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(Repeats story from Friday)
LONDON, Sept 6 (Reuters) -1/GO BIG, ECB, OR GO HOMEBond markets have become accustomed to getting their own way. Soon Thursday when the ECB holds one of its most anticipatedmeetings ever, they will be watching for Mario Draghi, in one ofhis final acts as ECB chief, to unleash more stimulus to boostthe bloc's stubbornly weak economy and inflation.
On the table are interest rate cuts, a resumption of assetpurchases, a pledge to keep rates low for longer andcompensation for banks suffering from negative rates. Moneymarkets are positioned for sizeable rate cuts between now andend-2020.
The risk is the package falls short - if markets see it as adamp squib rather than the necessary bazooka. Already yieldshave jumped off record lows after some ECB officials dampenedexpectations of an aggressive easing package and played down theneed to resume bond-buying.
But others argue that if the bank is serious about boostinginflation, below target since 2013, it needs to deliver more notless. Failure to do so could trigger a huge bond tantrum, onethat makes the recent selloff look like a blip.-ECB package could include rate cut, tiering, new guidance:sources-Deutsche, Commerzbank CEOs warn of ECB rate cut side effects-Prolonged easy ECB policy necessary to fight challenges:Lagarde2/A BAT IN EUROPESome good news for investors starved of a high-growth Europeaninternet stock -- on Wednesday South African e-commerce giantNaspers will float its newly created subsidiary, Prosus, inAmsterdam, an entity valued at over 100 billion euros.
Currently, no European-listed company is able compete withthe meteoric earnings growth of the U.S. and Asian tech giantsgrouped under the FAANG and BAT acronyms. But Prosus' main assetis a 30% stake in Tencent, one of China's biggest social mediaand gaming groups. Tencent is also the T in the BATs cohort (theother two are Baidu and Alibaba). So Prosus could in theoryemerge as a Europe-based proxy for Tencent.
But could it also be the P in a yet-to-be-created acronymfor a European tech grouping? Prosus will be tiny compared withthe FAANGs, which are worth a collective $2.8 trillion. But itwould still be Europe's second-largest tech firm after Germany'sSAP. Its listing will offer a boost to the pan-European techstocks index, which is currently worth about 430 billion euros($475 billion).-Tencent shareholder Naspers plots Euronext e-commerce listing
3/ET TU BROTHER?It's been a dreadful few days for British Prime Minister BorisJohnson. He has vowed to die in a ditch rather than delay Brexitbut now a three-month postponement looks increasingly likely.His attempt to get Brexit done by Oct. 31 by suspending - orproroguing - parliament for a period has effectively been foiledby furious lawmakers and his brother Jo has quit the governmentover its approach towards policy.
On Monday, parliament returns in force to block Johnson'ssecond bid to call a mid-October general election.
Then there's the economy teetering on the edge of recession.The Bank of England sees a one-in-three chance the economy willbe shrinking in year-on-year terms by early-2020. All otherindicators, from car sales to business investment, have slumpedto multi-year lows. So alongside Brexit developments, marketswill be eyeing upcoming data -- Q2 growth data are published onMonday, along with figures on industrial output, constructionand trade. Tuesday brings employment figures. Any sign of afloor under sterling and the economy will be welcome news forJohnson.
-Opposition to block British PM Johnson's snap election gamble- British PM Johnson's own brother quits on eve of Brexitelection campaign- UK PM Johnson's suspension of parliament is an abuse of power,court hears
4/PBOC CHOP?China has just slashed banks' reserve ratios, meaning lenderswill need to keep less cash in hand. That frees up around 900billion yuan to shore up the economy. The move was anticipatedand now the question is: do authorities think more policy easingis needed and when could more measures be deployed?
The upcoming data dump from Beijing could provide a clue. Itwill show how the trade war is hitting the world's No. 2 economyand market expectations are not pretty. Export growth is seenslowing, imports falling and factory-gate prices dropping for asecond month running as manufacturers cut prices - and their ownmargins - to offset tariffs increases and faltering domesticdemand. We also get an update on credit which could recoverafter last month's contraction in new loans and socialfinancing.
A truly dire set of data could see the central bank open themonetary policy sluice gates, possibly even before the U.S. Fedgets in another rate cut.
Bulls see Beijing unleashing a ride-to-the-rescueinfrastructure boom. Bears only see battle lines hardening andan already-here slowdown that shudders through the globaleconomy for years.
-China cuts banks' reserve ratios, frees up $126 bln for loansas economy slows-POLL-China Aug exports seen up slightly, imports to contractfor 4th month-EXPLAINER-U.S., China more divided than ever as new trade talksloom
5/RETAIL RELIEFSept. 1 saw U.S. tariff increases kick in on $112 billion worthof Chinese goods imports, bringing the tax up to 15%. Beijinghas slapped on retaliatory levies, taking the trade war upanother notch. News the two sides are to resume talks in Octoberhas soothed some fears but the tariffs will raise the pricesAmericans pay for some clothes, shoes, mobile phones and otherconsumer goods -- just before the holiday shopping season. Givenconsumer spending is the U.S. economy's main driver, that's aworry.
In the face of slowing exports and investment, shoppersremain a bright spot. U.S. consumer retail sales increased 0.7%in July, surpassing the 0.3% pickup analysts had forecast. Sothe August figures - due Friday -- will be of interest.Forecasts are for a 0.4% increase. But year-over-year growth ispredicted at 3.2%, slowing from 3.4% in July.
Ominously, U.S. retailers have been warning investors not toexpect too much when they post results in upcoming quarters. Todate, 33 companies have issued profit warnings for the third2019 quarter, while only 15 have delivered positive messages.
Accordingly, analysts polled by Refinitiv have steadilylowered earnings estimates. For the S&P 500, Q3 profits areforecast to decline by 2%; before President Donald Trump'stariff escalation in early-August, a 0.6% drop had beenexpected.-Fed's rate-cut debate focuses on 'robust' U.S. consumer-Retailers in spotlight as tariffs on consumer products kick in
(Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe, Josephine Mason and Sujata Raoin London, Jennifer Ablan in New York and Tom Westbrook inSingaporeCompiled by Sujata RaoEditing by Frances Kerry)