RE: Discount to NAV29 Apr 2024 08:27
DorsetLSE - I totally agree with you about chartists & so-called experts.
About a decade ago, I recall many experts saying the US markets were over-valued & due a major correction. At that time, I had a decent chunk of my pension pot in European equities, going nowhere fast. Despite the prevalent “expert” advice, I decided to move from a European to a US fund. And boy am I glad I did.
Many experts are again saying the US is over-valued today. And they could be right eventually. But in the long term, I fully expect them to be wrong again. Most non-US markets are heavily influenced by American sentiment anyway. So if the US falls, Europe & the UK are almost bound to follow suit.
Let’s hope if there is any US downturn, it’s fairly short-lived & shallow, as SMT has a heavy geographic concentration there. I suspect the Fed will still reduce interest rates later this year or early next, which should help.
As for SMT “going nowhere for too long”, I know what you mean as it has seemed rangebound for some time now. It almost feels like a case of one step forwards, two back. But if you look at the share chart, that’s not entirely fair. It has actually gone up 37% over the past 12 months, albeit from a low base.