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Agreed Don. The prospects drilled so far on Kaieteur and Canje were selected over two years ago. Since then a huge amount of drilling has taken place within the basin resulting in a large number of discoveries both in Guyana and Suriname and a very different exploration picture. All of those discoveries are on blocks where either Exxon or Total are partners (Stabroek, Block 58, Block 52) and as a result our partners have a lot of new data they can use to re-calibrate their understanding of our licences and narrow down the search for successful targets. The fact Exxon has applied for authorization for up to 24 wells across the blocks indicates they like what they see. With such an outlook this drop looks like an excellent time to get in ahead of such an extensive drilling campaign. I have added quite a few today. GLA
A few muppets posting on here this morning that obviously, despite their claims haven't a clue about the industry. Those are Exon drills, JHI have an interest but will have next to zero say in selecting drill location, analysing data etc, and thats the way it should be- Exon are the experts . WTE are not even at the table.
Those drills are not WildCat drills as such but are still Exploration drills, not appraisals, so the CoS is still relatively low. Most would or should have worked out that a successfull drill would have doubled the SP with a duster dropping it below 10p - High risk, High reward.
I suspect that this has been slightly overdone and will settle around the 9p level later this week or next as the longer term investors buy and others realise that WTE are funded and carried for a few more drills to hit the jackpot.
https://demerarawaves.com/2021/10/27/fangtooth-is-next-drill-prospect-in-the-stabroek-block/
https://www.noblecorp.com/our-fleet/fleet/default.aspx
Bob Douglas, Don Taylor, and Sam Croft are contracted to Q42022; and Tom Madden to Q12027.
I always find it hard to fathom why people sell at the bottom.Common sense dictates buy now and double your money before next drill.
"After years of investing into AIM oilers"............... I learnt to cross ramp ;-)
Stena Carron and Stena Drillmax are with Exxon until end of year:
https://ocean-energyresources.com/2021/06/09/new-contracts-for-stena-drilling/
However, under fleet availability they are contracted up until end of June 2022.
https://www.stena-drilling.com/our-fleet/stena-carron/
Does anyone know if this additional 6 month contract is with Exxon?
4th time lucky hopefully. I got in at 15p :(
Tanager was not a duster and nor were Joe and Jethro.
It’s shocking how JHI are hitting the dusters whilst Exxon are having great success else where in region.
Ratio guy gtf outa here you muppetito!!!!!!
these guys are a mess, all the time drill duds
I note from the link on the RNS to the EPA Canje 12 well project Table 2 that the next 12 well drilling campaign starts on the 1st January 2022. From that, it would seem that they have a well already lined up to drill? When do you think it's likely that the next well will be announced?
Although the fails to date are not great, I thought below helps to put in context our experience, and why Exxon with the data is pushing on.
Thought this was useful with regards to success rate for drilling, provided by a chap from Royal Holloway
Conventional oil&gas:
It will depend on how well known (in geological terms) is the area where you are drilling. A well known area is where you know what is the source rock that originated hydrocarbons, how it got mature (cooked) and generated those hydrocarbons, how those hydrocarbons migrated up to a reservoir, how this reservoir is distributed across the area and how it gets trapped in order to form an hydrocarbon accumulation. All this knowledge is collectively called “Petroleum System”.
An unknown area (“frontier” in the jargon), where you are missing some of the “Petroleum System” components, is considered risky, so a 10–20% rate of success in exploration wells (wildcats) is reasonable.
As you move to better known areas, where you know most of the Petroleum System, then you move up to 30–50% rate of success for exploration wells.
If you are dealing with a pretty well known area, where there are many producing oilfields, then you can get up to 80–90% chance of success for exploration and development wells.
As exploration technology, like 3D seismic, has improved, exploration has become more successsful. For example Exxon’s rate of success offshore Guyana is pretty high for a formerly “frontier” basin, with only a few dry holes out of more than 16 oil discovery wells. Pretty good track record.
In the words of Mark Heap...... Shalom
Thanks. Surely one of those higher % locations will come in. I wonder what % the last three drills were.
As it stands the new cpr should be released by march, thats when exxon is obligated to inform rp about its next target and by the israeli regulations rp will have to release a cpr.
Could be sooner...
LOL. I stopped at Feb 21. Thanks Celtics. I will wade through with Google Translate.
I second that. Would love to have a read. I've had a quick scan over the last few Ratio Petroleum news releases, but I can't see anything that looks like a CPR. My Hebrew is obviously not up to scratch.
https://maya.tase.co.il/reports/details/1351460/2/0
English in 2nd half of PDF.
thanks, Celtics.
Hello, where can I find the 2nd cpr, I've have had a look around but can't find. Thanks in advance.
For me, the investment thesis for WTE is still visible, but we should not sway from the fact that the results so far have been below expectations.
This note only refers to Kaieteur and I will share a similar one for Canje.
Kaieteur thesis -
Tanager-1 yielded a 16M net oil pay discovery with 65.3MM Barrels (42.7MM Kaieteur + 22.6MM Off block).
The 2nd published CPR explicitly discloses that Kingfisher 6 and Kingfisher 8 prospects are "very close" to the Tanager discovery. The probability of geologic success at both of those two prospects has been increased to 57% (from 25% in 1st CPR) and targets the same Maastrichtian interval as Tanager.
Kingfisher 6 and Kingfisher 8 have a "best estimate" of 468MM Barrels. I would expect these prospects to be towards the top of the list for the next well candidate which will be named no later than 22nd March 2022.
Tanager + Kingfisher 6 + Kingfisher 8, could potentially form a 500MM+ Barrels combined development.
Tanager API is 20 degrees, which is heavier than Liza API of 32 degrees. So higher CAPEX would be needed to extract that oil and thus breakeven would be higher. For reference Payara which will develop 600MM Barrels has a $32 Brent breakeven.
The Hammerhead discovery contains "heavier" oil than the other Stabroek discoveries, but that it was still "very much commercial" quoting John Hess. According to Eco Atlantic CPR referring to Joe and Jethro - "The oil from these discoveries is reported by the operator to be similar to the ExxonMobil Hammerhead oil, in the 12 degrees to 15 degrees API range although a Final PVT analysis has not been provided by the operator at the time of this report." Tanager while Heavy oil appears to be Lighter than Hammerhead.
Elliot Management invested $30M into Cataleya, we are not told of the transaction economics - i.e. number of new Cataleya shares issued. However, on 30th August 2019, WTE purchased 313,500 common shares in Cataleya at a price of $10 USD/share. That could be a useful transaction to consider.
Post-Tanager, Hess have increased their stake from 15% to 20% in the block following a transaction with Cataleya. It's worth considering that Cataleya had an option to farm down 7.5% on the 2nd Kaieteur well in return for a carry by Exxon, and therefore this transaction with Hess must have better economics. More importantly, Hess with their knowledge of the Guyana basin view Kaieteur as very much attractive acreage.
Cataleya are well capitalized to fund their share of wells in the upcoming Kaieteur 12 well exploration drilling campaign.
Finally, from the WTE presentation, the Contractor share of revenue in the Kaieteur block is 50%, which is higher than that of Canje and Orinduik blocks, where the Contractor share of revenue is 40%.
Net Value per Kaieteur Barrel = [(Oil Price - Breakeven) x 50%] - [1% Royalty x Oil Price]
thanks,
Celtics.
The next well should be updated soon if they are to drill q1 and a cpr to follow.
Disappointing.
Both Exxon and WTE would have known this before releasing their results yesterday.
Doubly disappointing that we seem to learn the news from a local news agency website - that feels badly managed.
Anyway, on to the next one.
Pure conjecture, but what do JHI's shareholders do now - stick or twist? Three dusters despite all the knowledge about the geology and they must be feeling twitchy (I certainly am).
A couple of sentences from WTE's statement yesterday caught my eye - "in spite of the access challenges", meaning it's not easy to invest directly there, "subject to future drilling outcomes, there are likely to be some consolidation opportunities within the basin amongst the junior players, as exploration matures and in response to risk management demands of investor capital. For the moment Westmount remains the only US OTCQB and London AIM listed junior player offering exposure to drilling outcomes across 3 blocks offshore Guyana."
Not necessarily positive drilling outcomes?
Might JHI's owners want to start reallocating more of their capital and flog some or all of it to the market, through an RTO with WTE. They have already done a share swap.
Or ECO for that matter, or maybe WTE with ECO and spread some of that risk into Namibia also. Just thoughts..