Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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Why is this stock struggling so much?
To me this looks like a great buy at this level but why is it continuing to drop when they are expanding successfully, with constant large corporate bookings in a high-growth industry, are there any risks i'm not aware of here? Seems to have minimal debt, on track to turn profitable, is the market really waiting for confirmation?
I'm nibbling here, there are some real bargains on AIM where solid growth companies are getting seemingly punished for no reason, at first glace this seems to be another case of that.
Maybe, maybe an II needs cash, most would have got involved on the 30p placing so must be well down.
The key thing is, can BBB make profit on a location level. Not ebita tax adjusted bs.
Can it make money. That seems to be the piece of information they won't give.
I thought we were going to finish up for a minute then, should have known better
Certainly feels like someone wants to keep it in a down trend
Certainly feels like someone wants to keep it in a down trend
Don’t forget that this is the AIM market. It can be very corrupt with false news and corrupt market makers manufacturing share pricing.
It can be very painful holding AIM shares!!
Just watched Justin's podcast with Paul hill and he sold out a while ago
Seemingly so - and he had a LOT at one point!
However, worth noting the next part of the conversation in which he talked about buying back in soon and what a great opportunity it is down here
I think it's safe to say he's no Charlie Munger
Much more of a trader than an investor
Justin no Charlie Munger
To be fair, I think branding him a trader is a little harsh - he's as close to an investor as anyone else I see share content
He has bags of enthusiasm and doe a lot of homework and is relentless in his pursuit of companies he things fit his criteria.
His Tick List is:
1. Growing business
2. Small to Medium companies whose potential mCAP can double or greater
3. Cash Generative
4. Share price is not in a downtrend
5. Plenty of liquidity
6. Decent executive / management team
Those are all pretty good indicators - not something most traders look for
5 out of 6 ain't bad. Why do you think he sold out of XPF?
His portfolio was doing brilliantly - and then went into decline during the bear market
He genuinely bought a lot of Escape Hunt at an avg of sub 10p. The SP went north of 30p before starting to fall.
Not sure what he sold at, but he saw it drop a long way from 30p
He'd ignored the downtrend because he was such a fan of the company
He then chose to change his strategy - sold most of his positions in small companies to hold cash and a fund.
I'm not having a go, up to him what he does with his money.
Just saying you never heard Munger say he sold out because it was stuck in a range, I don't think the story has changed
I'm still hopeful. As the saying goes, I don't want to sell down here, still hopeful they are turning a profit
Agree with you - I was also taught that charts etc were nonsense.
But a lot of traders believe there is a lot to learn from them
We can all go visit the venues and see for ourselves how they're doing, personally I visited 3 so far, and have generally been impressed. I've also traulled through numerous reviews online for all the venues. These are my takeaways.
The positives
- People that visit most venues have fun, like the vibe and the games.
- Many say they will return.
- The staff at the majority of the venues get good reviews and make the games more fun for customers.
- Management are all over the reviews responding to positive and negative points and asking for further feedback on the negative ones.
- Staff seem happy to let gamers have a bit of extra time when the venues are less busy for no extra cost.
- Most venues had 4.5 to 5 star rating.
The negatives
- BBB Cardiff seems to be having issues, it sounds like it's poorly managed, poor staff, not clean (trashy was mentioned more than once), slow service, also staff have reviewed it negatively here. Does sound like it's very busy though which probably doesn't help the above.
- Some games are broken, seems to be crazy golf having the majority of issues here at various venues, I had similar experience in Exeter BBB.
- Rude or uninterested Staff, again seems isolated but quite a common cause for complaints.
- Bookings either not getting enough time or slow to setup games.
Why post this, Personally I feel like customer experience here will be the make or break of this company, if we are excellent in this area then this should be reflected in the amount of customers visiting and the SP/Financial results. Cheers
Nice post Cheezer
It's generally accepted that is you have a bad experience you are more likely to review and or tell lots of people
There will always be times when people have a bade experience - so if reviews are mostly positive - that is a good sign
And hopefuly, if management are all over the reviews as you say, they will address the issues in Cardiff
I think the Cardiff venue is a bit of a different beast. More of a nightclub venue, so you get the usual issues, people giving crappy reviews as they are refused entry, stuff like that.
May need a refurb though, I saw this yesterday so maybe they are working through the original venues
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7136414002917576704?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_feedUpdate%3A%28V2%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7136414002917576704%29
Thanks for the share. I had a look at a few of the GMs - some talented employees
With regards to BBB Cardiff I have confidence that xpf management are aware of the issues there, so I'm sure they will be addressed. A refurb/refresh to bring up to standard of the recent venues sounds like it could help. From a maintenance point of view BBB will be more demanding than the escape hunt side of the business. There are BBB doing new year's eve party events with paid entry so there is a bit of diversification there away from just offering paid games, I'm guessing this will be more suitable to the sites that have space for that sort of thing.
I'm going to make a prediction that we have seen the bottom
Justin Waite talked positively last week and seemed intent on buying back in
Some great contributions to this BB in recent weeks
I did a "mystery customer' enquiry at three venues to suss out Xmas party availability - it sounds like they are really busy and a great opportunity for XPF to report some record numbers
I genuinely beleive we could be looking at the next Hollywood Bowl here _ I'm just not convinced whether it will be under this owenrship structure or whether Private Equity will snap this up and join it up with some of the other players in experiencial and competitive leisure
There is a pattern here. It has lost 90%+ of value since the original float in 2017 and directors seem happy with this looking to future growth fuelled by expansion in EH and BBB. All intl growth stopped and focus solely UK and no news to the point where financial comms is non-existent. Statements show shares hyper diluted from directors SIPS plan, salaries very high and admin expenses also high and not detailed. Maybe a bit of a retirement fund for a handful of people in the SIPS? Good news is the stock has to fly once they have bought enough to retire!
I think it's a little unfair to compare the business from 2017 considering the company only purchased the Boom Battle Bar brand on 3rd November 2021. I have no problem with a slowed international growth as I feel there is no point running before you can walk. They rolled out 27 BBB sites last year and although the pace has slowed recently , they have been repurchasing master franchise's from existing sites, which will only add to their economies of scale. There is also a high level of institutional Investors in this stock who have all purchased higher than this price as it's almost at atl. The scale of the enhanced estate should show in the full year results . I have my work Christmas party at the newly opened Canterbury branch next week and I will report back on how I feel it was , business wise and experience wise. I am confident in this stock.
They have escape rooms in: Uk, Portugal, Spain, France, quatar, UAE, USA, Norway, Netherlands, Kuwait, Belgium , Australia. Plus they opened their first international boom bar in Dubai, July if I remember correctly. This is what the ceo said in interims as a main focus;
“2. Accelerate growth in international territories, ultimately through franchise
We opened our first international Boom Battle Bar® in Dubai and are actively exploring possibilities in other territories. In the short term, however, our focus will remain the UK with the aim of developing a robust, defensible business capable of international franchise.”
And also copied and paste from interims;
“Initial analysis supports our expectation that in the longer-term, we see an opportunity to scale the business considerably domestically and internationally, with a market opportunity of +50 Escape Hunt® and +100 Boom Battle Bar® sites in the UK alone.
Internationally, our Dubai site has opened ahead of expectations and we see a significant opportunity in time to roll out our proven concept overseas with reduced execution risk.”
I know from most recent interview that they’re looking to increases their target for amount of sites also.
I do think there is a global shift happening on how we all socialise. This article is talking about the USA market;
https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/insights/from-putt-to-pint-everyone-wins-with-competitive-socializing
It’s says: “According to Cushman & Wakefield research, competitive socializing concepts have grown 386% since the beginning of 2021.”
I do think both boom battle bars and escape rooms are so scalable, domestically and internationally. I’m sure big players in the leisure industry are eyeing this up at this level personally. It’s in a growing market and due to do around 40mil revenue and at 24mil mcap. Seems a no brainer to me. I’d be interested to see if someone can give me a compelling argument otherwise.