still need to pay a penance andmust shrink balance sheets in so doing," said Jamie Clark,co-manager on the Liontrust Macro Thematic team, referring tothe banking crisis that triggered a deep global recession fromwhich several of the world's largest economies are stillrecovering.

"We read job cuts as only one sign of the secular, ratherthan cyclical trend to permanently smaller banks."

Tens of thousands of staff were axed during and after the2007/09 financial crisis but the fresh wave of cuts in Europeshows how the region's banks are trailing their U.S.counterparts in bringing in structural overhauls.

In 2014 and 2013 a combined 78,000 job cuts were announcedat eighteen of Europe's largest banks, which represented 4.1percent of staff, was far less than cuts of 7.3 percent inheadcount across six major U.S. banks.

An IMF study last year of 300 large global banks showed thatonly about 30 percent of euro zone lenders had a structure thatwas able to make a reasonable rate of return over time, comparedwith 80 percent of those in the U.S.

"U.S. banks have mainly done what's needed to be done andare on an upward curve" said Chris Wheeler, bank analyst atAtlantic Equities.

"Then you have the 'Road to Damascus banks'. They've finallyrealized that the market won't bail them out and they have tomake some fundamental changes - Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse,Barclays. It's going to be a year of major change that, in mostcases, won't be completed for a number of years."

Dutch lender Rabobank became the latest to wield the axe,announcing this month that it would cut 9,000 jobs, joiningDeutsche Bank, UniCredit, Credit Suisse, HSBC and StandardChartered in announcing workforce culls in the second half of2015.

BANKING JOBS 'BEAR MARKET'

While some cuts will come from selling off businesses, newtechnology is also contributing as banks close branches andshift to systems requiring less manpower.

"We're in a long term bear market for banking jobs as we'refinally seeing technology and automation taking out jobs inretail banking," Xavier VanHove, partner at fund manager THSPartners told Reuters.

A lagging European economy is also adding to banks' woes.While the U.S. Federal Reserve has begun raising interest ratesits counterpart in Europe is contemplating further monetaryeasing, which could eat into banks' interest margins.

Many European banks are soul searching in particular aboutwhat the future shape of their investment banks will be, withtheir trading divisions under the spotlight as greater capitalrequirements and technological automation squeeze margins.

European banks who make quick cuts to their headcount andbusiness lines could pull their returns closer to their U.S.peers by 2017, Morgan Stanley analysts estimate, narrowing a gapof between 3 to 4 percent percentage points.

"European return on leverage exposure is roughly half thatof U.S. firms. Pruning underperforming units, intensecost-cutting and revitalising high return-on-equity (RoE) areawill be key," the analysts said in a recent note.

A new CEO at Barclays is expected to axe more jobs, and hasalready started cutting in the investment bank, mostly in Asia,sources have said.

"The crux of cuts in investment banking fall in FICC (fixedincome, commodities and currencies), where things are reallydifficult....It's more structural than short term," saidStephane Rambosson, managing director at executive search firm,DHR International.

"It's like in the 80s. There were a million miners whoconverted into different jobs. I am sure in this industry, theywill do that as well."

BNP Paribas, France's biggest listed lender may makesignificant middle and back office job cuts in 2016 as part of aplan to cut costs by 20 percent in its investment bank thatincludes using "big data" technology to identify customer needs,Reuters reported in October.

That may seem small compared to cuts in coming years.

Former Barclays CEO Antony Jenkins has said banks could cutup to half their jobs in the next decade due to the impact oftechnological and regulatory change, with the people overseeingbanks' systems likely to replace investment bankers as theirmost influential decision makers.

"The next CEO for banks is the chief information officer orthe chief technology officer. They're the new king or queen,"said Bill Michael, global head of banking at KPMG.

(Editing by Anna Willard)

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