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* Barclays calls time on a century in Africa
* Tumbling currencies hit sterling performance
* Turbulent African outlook affects sale prospects
* No clear buyers for regional group, analysts say
By Ed Cropley
JOHANNESBURG, March 1 (Reuters) - When Barclays bought SouthAfrica's Absa in 2005, wading back into a market it quit in the1980s under pressure from anti-apartheid campaigners, the dealwas trumpeted as a "tangible vote of confidence" in Africa'sfuture.
Eleven years on, as the British banking giant looks to endmore than a century of involvement on the continent by puttingthe 'For Sale' sign above its Africa business, it is hard not toconclude the opposite.
Barclays said it was selling down its 62.3 percent, 70billion rand ($4.5 billion) stake in its Johannesburg-basedsubsidiary - which runs Absa in South Africa andBarclays-branded operations in 13 other countries - because ofBritish regulations.
Barclays Africa chief executive Maria Ramos also said thedecision had nothing to do with the outlook for Africa, pointingto a 10 percent rise in annual profit and 17 percent return onequity to support her view.
But these numbers are in local currency terms.
When translated into pounds - the only currency that mattersto Barclays bosses in London - they tell a very different story,in particular the return on equity, which falls to 8.7 percent,below the parent bank's 11 percent target.
Over the last year, South Africa's rand has shed 20percent against the pound as mining exports have slumped, theeconomy has stagnated and President Jacob Zuma has rattledinvestors by firing two finance ministers in four days.
Over the decade since Barclays bought Absa, the decline isfar larger, to the point that - despite a 70 percent share pricerise - Barclays is likely to take home the same amount of moneyit spent in the first place.
SHORTAGE OF SUITORS
Furthermore, this assumes Barclays will be able to sell atTuesday's share price of around 142 rand - an unlikely prospectgiven the absence of obvious suitors and the clouds looming overAfrica's famously large horizons.
In its latest economic outlook, the IMF forecast sub-Saharangrowth of 3.75 percent for this year, a sharp decline frompre-financial crisis levels and a prediction that gives thehandful of potential Barclays Africa suitors a strong hand inany talks.
Analysts and mergers and acquisitions bankers say interestis possible from China - now Africa's largest trading partner -although the performance of the 20 percent in South Africa'sStandard Bank bought by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China601398.SS 1398.HK in 2008 has been underwhelming.
National Bank of Abu Dhabi and Qatar NationalBank are also possible bidders for the wholeportfolio, although Qatar's strained diplomatic relations withCairo might complicate any deal due to its Egypt component,Middle East banking sources said.
Speculation is also bound to swirl around Africa-focusedbank Atlas Mara, co-founded by former Barclays boss BobDiamond, although it is hard to see Atlas, valued at just $320million, raising sufficient quantities of cash.
Another option for Diamond's outfit is to team up withsovereign wealth funds or other financial investors and launch ajoint bid as part of a consortium, one of the bankers suggested.
If these do not materialise, alternative outcomes forBarclays are breaking up the unit to sell off piecemeal, orkeeping its hands on a minority stake. Barclays said on Tuesdayit may keep a small non-controlling stake in Barclays Africabeyond the 2-3 year sale deadline.
ELUSIVE MIDDLE CLASS
The continent's prospects are nothing like as rosy as 2005,when Irish rocker Bob Geldof arm-twisted rich nations intowriting off billions of dollars in defaulted African sovereigndebt.
Freed from the burden of unpayable interest charges andboosted by a commodity price boom, the impact of technology suchas mobile phones and a flood of 'Africa Rising' investmentpredicated on the emergence of a middle class, the continentembarked on a decade of unprecedented growth.
Last year's slowdown in China and the ensuing drop in demandfor raw materials such as iron ore, copper and crude, hasbrought that to a juddering halt, exposing the fragility ofAfrican government finances and economies.
The case of Nigeria, its biggest economy, most populousnation and top crude producer, is telling.
Having relied on oil for 70 percent of its revenues and 90percent of its dollars, Abuja has had to impose budget cuts andforeign exchange controls to protect the naira, which is nowtrading on the street at nearly half its official value.
Other commodity producers such as Ghana, Zambia and Angolahave suffered similar fates.
Meanwhile, the hoped-for windfall has failed to materialisefrom a continental middle-class whose size varies from 327million of Africa's billion plus population to just 16 milliondepending on whose daily income definition you accept - theAfrican Development Bank's $2, or McKinsey's $55.
"It's become clear that most of the people portrayed as thenew consumer class are not going to have jobs - and if you'renot earning, you're not consuming and you're not borrowing,"said Francois Conradie of NKC Africa Economists in Cape Town.
"Instead of having a big middle class, you're just going tohave big slums - and that is a serious political problem." ($1 = 15.6701 rand) (Additional reporting by Pamela Barbaglia and David French;editing by Philippa Fletcher)
