RE: Price target?3 May 2024 17:17
You are right SB. They avoided consolidating their losses with debt through the recent fundraise. Which will go on if they go it alone. As you and I have both observed there are mixed messages about whether they want a sale or whether they intend to sell the product themselves. Not their core skills so that's why I think they want to sell. Being deliberately ambiguous. Bit obvious to those interested parties but not without merit as a bargaining chip for a small company positioning themselves to engaging with pharma giants.
I won't reference 'debt' again. I meant they're spending more than they're making. Lazy. Apologies.
I won't cry if they get £1.00. Neither will new bond holders? Unless some of them have previously invested, as you have, at much higher levels.
But realistically they should get £300 million. A big pharma with a high industry profile, manufacturing core skills or good outsourcing relationships will make a billion a year from the US alone. Add to this additional sales from ckd drugs already worth tens of millions to both AZN and TF and it's a valuable investment.
It's important to the US health insurance industry to get this right too. Doesn't mean it's guaranteed.