Arrow Explor. Share Price (AXL)

A good use of 3 minutes ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IL8hg90RB4E

Full article: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Will-Colombias-New-President-Upend-Its-Oil-Industry.html

A key part of the article:
'..For these reasons, Petro’s plans to end contracting for oil exploration have triggered considerable conjecture that it will significantly impact government revenues, preventing the president-elect from implementing his economic reforms. It is estimated that the president-elect’s plans will be impacted by a massive budget black hole which will worsen if Petro ends extractivist industries in Colombia...'

and this:
'..Those numbers indicate Colombia’s oil production will grow over the immediate future, even once Petro takes office and is able to successfully implement his plan to end contracts for oil exploration. It is likely that Colombia’s crude oil output will return to over 800,000 barrels of crude oil per day at some time in the immediate future. ...'

From the above juxtaposed points, the obvious solution imo is to increase tax on Production - and heavily, like the UK windfall tax.

Part 2

While Petro’s electoral victory has, rightfully so, unnerved financial markets, investors, and Colombia’s petroleum industry, his plans to end oil exploration the immediate fallout is likely to be minor because of his intentions to allow existing contracts to continue operating.'

Part 1

Colombian Oil Industry - Matthew Smith / Latin American based O&G Investment Management Professional who writes for Oilprice.com

'Petro’s policies have sparked a frenzied debate in Colombia about the future of the Andean country’s oil industry which is a key driver of the economy. For the first four months of 2022 petroleum exports generated $6.6 billion, making crude oil responsible for 36% of all export earnings for that period.

Total petroleum and derivative products exported represent around 70% of Colombia’s petroleum production. According to Colombia’s peak hydrocarbon industry body, the Colombian Petroleum Association(ACP), crude oil is responsible for nearly a fifth of the central government’s fiscal income. Those numbers emphasise how critical the oil industry is to Colombia’s economy and for ensuring the crisis-driven country’s energy security.

A key aspect of Petro’s plan for Colombia’s oil industry that is often overlooked is his plan to allow existing contracts to continue operating for as long as Colombia’s proven reserves are sufficient to justify commercial operations. That means, over the short to medium term, there will likely be little to no material impact on Colombia’s oil production.

Indeed, there are signs that with the oil rally driving greater investment in Colombia’s industry that production will expand even after Petro takes office on 7 August 2022. The ACP stated at the start of 2022 that forecast investment in oil and natural gas production will reach $4.4 billion during the year, which is 42% greater than a year earlier.

According to the industry body spending on hydrocarbon exploration during 2022 will reach $1.1 billion, which is 2.2 times greater than in 2021 and the highest since 2014. This is reflected by the forecast 2022 budgets of drillers operating in Colombia. National oil company Ecopetrol, which is 88.5% owned by the state, announced plans to invest up to $5.8 billion in 2022, which represents a 45% increase over 2021.

Colombia’s largest privately owned oil producer Parex Resources boosted 2022 capital spending by 98.6% year over year to $550 million with most of that amount directed to exploration and development drilling.

That marked increase in exploration and development drilling is reflected by the latest Baker Hughes rig count, which shows that at the end of May 2022 there were 29 operational drill rigs in Colombia. While that is one less than a month earlier it is significantly higher than the 16 operational rigs for the same period a year earlier and the 25 rigs operating at the end of May 2019.

Those numbers indicate Colombia’s oil production will grow over the immediate future, even once Petro takes office and is able to successfully implement his plan to end contracts for oil exploration. It is likely that Colombia’s crude oil output will return to over 800,000 barrels of crude oil per day at some time in the immediate future.

Cheapest oiler on the market and you want good news ;) we just need the re-rating.

As MT pointed out look at Ptal when Castillo was elected. All we need is time