Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
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One bit of useful info that came out of the interview yesterday was FB production. CB said it was now at 30kg a month. At the AGM he said we started at 20kg and still talked about 100kg as the full production income amount. So at that rate of increase (10kg over last 2 full months) it may take us sometime to get to CB’s reported 100kg.
Empress Royalty have stated that we will be at COMMERCIAL production by end of the year (NOT FULL production.
We should have a better idea after commercial production has been confirmed by end of the year and then know what the actual Kg per month is.
I can’t believe we are going to increase production by 70kg a month in less than 2 months after increasing it by 10kg in the last 2 months.
I suspect full production won’t be 100kg as CB stated and we wont reach full production until Q2 2023.
The problem with a raise is the message it sends after all CB has said about significant FB income and no P3 drilling (if that is what money from a raise was used for).
Why would we raise IF substantial FB income was coming very soon?
I would not be happy with a raise before the sale of Bushranger.
Xtract need to get a few existing (some very late) projects properly over the line before getting distracted with something new. They need to build a reputation for delivering if they want the market to take them seriously and become more than another junior dreamer.
For sure, start researching new investments but keep the begging bowl locked away until Bushranger is sold and Xtract has proved its' mettle (excuse the pun).
Another raise shouldn’t be a concern, if it’s timed right and is a genuine growth opportunity ie a substantial increase in returns from a phase 3 drill programme at RC or drilling for deep sulphides and pit extensions at Eureka. Further discovery potential at Fairbride and during next year will design plant additions, which will allow treatment of all mineralisation gold types found in the area.
Even the couple of, it sounds like mid sized operations they are looking at in Zambia. The aim is to identify deposits of 1-5 years production capability in a safe jurisdiction at a rate of about 50,000 tonnes per year, that are near to production and not too cash front end heavy and importantly nearby to offsite processing facilities. These are basically a license to print money.
If the conditions are right for a BR sale and the known geological understanding of other assets can be exploited, xtract could be a serious contender up there with jubilee with 3-400 million market cap in a couple or three years. Xtract have a solid foundation now, a sensible strategy for growth with good assets now across the board and will push to grow the company.
Colin stepped down from jubilee as he felt his skills were more suited to companies less advanced in their development. He must be setting his sights toward matching jubilee, he once commented he could see xtract having a 400million market cap. Who knows?
"OK - not official yet, but didn't he state in an interview that the anomalies north of RC would 'get us to the 2MT'? -
I'm sure you are correct Gixxer. I was just giving CB the chance to confirm the official figures before making a definitive statement. I'm not expecting RC to be 2mt
As or the "large buys" I just think that's FOMO and some getting ready for possible good news before end of the year.
Volume is still low and if there was any leaks then I would expect the volume to be much much higher with many very big buys with sp nearer 6p then 3p
>>For the record, I don't expect there to be a P3 campaign or another acquisition, and I still think a major will buy out Bushranger with what we have now.
I hope so in the near term, it's been a fecking baptism of fire here that's for sure.
The recent large buys of late would suggest there's something going on the background (XTR has always been a leaky ship WRT news). I'd initially thought it was the HR assets pumping out big numbers but based on his comment in the interview (I think he said a total of 35kg last month) it appears we are still a way off the 90-110kg Bird has predicted.
>>Tbf, we can't yet say CB was wrong with 2mt RC comment until the amount has been confirmed. Never know, it may be 2mt at RC...but I'm not expecting it to be !
OK - not official yet, but didn't he state in an interview that the anomalies north of RC would 'get us to the 2MT'? - apologies if that's wrong I'm not paying as much attention to XTR as I used to.
My 2 Red flags would be another drilling campaign and another acquisition before Bushranger is sold.
The "begging bowl" comment was also a slight concern. Maybe nothing in it though.
There may well be some who will try and see a p3 drill campaign or another acquisition as a positive thing, but I bet the market would not see it that way -- not after all CB has said re what we have at Bushranger ie Tier 1, one of biggest discoveries in that area etc etc
I'm assuming and hoping CB would have not been such an idiot to keep building all this up, even very recently, unless he was sure of what we had and that AA or someone else was interested.
Tbf, we can't yet say CB was wrong with 2mt RC comment until the amount has been confirmed. Never know, it may be 2mt at RC...but I'm not expecting it to be !
For the record, I don't expect there to be a P3 campaign or another acquisition, and I still think a major will buy out Bushranger with what we have now..
Have you got a link to that footage Gixxer?
The 'not been out with the begging bowl' statement is also of concern, another raise to pay for the purchase of another one of his 'company makers' or a P3 after all.
If it is I just hope he does his DD for once and it's not a mine owned by some local gangster/ A company using diamond plant to run alluvials or an IOCG that turns out to be a pile of mud....
>>It would also give the impression that AA or another major are not interested with what we currently have now, as the intention, just a few months ago, was to sell what we had.
Agreed, he's already backtracked on the 2MT statement at RC. I rewatched the footage today, it's no misunderstanding, he highlights RC when he makes the comment.
Shaun day said something that just compounded the drive for copper in the near future.
The fact is the world needs metals, and if you believe in the electrification, your safest bet is in copper as you are not betting on what the next technology will be in batteries, you are betting on the fact you need to conduct the electricity.
So even if we see Hydrogen cell vehicles having a massive upsurge in demand sooner than expected, these are still driven by electric motors and would no doubt carry some level of battery storage too.
There is no getting away from the need for copper even if fully electric cars turn out to be just a stop gap if miraculously they could convert all infrastructure to hydrogen refuelling stations in a few years.
Hi Butlerman
If Q4 revenue is much improved, better than Q3 it would potentially coincide with a conclusion to AA’s interest in the project. So no definitive decision on what to do next will happen until then. Even if they have a good idea of their intent already.
So if not until then, then potentially before, the resource statements would be delivered which the market will have waited for to de-risk. So to coincide with when commodities turn bullish it will be difficult to see the market cap stagnate with the kind of news due that will significantly improve the fundamentals of the company.
>>>Copper futures fell below $3.8 per pound from the five-month high of $4 hit on November 11th, pressured by concerns of lower demand. Data from top consumer China showed that industrial production slowed more than expected in October, while house prices decline for the sixth consecutive month and further emphasized low demand for the country's highly indebted property developers. Still, copper prices remain 11% higher since the start of November as looming supply concerns limited the retreat.<<<
We clearly haven’t seen that tipping point just yet. But when it does, if there is an opportunity to exit at 10-15p how many ‘investors’ will want to I wonder?
Just keep an open mind that’s all.
The problem with a phase 3 drilling prog is that CB has explicitly stated that we wont be doing that when he said (paraphrase) "Shareholders wouldn't thank me for doing another round of drilling"
It would also give the impression that AA or another major are not interested with what we currently have now, as the intention, just a few months ago, was to sell what we had.
Because of this, I don't think we will be doing anymore drilling. If CB now announces that we are, I don't think the market will like that and will draw its own conclusions why we are.
Howzap, I wouldn’t mind waiting to prove the resources up further if the share price was 6-7p now, but I would be worried about it falling further in the meantime whilst waiting for further exploration. So I’d really like to see the share price recover to 6p+ in the short term, with the MRE or African Gold results. I’ve been underwater for a while now, and would to like to see my original investment achieved, before I was asked to wait several months longer.
If you take overall the essence of what he is saying, about what to do with the geophysics, and the fact they haven’t been out with the begging bowl for a while yet. Could be a hint, there could be a further extensive exploration phase in the likelihood that AA may not want back in.
The company will always be looking to keep options open as long as possible and keep cards close to their chest anyway so wouldn’t read into anything at this time. As far as we know from official RNS the company are considering a third phase, so keep open minded with expectations for now I’d say.
The first hurdle is, and has always been the objective to get to one or both the trigger points as soon as possible to see if they want back in or not.
I doubt if that has changed.
When kiawara sold kalumbila it was probably the right thing to do at the time. But have always felt Colin was regretful not being able to advance the project further to have achieved a greater value. (In hindsight anyway. ) Colin may not want to see that happen with Xtract if there is scope to advance Bushranger further up that value curve. He wouldn’t be doing his job for shareholders if he undersold it.
Well I enjoyed the chat. Good background stuff about metals and Cu etc. Supply and demand issues coming up. Little stockpiled Cu.
26.50 -
"major discover" " No doubt in my mind"
If you listen , it's obvious his depth of knowledge and I can't see how anyone would say he doesn't know what to do.Okay he does come across as a car salesman sometimes, but you did walk into the showroom.
Holding firm.
"I would like to think CB can't talk too much about Xtract as there are lots going on in the background re buy-outs."
one of the producers of that podcast did mention elsewhere earlier, having just finished the recording, that "things are happening ... but he can't say much, so ... hold your horses"
read into that what you will.
"Yeah ok... that interview does actually makes me think he still has no clue what to do and that news is not as close as we hope.... Any other thoughts?"
Are you asking if you have any other thoughts? I doubt it. So your takeaway from the midweek takeaway is that Colin Bird is clueless?
I think it was more of a general chat re copper / gold prospects and not about a discussion about Xtract or individual companies.
I'm not too sure it was helpful re Xtract's future direction. I would like to think CB can't talk too much about Xtract as there are lots going on in the background re buy-outs.
Well, that's what I would like to think....
Yeah ok... that interview does actually makes me think he still has no clue what to do and that news is not as close as we hope.... Any other thoughts?
Right now in this bear market even legitimate discoveries are not recognized. Mining stocks have been hammered down so much there is a disconnect between asset values and market caps. So you have to ask, ‘Is it not desirable?’” Or is it something people are just not seeing or they don’t have the guts to buy it right now.
Bushranger will probably be the biggest undeveloped resource in australia, bigger than Rio’s Winu. So If, for whatever internal or external reason AA don’t want back in, other big boys will be lining up for it.
Besides, with a current market cap of 30million!
Production income from hard rock and alluvials expected to be in the region of £10mpa for at least 6 years, would potentially give a forward PE ratio of 2?? Is justification enough to see a lot higher support level once meaningful income is reported.
When news starts dropping, especially on both fronts, the share price recovery will be swift
Scrap that, I've just seen some other news that has derailed that thought process.
Sandfire have withdrawn from a Doolgunna farm in agreement. Could this have an impact on XTR?