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Broker tips: Direct Line, Dunelm, Aggreko

Mon, 11th Apr 2016 11:45

(ShareCast News) - Barclays downgraded Direct Line Insurance to 'equalweight' from 'overweight' and cut the price target to 369p from 443p as it took a look at UK motor insurers.The bank noted Direct Line has been one of the best performing insurance stocks since its IPO in 2012, more than doubling from its 170p IPO price and returning two-thirds of the price as dividends."However, we believe the stock is now fairly valued as we lower our estimates for the loss of its Nationwide and Sainsbury's contracts."The bank said it expects more special dividend from Solvency 2 in 2016, but thereafter, it estimates dividends will be around 80% payout of earnings, offering a yield of approximately 6%."Although we believe Direct Line will benefit from the pricing cycle, we believe Direct Line is most at risk from reduced reserve releases."Overall, Barclays said it was positive on the UK motor market, as it reckons this is the first major property and casualty market to inflect and harden."We believe DLG as the largest player in the market is poised to benefit," it said. Canaccord Genuity kept Dunelm at a 'hold' rating but raised its target price to 950p from 910p, saying it has "long traded at a significant premium to the wider sector".The home furnishing retailer on 7 April reported third quarter revenue growth of 5.9%. Total like-for-like (LFL) growth, combining LFL stores and home delivery, increased by 1.1%.The company pointed out that, due to the 53rd week included in its last financial year, the period included six days fewer winter sale days year-on-year, reducing like-for-like growth by 4.9% or £1m in the third quarter, though that was partially offset by the earlier Easter contributing 1% towards performance.Adjusting for the calendar impacts, underlying like-for-like performance was "a very pleasing" 5% for the 13 weeks to 2 April, the broker said."The 28% increase in Home Delivery remains an important contributor to total LFL sales growth, but our estimate of underlying 3% Store only LFL sales growth shows that the focus on this specific area, re-initiated by (founder) Will Adderley, continues to bear fruit," said Canaccord analyst David Jeary."The 90 basis points (bps) gross margin improvement in the third quarter was also stronger than we had expected, even though our full-year assumption of a 50bps gross margin improvement is in line with the guidance given by management in the Q3 update."Canaccord raised its full year 2016 forecasts by £1.5m (+1.2%) to £128.5m. Jeary said the change to profit estimates broadly reflects a £4m increase in the sales forecast."Given its characteristics as an organic growth stock, along with relentlessly strong cash generation and special distributions, Dunelm has long traded at a significant premium to the wider sector," he said."This premium has been as high as 40% over extended periods, but in recent times has more typically been trading around a +/- 20% premium. On the basis of the delivered LFL performance in Q3 and our small upgrades, we have increased the premium we apply to the wider sector from 15% to 25%. This drives a new target price of 950p (from 910p)."Canaccord retained its hold rating due to the sector de-rating over the past quarter. Temporary power provider Aggreko was under the cosh after UBS downgraded the stock to 'sell' from 'neutral' and slashed the price target to 800p from 1,050p."Weak markets have undoubtedly been a headwind for Aggreko for the past 3 years, but we now believe that Aggreko's problems are structural too," the bank said.As the power rental market has matured, Aggreko's competitive advantage has been eroded, UBS said.As a result, it expects pricing to come under increasing pressure, eating through cost savings and further compressing return on invested capital."A new product line is likely necessary to reinvent Aggreko, but we wouldn't expect to see a material benefit until 2020+m," it said, adding that it expects to see continued earnings risk and for the valuation to remain constrained.UBS said Aggreko urgently needs to launch a new product before it can hope to rebuild a unique competitive advantage and hit targets for return on capital employed.
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8 Mar 2021 11:39

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8 Mar 2021 09:41

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5 Mar 2021 13:07

Friday broker round-up

(Sharecast News) - Aggreko: Peel Hunt upgrades to hold with a target price of 880p.

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5 Mar 2021 08:53

LONDON MARKET OPEN: Stocks drop as rate hike fears grow; LSEG falls

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5 Mar 2021 08:31

TOP NEWS: Aggreko accepts GBP2.3 billion private equity takeover offer

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5 Mar 2021 07:03

Aggreko agrees £2.3bn sale to private equity groups

(Sharecast News) - Aggreko has agreed to be bought by two private equity firms in a cash deal valuing the FTSE 250 company at £2.3bn.

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1 Mar 2021 08:54

Aggreko swings to loss but encouraged by positive momentum in new year

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1 Mar 2021 08:12

LONDON BRIEFING: Booming PPE Supply Helps Bunzl Keep Dividend Growing

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1 Mar 2021 07:07

Aggreko unveils final dividend as markets recover

(Sharecast News) - Aggreko announced a final dividend as the power generator supplier said its markets were recovering after reporting an annual loss.

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22 Feb 2021 16:09

UK Earnings, Trading Statements Calendar - Next 7 Days

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11 Feb 2021 09:36

BROKER RATINGS: Investec Cuts NatWest To Sell; UBS Raises Aggreko

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9 Feb 2021 09:31

BROKER RATINGS: HSBC And ASOS Raised, DS Smith And Spire Cut

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5 Feb 2021 17:04

LONDON MARKET CLOSE: Sterling Strength Continues To Hold Back FTSE 100

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5 Feb 2021 15:11

Aggreko Shares Soar On Takeover Talks With TDR Capital And I Squared

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5 Feb 2021 14:47

Aggreko in takeover talks with TDR Capital, I Squared Capital

(Sharecast News) - Aggreko shares surged on Friday after the temporary power provider said it was in talks with TDR Capital and I Squared Capital about a possible cash offer at 880p a share.

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