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Proximal ore adding two years to mine life , did anyone notice this comment over the weekend ?
No, missed that comment NG was it elsewhere in the roast podcast? Only listened to the xtract segment.
Couple of other points CB made stuck out. Firstly once the full study is complete and if, with a successful influence on the economic model from ore sorting. He implied they may no longer need to increase the size of the resource with the targeted drilling to NE/NW previously mentioned.
Secondly he gave an impression that the full study they are aiming for now with the further test results of the low grade for pre-concentration could be what AA will make a decision on.
Both comments tie in together, and also correlate with Steve’s notes taken from Colin at AGM’22 …..
>>>The intention seems to be to get the AA decision out of the way early. Colin expects copper price to reach 15,000, so (reading between the lines) it seems to me they want to announce this model while we are below 2mt and the copper price is low in order to get a 'no' from Anglo.
Phase 3 will follow the above (which is interesting as they assume there will be a phase 3) and will cover more definition on RC higher grade area to improve the IRR, further drilling at Ascot and NW of RC, which they now seem to think is actually open again. This will happen sequentially, not all at once.
Start talking to various majors who are more likely interested because they already have a presence in the area (Newcrest?). Again reading between the lines, it sounds like informal contacts may have already happened. Colin made it clear that when a deal happens, it can happen quickly.
From Steve’s notes it makes sense of Colin’s previous comment that “we are heading towards a pre feasibility study”, possibly then, once they get a decision from Anglo. They either buy it or xtract continue to increase the resource whilst they actively market the project for an interested party to come in at anytime
Does all tie in, particularly so with his “a bit more patience comment again. Changes the landscape somewhat.
Hz - agreed. Colin had high hopes which he acknowledged in the podcast. But we are where we are and as Colin said, 2 x earnings approx is taking the p*ss.
Hi, sorry hz i should have been clearer , i was referring to the results statement with regards fairbride at manica . I have also noted on google maps that there has been an increase in activity around guy fawkes and we appear to be removing the top of a hill .
No, my apologies NG for assuming you meant podcast.
The scope of work around fb pit and to bring satellite mines into play already is encouraging toward seeing a very decent run.
Per the strategic review section, known Oxides and transitional are expected to provide at least another two years mine life with the current set up. Which to my knowledge has always been the rough expectation so not sure I get what these proximals are adding (I certainly could be misunderstanding something)?
Cheers
James
Digging a bit deeper into ‘this’ comment from Steve’s notes-
“it seems to me they want to announce this model while we are below 2mt and the copper price is low in order to get a 'no' from Anglo.
Just considering why Xtract would want AA to pass up on their option to buy it back. As per the terms there is a good possibility that ‘AA’ would want the project to go to third party valuation, which would happen if there is too big a gulf in what xtract want and what AA are willing to pay first off , as they could pay far less than if it were on the global market.
If it went to third party consultancy valuation then it would be valued in accordance with the VALMIN code, which as part of the broader Australian regulatory environment, places certain constraints on the valuation process and is very specific on how such values are presented to the market.
Understandably, Xtract would want to present BR in the best light and to want its value aligned to those inflated expectations on copper prices to return the best value to shareholders. Is less likely to happen under the Valmin code.
Dani >>> Why wouldn't AA buy BR when we are below 2mt and POC below $10Kt and sell on when it reaches $15Kt ?
Without a viable mining study it’s far less likely they would move on BR before.
There is the term in the agreement too that gives AA a one time opportunity to make an offer but that is still once 2mt is reached. So any approach beforehand will fall outside of the agreement and not go to third party consultancy valuation and subsequently through the Valmin code. So xtract could command a higher valuation based on their own assessment of worth.
As have said before IMO the project is not going anywhere whilst xtract are continually de risking it for them by providing that up to date economic assessment, and the opportunity to for it to be valued by third party.