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Pin to quick picksAlibaba Group H Share News (0HCI)

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Share Price: 81.20
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LIVE MARKETS-Closing snapshot: Europe rides high

Thu, 05th Sep 2019 16:41

* European shares higher, STOXX up 0.7%

* China, U.S. to hold trade talks in October

* Safran, Dassault Aviation rally on results, CYBG tanks

* German industrial orders fall more than expected

* Wall Street higher on easing trade tensions Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Danilo Masoni. Reach him on Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: rm://danilo.masoni.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

CLOSING SNAPSHOT: EUROPE RIDES HIGH (1541 GMT)

European stocks have ended at Aug. 1 highs and are heading towards a third straight weekly gain amid fresh hopes around the U.S.-China trade spat and strong U.S. private sector job data.

The pan European STOXX 600 has closed up 0.7%, while the euro-zone benchmark is up 1%, led by trade-sensitive sectors. Cars and auto suppliers have rallied 3% for their best day since July 23, while tech stocks is up 2.5%.

(Josephine Mason)

*****

GIVE ME A P: IS EUROPE ABOUT TO GET ITS OWN TECH ACRONYM? (1327 GMT)

It's long been a lament among investors in Europe that the region is starved of a high-growth internet company that competes with the likes of Netflix, Facebook and China's Tencent that form the U.S. FAANGs and BATs in Asia and have ballooned over the past few years, helping fuel the decade-long bull run on Wall Street.

That might be about to change.

South Africa's e-commerce giant Naspers Ltd will float in Amsterdam on Wednesday its technology holding firm Prosus, with an estimated value of more than 100 billion euros.

The main asset in the newly created subsidiary is its 30% stake in Tencent, one of China's biggest social media and gaming groups and the T in the Asia acronym alongside Baidu and Alibaba. Prosus would so be a European-based proxy for investors seeking exposure to Tencent.

In 2001, Naspers paid $32 million for a stake in Chinese based Tencent. The investment dominates the group's revenue and profit growth.

The listing is critical for Napsers as it seeks to close a significant discount between its value and that of its stake in Tencent, which it has been under pressure for some time to bridge.

But it could be a (lonely) P in a as-yet-to-be-created acronym for a new grouping in Europe. It's tiny compared with the FAANGs, which are worth a whopping $2.8 trillion.

But its valuation would make it Europe's second-largest tech firm after Germany's SAP and will give a considerable boost to the STOXX 600 technology index, which is currently worth about 430 billion euro ($475 billion).

The chart below shows the valuation would rank it 2nd to Germany's SAP with a yawning gap between it and other constituents in the tech index.

Tencent's HK stock performance

U.S. FAANGs outperform Wall Street

(Josephine Mason)

*****

BAD NEWS IS GOOD NEWS - BUT FOR HOW LONG? (1123 GMT)

Economic data continue to depict a gloomy outlook, but stock markets are quick in absorbing the bad macro.

In Europe, the STOXX 600 has hit a fresh 1-month high while in the U.S. the S&P is 3% under its all-time high and futures are pointing to a strong start at Wall Street.

Anthilia Capital fund manager Giuseppe Sersale says while that looks bizarre at a first glance, investors should not jump to the conclusion that a strong correction is imminent.

He cites three reasons to believe so: any bad news on macro or trade could bolster bets of bolder policy easing by the Fed at its Sept. 17 meeting; market positioning is highly defensive; and the negative macro newsflow could lead Trump to ink a temporary truce with China.

"For these reasons I suspect Wall Street will show stronger-than-expected resilience in the coming days and in the absence of any particularly bad news it could... march towards new highs," writes Sersale.

Just yesterday BAML said they were bullish on the rest of the year, citing similar arguments, but bearish on next year.

Here are their main strategy takeaways:

* We are bullish on risk assets in 2019 as once again bearish positioning & bullish monetary policy have trumped the macro.

* We are bearish on risk assets in 2020 as recession/policy impotence/bond bubble risks induce Big Top in credit & equities

* We believe the most contrarian trade in the 2020s is "long inflation"

Later in the session eyes are on the U.S. ISM services survey and it will be interesting to see how the market reacts to any disappointment.

(Danilo Masoni)

*****

OPENING SNAPSHOT: STOXX UP 0.5%, SAFRAN HITS NEW RECORD, CYBG TANKS (0720 GMT)

Fresh optimism about China-U.S. trade talks is lifting European shares at the open with most indexes trading in the black and the STOXX 600 benchmark rising 0.5% to its highest since Aug. 1.

Trade-sensitive sectors tech and cars are leading the gains, up 1.4-1.5% and at their highest since Aug. 2.

Among top movers are shares in aerodefence companies Safran, up 8% to a new record high, and Dassault Aviation, up 9%, after both companies released upbeat earnings updates, while news of a $5 billion share buyback is sending Equinor up 5.8%.

UK bank CYBG has tanked 19% after saying it expected to increase its provision for legacy payment protection insurance by to 450 million pounds ($552 million).

Here's your opening snapshot: (Danilo Masoni)

*****

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING AT THE OPEN (0703 GMT)

European shares are set to extend yesterday's rally to fresh one-month highs with news that China and the U.S. agreed to hold high-level trade talks in early October lifting spirits and sending futures up 0.5-0.8%.

Economic data however continues to show a gloomy picture with German industrial orders falling more than expected in July just ahead of next week's ECB meeting where the central bank is expected to unveil a comprehensive stimulus package.

On the corporate front, some positive news could lift the aero-defence sector. France engine maker Safran raised its full-year profit forecasts, seen boosting its shares by as much as 7%, and Dassault Aviation, the maker of Rafale warplanes and Falcon business jets, stuck to its 2019 target of higher net sales. Its shares are expected to rise 2%.

Also underscoring the health of the sector is the promotion to the DAX 30 of aircraft engine maker MTU Aero Engines replacing industrial conglomerate ThyssenKrupp . MTU Aero Engine are up 2% in premarket.

In other earnings updates, CYBG is set to fall sharply after the British bank said it expected to increase its provision for legacy payment protection insurance. Its Australia-listed shares fell as much as 22.5% to a new record low.

Boohoo instead is seen rising 3-5% after the British online fashion retailer said it was trading ahead of expectations and raised its full-year revenue growth forecast.

A $5 bln share buyback is good news for investors in oil group Equinor, which also announced an earlier-than-planned start-up for the Johan Sverdrup oilfield, the largest North Sea discovery in more than three decades. Equinor shares are seen rising 2%.

Eyes also on UBS after the FT reported that Switzerland's biggest bank is planning to revamp its investment arm. Data from industry analyst Coalition show that the world's largest investment banks have had their worst start to a year since 2006 with revenues down 11%.

UK headlines:

Go-Ahead reports lower annual profit as rail unit falters

William Hill CEO Philip Bowcock to leave

Melrose sees continued weakness in global automotive sector in H2

British online retailer Boohoo raises full-year forecast

Mobile phone sales plunge at Britain's Dixons Carphone

Oil firm EnQuest chips away at debt, plans drilling

CYBG Says Expects To Increase Provisions For Legacy PPI Costs By Between £300 Mln And £450 Mln

Network International majority owners sell down part of stake

(Danilo Masoni)

*****

EUROPEAN FUTURES RISE, AERO-DEFENCE RESULTS IN FOCUS (0616 GMT)

Futures are pointing to healthy gains at the open this morning with gains of between 0.5%-0.7%, while turning to corporate news there are some good-looking updates in the aero-defence sector.

France engine maker Safran raised its full-year profit forecasts and Dassault Aviation, the maker of Rafale warplanes and Falcon business jets, stuck to its 2019 target of higher net sales.

Also underscoring the health of the sector is the promotion to the DAX index of aircraft engine maker MTU Aero Engines in replacement of industrial conglomerate ThyssenKrupp.

A $5 bln share buyback is good news for investors in oil group Equinor, which also announced an earlier-than- planned start-up for the Johan Sverdrup oilfield, the largest North Sea discovery in more than three decades.

In M&A news, German utility E.ON said it would seek to squeeze out minority shareholders in takeover target Innogy as soon as it secures European antitrust approval, while in the Netherlands, the consumer watchdog rejected a proposed merger between PostNL, the country's largest mail carrier, and its main rival Sandd.

In airlines, UK unions at Ryanair announced a further seven days of strikes.

Here's your full earnings headlines round-up:

Safran raises profit forecasts after strong H1

Dassault Aviation keeps 2019 targets as profits rise

Thyssenkrupp to leave Germany's blue chip index DAX; MTU Aero joins

Equinor plans early Sverdrup start-up, $5 bln share buyback

M&S, Direct Line and Micro Focus will be booted from FTSE 100 on Sept. 23

Big investment banks have worst start to year since 2006

UBS plans revamp of investment bank after falling profits - FT

Hellman & Friedman, Blackstone sell 6.2% stake in Scout24

Brazil judge orders Bayer to deposit $69 mln in soy patent dispute

Ryanair UK unionised pilots call seven more strike days

IAG names Fernando Candela as CEO of low cost airline Level

(Danilo Masoni)

*****

TRADE HOPES SEEN LIFTING EUROPEAN SHARES (0531 GMT)

It looks European stock markets are set for another risk-on day after China and the United States agreed to hold high-level trade talks in early October in Washington.

The announcement by China's commerce ministry -- which follows well-received geopolitical news in UK, Italy and Hong Kong yesterday -- boosted Asian shares overnight and the positive mood is seen spreading to Europe at the start of trading.

Financial spreadbetters at IG expect London's FTSE to open 26 points higher at 7,337, while Frankfurt's trade-sensitive DAX is seen rising 107 points to 12,132, and Paris' CAC to open 47 points higher at 5,579.

Later in the session the focus will turn to the U.S. ISM services survey.

"Any weakness in that series on the back of the sub-50 manufacturing print would be really bad news," writes Rabobank.

(Danilo Masoni)

***** ($1 = 0.8145 pounds) (Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Josephine Mason and Thyagaraju Adinarayan)

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