RE: Strategic Platform Licences (SPL)2 Feb 2024 09:58
I think there is a growing sense of inevitability developing here. As you say, another two licencing agreements to add to the many others on the books.
I don't think the market has accepted yet (somehow) the scale of the opportunity, or indeed the likelihood (inevitability?) or it happening. The Crispr/Vertex FDA approvals fully validate the platform - the treatment is seen as potentially reaching peak sales of $3bn. Assuming, for arguments sake, it peaks at $1bn and Maxcyte has an approx 3% royalty on the sales, then that would result in $30m additional income annual from this one treatment. On top of that is the consumables (no idea what that would be worth per year, but presumably 7 figures), and additional sales/lease of the machines.
Crispr/Vertex have outlined that they intend to open 50 treatment centers, and you would have thought that each would have a one of the Maxcyte machines to produce the treatment. Previous investor presentations have outlined that they cost $250k p/a for lease for clinical use. Perhaps crispr/vertex will buy the machines for each site, but assuming they pay $250k p/a lease for each of the 50 sites, then that alone equates to a further $12.5m p/a in revenue.
This one treatment could therefore sustain circa $45m p/a in revenue for Maxcyte (based on conservative figures), which exceeds the entire current revenue. And this is just one programme. There are 25 partnerships signed since 2017, and 125+ clinical licences related to the partnerships, of which 2 are approved, 1 is in a pivotal trial, 10 are in phase 1/2, and numerous others are in phase 1. All of these will be leasing the machines, paying for the consumables, and potentially paying milestones should they progress.
Yet here we are, with circa $200m in cash, $400m mcap, and therefore $200m EV - which is frankly almost unbelievable. The upside is huge and, as I say, now almost inevitable.