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Mine strike hits the micro and macro in S.African economy

Thu, 20th Mar 2014 11:23

* Strike already hurting growth, current account

* Losses will mount after strike ends until mines hit fullproduction

* Impact has hit mining communities hard

* Platinum prices have been little changed by the strike

By Ed Stoddard

RUSTENBURG, South Africa, March 20 (Reuters) - As SouthAfrica's biggest post-apartheid mine strike marks its eighthweek on Thursday, it is already denting growth and exportearnings, and many of those affected are having to sell theirmost prized possessions to make ends meet.

In an informal bar near the platinum belt city ofRustenburg, striking miner Oupa Majodina holds up his cell phoneto show a photo of his pride and joy: his cattle.

"I own 11, but I will have to sell some of them. What can Ido? I need the cash," he said glumly as he nursed a beer.

No talks are scheduled between the two sides to the strike,the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) andthe world's top platinum producers, Anglo American Platinum, Impala Platinum and Lonmin, and theyremain poles apart on the issue of wages.

That means the misery will only spread, making an evenbigger headache for President Jacob Zuma and the ruling AfricanNational Congress on the run-in to May 7 general elections.

The strike has hit about 40 percent of global production ofthe precious metal, which is used for catalytic converters invehicles and is a key source of hard currency for South Africa.

The companies have lost revenues of 9.2 billion rand ($850million) and counting, according to an industry website thatupdates the losses like a Doomsday clock. ( http://www.platinumwagenegotiations.co.za/latest-news/2014 )

"You will need to take that 9 billion rand out of thecurrent account because it is almost all from exports," saidMike Schussler, who runs economics consultancy economists.co.za.

This current account deficit is already a key weakness inSouth Africa's economy, putting its rand currency underpressure. It grew in 2013 to 5.8 percent of gross domesticproduct, its widest since 2008.

A wave of violent, wildcat strikes that erupted periodicallyin 2012, rooted in a turf war between AMCU and the NationalUnion of Mineworkers, cost platinum and gold producers over 16billion rand that year, when the current account gap was 5.2percent of GDP.

With no resolution in sight, the cost of the present strikemay exceed that, and the losses will continue to mount after itis over, as operations will take a long time to get back to fullproduction. Job losses and shaft closures look highly likely.

TERRIBLE TIMING

For the current account, the losses will be magnified asSouth Africa's government embarks on a spending binge for bigticket items such as over 1,000 trains that will be importedfrom foreign companies like General Electric.

"There will be huge pressure on the current account from thegovernment's infrastructure programme. So this strike couldhardly come at a worse time," said Schussler.

The impact on growth will also be significant. Africa'slargest economy is seen expanding at a sluggish pace of onlyaround 2.5 percent per year, according to the latest Reuterspoll of economists.

"Roughly speaking, if you look at our GDP, which is 3.6trillion rand, then that 9 billion rand is about a quarter of apercent off economic growth already," said Schussler.

Perhaps half a percent had been lost already, he added, ifthe 4 billion rand in lost employee wages and the effect oncompanies that supply and service the mines are added.

"This means growth of 2 percent or lower," Schussler said.

Even operations not on strike, such as Aquarius Platinum's, have not been able to capitalise on their rivals'misfortunes as the strike has not had much impact on price.

Spot platinum prices are little changed since thestrikes began on Jan. 23 as traders bet that the availability ofabove-ground stocks will cushion end-users from the impact.

CATTLE AND CARAVANS

The lost wages have been felt immediately in the communitiesalong the platinum belt northwest of Johannesburg.

Patrick Tlou, 48, the owner of the Phomolong Tavern, whereMajodina and a few other men were sitting in a circle on plasticchairs drinking beer, said his trade was suffering.

"Business is very down. It's because of the strike. Many ofmy customers have gone home," he said.

Home for most miners is the villages they hail from inplaces such as Eastern Cape province, hundreds of miles away.

This is where Majodina keeps his cattle. After sending moneyhome for years to his family, he will now have to draw on hiscows and kin to see him through the strike.

"On April 1, I will go to the local Shoprite store and get300 rand that my mother will send me out of her pension cheque.But normally I send money home," he said.

As for his cattle, it's a buyer's market as desperation setsin among miners, many of whom own livestock back in their ruralhomesteads.

"If I say I want 6,000 rand for this animal, someone willsay I only have 4,000 rand, and I will have to take it."

Elsewhere in Rustenburg, Ig Bronkhorst, owner of Campworld,which sells caravans and camping gear, said his business wasalso badly affected, though his typical client would be in ahigher income bracket than the striking AMCU members, who are atthe bottom of the mine wage scale.

"My business is down at least 30 percent since the strikestarted. It goes wider than the guys working on the mine. It isalso the contractors and the suppliers for the mines, and manyof them are my customers," he said.

"People are bringing back caravans to sell because they needmoney," he said. ($1 = 10.7320 South African Rand) (Additional reporting by Jan Harvey in London; Editing by WillWaterman)

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