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I often see references to a Telegram thread for XTR. I am a complete newbie to Telegram but have signed up. Can anyone point me towards a useful thread. Does one have to be invited to take part? Thanks in advance.
You need to be invited, but I can't post an invite on here - last time I tried I was banned :)
You may be able to find an invite on Twitter somewhere. The Telegram channel is good though, especially as it is a lot easier to post pictures, documents, etc. so you tend to see more research.
Thank you. All sorted re: Telegram.
A question, on another quiet day, for anyone with any view on this ... I have read that we may have sight of a 'JORC' by December. But there is also the conceptual pit model that is due to emerge. I think Colin Bird said imminently, or soon, or some other term that has been taken by most to mean next year ... ! Although my take from the last but one appearance on The Sunday Roast was that Colin Bird let slip, later on, that the conceptual pit model should land late October. It felt like an unguarded moment wrapped up in a burst of enthusiastic burbling.
So am I right that the conceptual pit model is what will be accompanied by the 'decision 2 mine' declaration as it demonstrates an economical pit waiting to be got on with? This is of course the trigger for AA to excercise their buy back clause if they should so wish.
So what is the significance of this JORC, if it is due as late as December. Is it required. Might ProspectOre be enjoying the love of a new (old) owner before that JORC lands? Or will the potential sale to AA or anyone, rely on the existence of the JORC?
Any contributions to these gaps in my understanding are much appreciated.
And did anyone else pick up on that slipped comment (Sunday Roast, a month or so ago) about the conceptual pit model landing in late Oct/early Nov?
Zero,
I would imagine that the conceptual pit model would incorporate the JORC assessment.
For a model to be created, the amount of Cu needs to be known and the level of confidence in that resource needs to be known so I can't see how the model can be published without a JORC associated with it.
Just my take on it.
A revised open pit model will need to be carried out using the updated JORC for Racecourse. Below is taken from conceptual study RNS back in July ‘21
>>The preliminary conceptual open pit optimisation mining study ("Conceptual Study") was completed by independent consultant, Optimal Mining Solutions (Pty) Ltd of Australia ("Optimal"). Where appropriate, other independent consultants were used, including Cartledge Mining and Geotechnics together with Lycopodium (mineral processing experts).<<
The pit design will be carried out at this stage too.
Is likely both RC and Ascot resource statements will be reported firstly.
I agree with Cygnus.
The last modelling of the conceptual open pit used the existing JORC and didn’t include anything found by the XTR drilling. All the XTR finds should now be built into the modelling and a new JORC estimate issued. Hopefully not too long to wait now.
I’d really like some gold rich assays from Footrot RNS’ed first to give the SP a kick!
I'm sorry, I have to laugh. Several people saying words along the lines 'not long to wait'. I remember my prediction of good news and a re-rate in about September .That was September 2021 by the way. We can only hope. One day the words 'soon/imminent/not long now/etc' will turn out to be right. But just because Colin said late Oct/Early November means diddly-squat. He has said a lot of things. Won't be a dead of a thousand cuts. Was it six weeks he said more than six months ago. I am fairly confident it will happen and we will get a really decent re-rate... but I am now much less certain when. September 2023 anyone? Ha Ha perhaps I should just say Serptember and leave others to fill in the year!
*death not dead
The difference in this case was the date estimation was in an RNS, not an interview.
Was meant to include this bit from last study in my last post
>>Open pit modelling was carried out using the currently defined JORC (2012) compliant Inferred Resource of 71Mt @ 0.44% Cu and 0.064 g/t Au at a cut-off of 0.3% Cu, as well as additional unclassified resources at the Racecourse prospect
Screenlearner - Most of us have been guilty of underestimating how long things would take but phase 2 is now finished, most of the assays are back, and we've been told there is no plan for a phase 3. So we just have to wait until they are ready to issue the new resource estimates and the modelling. I would hope we are talking weeks rather than months... but they could be famous last words!
A question for those in the know ... how complicated is the modelling? I presume there is established 'go to' software that can be used. The datapoints available from which the geophysics is interpolated are surely limited to what they have pulled out of the drill holes, and the infrastructure of the processing plant, the workforce and all other equipment is a complicated (I am sure) but not unique project to be costed.
I know many here have got their fag packets out and made their own calculations from the reports from the drill core and assay reports, etc. Surely all of that is woefully inadequate and ;potentially very wide of the mark (despite people declaring how definately likely or unlikely 2MT may be), but I expect the level of sophistication of the tools being used is high. And also clever enough to tweak, add data, create scenarios etc almost at the click of a mouse?
Just think of all those features and inputs in the modelling software that will be left blank, ie adding no additional costs. Currency risks, political risks, seasonal extreme weather considerations, power provision, transport of all kinds, skilled and semi skilled labour availability, security, etc etc!
ZM what you are talking of there is at feasibility or even pre-feasibility study level.
This updated financial model will be more comprehensive than the last one, but still barely at scoping study.
Its not my area of expertise. Curious to discover how it all works, and have really enjoyed expanding my knowledge over the last year or so.
@Steve4077, It was a long RNS but I don't remember seeing any dates. The relevant sections that I could find were:
(1) ... are now working on the overall geological model for Ascot, which will then be used to produce a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate for the Ascot Prospect. This will be in addition to the updated Racecourse mineral resource estimate which is close to completion."
(2)Xtract is now incorporating all the geological and geochemical data from the Ascot prospect into a geological model which will be used to estimate a maiden Mineral Resource (JORC 2012) for the Ascot prospect. In tandem with this, a revised resource estimate is in preparation for the Racecourse deposit. This will then be used as the basis for an updated conceptual open pit mining study.
Did I miss it? Is it hidden in the text somewhere or in a different RNS and my speed reading skills need refreshing? If not he dates are just Colin's usual elastic timescales. 'Close to completion' sounds less exciting to me than the 'imminent' he has used several times before!
Hi ZM Racecourse as it stands is still in very early days toward being a mine. Xtracts job is to just show a level of confidence to a major that there is scope to be profitable. ‘A starter project’, which hopefully a major will take it up to the next study level and so on. There will be lots more infilling and further exploration drilling, let alone environmental impact studies etc. to eventually get to a high level of geological confidence in the resource. As it evolves through the many stages incrementally, eventually it will need to be mostly measured to convert to a proven resource that is required to support a definitive feasibility study to then go into detailed mine planning and engineering in justification of the billion or so CapEx it will eventually need.
Inferred and indicated resources are far too speculative to support financial studies at higher levels.
I think with the sheer scale of bushranger, and where it is positioned along its evolutionary journey, a ‘major’ may not necessarily be the next to take it on from here.
Screenlearner
Re dates
This was in half yearly report RNS:
"The company will now utilise all the Phase Two drilling data to update the Racecourse prospect mineral resource and subsequently will update the open pit mining study for the Racecourse prospect which was previously completed in April 2021. The updated mining study is planned for completion before the end of 2022."
AND
"Drilling and assay data from the Ascot prospect will be used to complete a maiden mineral resource estimation for the Ascot prospect, which will be finalised prior to the end of 2022."
Foreward estimates of timescales in a half yearly report do not carry the weight of a promise. rRad the small print. Also end of 2022 is not late October/early November, And I planned to be a millionaire before I was 20....Strangely enough it didn't happen. Plans often have to be revised. My point is not that Colin won't deliver, it is just that to trust someone on dates who has such a poor track record is an exercise in hope over experience.