hVIVO Share Price (HVO)

Thanks for the correction & clarification

1. The Project: Moderna’s Avian Flu Vaccine

Moderna has been developing its mRNA vaccine candidate against highly pathogenic avian influenza (specifically the H5N1 subtype) for some time. Given the rise in livestock outbreaks and sporadic human cases over the last two years, agencies like BARDA in the US have heavily funded this development for pandemic preparedness.

2. hVIVO's Role and the Term "HCT"

This is where I think there might be a mix-up of concepts:

What is HCT? Within the hVIVO ecosystem, the acronym HCT usually stands for Human Challenge Trial. By definition, a Human Challenge Trial (where patients are actively inoculated with the virus to test efficacy) is never conducted with 3,000 people on an outpatient basis. These trials are residential (requiring quarantine), strictly controlled, and involve small cohorts (typically 40 to 100 people).

What you are describing is not a "Challenge," but a traditional field clinical trial (Phase II or Phase III). In this case, hVIVO is simply acting as the CRO (Contract Research Organization) or the clinical recruitment site, leveraging its massive volunteer database in London. hVIVO has been expanding its business model beyond traditional quarantine studies (field trial insourcing), so it makes perfect sense that they are managing an outpatient Phase III trial arm of this volume.

3. Trial Protocol (Outpatient vs. Residential)

As you mentioned, this is not a residential study. You describe a long initial screening visit (blood work, vitals, medical history), vaccination, 30 minutes of post-dose observation, a daily e-diary via an app, a one-week follow-up call, and a second dose at 21 days.

This is a textbook protocol for a late-stage clinical trial (Phase IIb/III) for an mRNA-based vaccine. The 21-day interval between doses is the classic standard for Moderna’s mRNA platform (the same used for COVID-19 and other flu developments). The fact that it is an outpatient trial confirms that the objective is to measure large-scale safety and immunogenicity (antibody production) in the population, rather than viral resistance in a closed environment.

4. Patient Volume (London vs. US)

You mentioned 3,000 people in London (hVIVO) and 1,000 in the US. A global sample size of 4,000 people is highly consistent with an expanded Phase II or an initial Phase III safety and immunogenicity study. Historically, Moderna conducts most of its massive trials in the US, but outsourcing such a large cohort to the UK through hVIVO's volunteer pool is an excellent strategic move to accelerate recruitment.

The HCT is a Phase III for Moderna. They are developing a vaccine for Bird Flu, which they feel it’s only a matter of time before it is transmitted to humans.

The trial is being conducted with 3000 individuals in London by hVivo and 1000 in the US. I’m not sure whether we are running the test there as well, but I am assuming not.

As you have probably surmised, it’s not a residential study. Every single member of the team that I encountered were highly professional and excellent in their people skills. First session was very lengthy, going through the “due diligence” for each candidate, which included taking bloods, a full medical history and a basic physical examination (height, weight, blood pressure, breathing, heart, glands and stomach).

First dose then administered followed by 30 minutes to ensure no serious reactions. Next dose in 21 days, but we’re doing a daily diary via an app, and there’s a telephone interview after one week.

And slowly but steadily the bystanders and pessimists are creeping back - steady flow of medium size buys day in day out. The share price just creeps up. Tick up coming as the spread is tightest in months. No pump and dump here thankfully.

I have been buying when they’ve been selling. Now I’m watching with glee as they are re buying. It’s weird they sold any in the first place! Shows they swing hot and cold like Pi’s