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JPP I agree, Money is a idiot and needs to stop posting he's bias views, he's deep underwater here and needs to get people to buy this dog.
Then someone like me comes along and scares him due to the fact im on the next level of research and data analysis.
Im not interested in proving my credibility to you or anyone else. Everyones here for the same reason, to make money - so on that note, I wish you good fortune with your trading.
I like to try and get a scope for sentiment and see what light others can shed before I make investment decisions.
But instead we have these two idiots just arguing amongst themselves over the internet. Get a life. TheMoneyShark you just sound ridiculous. Can't string a post together without swearing or personally insulting someone.. grow up!
It's a big old world out there... Why waste your time farting around on a message board on a Sunday afternoon?
Money I’m getting to the stage where I would appreciate it if you dint respond or comment on my posts.
I think it will be a lot more interesting for readers and keep the conversation flowing more if you stopped interrupting me.
Thanks in advance.
Money, while you was predicting £8 I was predicting £4 a few months ago, so I know who I would be listening to now.
I assume you are now guarding this board now Money?
Tell me about the increase in shorts, this is surely bad news?
Have been increased also at these prices, just shows what the big institutions are thinking going forward.
How low do people think this will now go? I predicted £4 area a few months ago, after looking at costs the Rolex situation plus cost of living, but now £3-3.50? could be likely.
Must go, so I take my gorgeous wife out and have some drinks.
Enjoy whatever you have planned and be careful you don’t get hand blisters!
This one is worth a read
https://www.watchpro.com/rolex-prioritising-steel-watch-production-prompts-watches-of-switzerland-profit-warning/
The share now has low P/E figure of around 9.5 based on new FY24 predictions, with revenue basically static yoy after the change in H2 guidance and earnings around 24-25% down on FY23.
Of course it is a business which relies on the sale of one main category of product with luxury watches equating to 88% of revenue and it is looking at constantly opening new selling space in order to further increase revenue.
You also have fewer tourists coming into Europe from the likes of China and Japan right now and they tend to buy luxury in Paris,London, etc , fewer Chinese and they are spending far less than before COVID
Shorters like Marshall Wace tend to know the retail area quite well and have a lot of experience shorting in it, so they obviously worth watching and Cube short using algorithms to help them with their predictions
The NAV is £515.8m on the books and you are paying £923.78m MCAP @ 385.6p a share , so you are paying for the earnings by buying above the NAV
All a bet on the consumer behaviour, watch market and whether earnings can bounce back ....with more retail space they win big in a revenue boom but get hit hard in more of a revenue drought
I suspect if you went to Switzerland they were talking about it
Ferrari
I dont see Rolex wanting to expand its retail footprint by buying WOSG and I dont hink many people would expect them to do so. Drops in share prices don't suddenly mean they are "ripe for a takeover" as WOSG hardly need to sell their business right now to some opportunist buyer
I think within the watch world there has been talk about what would happen to Bucherer and there has been interest shown in it and I suspect if you went to S
If I were Rolex I would make a bid for the 200 Wosg stores the current share price is ripe for a takeover target
After purchasing Wosg I would then stop supplying the smaller dealers with the desirable models or better still don’t renew their contracts or if possible end their contracts
Then I would own all Bucherer and Wosg stores
I would then have 300 retail units of which I would sell the ones that duplicated in the same geographical area
Remember the surprise purchase of Bucherer shook the watch world nobody saw it coming
I think you have to add in the fact that the Market is punishing the BOD here because
They gave out all this blah,blah,blah about their expectations by 2028 about doubling revenue and profit out to FY28 and all those ambitious plans including possible M&A, back in November
...but then showed they couldn't even get a guidance forecast right for what might occur in the short term despite what was clearly going on in the world around them
so, I suspect the likes of Blackrock and the Investment bankers have given them a bit of kicking and told them to keep their feet firmly on the ground and stay focused on the here and now ... the share price kicking from Blackrock usually is no bad thing mid term if indeed the BOD take note and do as Blackrock undoubtedly has suggested to them . Blackrock lending out shares to shorters despite having a Long position.
The BOD have of course decided to keep their guidance heads down and retreat with a much more conservative
" We now expect these challenging conditions to remain for the balance of our fiscal year."
If Bucherer with around 100 stores is worth over £4bn (that's what Rolex have reportedly paid for them)
It was a private sale so yes speculation on a sale price, as you will not find the agreed price in either the Rolex press release or the media reporting the sale
" Jean-Philippe Bertschy, an analyst with Vontobel Holding AG, put annual sales at Bucherer’s more than 100 stores at about 2 billion Swiss francs ($2.3 billion), giving the firm an enterprise value of as much as 4 billion Swiss francs. He estimated Bucherer accounts for about 5% of Rolex’s sales."
An EV of " as much as " 4b Swiss francs = £3.63 billion
The sale included the stores, the house brand Bucherer watches and of course the name and reputation
https://fortune.com/europe/2023/08/26/rolex-to-buy-bucherer-in-deal-resetting-luxury-watch-business/
This blog incidentally is very detailed in terms of the sale and what/why etc regarding what it means to Rolex
https://www.ablogtowatch.com/rolex-buys-swiss-bucherer-watch-retailer-group-what-now/
I'm m not arguing mate I'm just talking to you.
If Bucherer with around 100 stores is worth over £4bn (that's what Rolex have reportedly paid for them) then its stands to reason that WOSG with over 200 stores is worth more than the mcap of £1.4bn.
With that I'll bid you goodnight.
Good luck all
Bells started to ring for me, the Rolex problem.
I then looked at store costs and cost of living problems and I concluded this was now trading in a bumble.
I'm not going to argue with two of you at once, I'm in this dog too right now so there is that. As for the long term decline, we'll have to see how that plays out.
We've all been on the wrong side of trades so I'm not rubbing salt in the wounds by saying the company is f*cked. There is just a market perception that one day it might be, as much as you wish there wasn't. tms as judging by some of your posts on this board you've been a bit triggered by all this so I'm going easy here.
404x
Rolex haven't gone it alone they bought Bucherer for a reported chf5bn!!! That's over £4bn for around 100 stores. By that reckoning that gives WOSG a value of around £8bn if they wanted to buy them!
@tms see any of the Swatch Group brands, Rolex via Bucherer etc, if anything WOSG are the odd one out because most luxury companies sell direct.
Still it's an unfortunate situation for WOSG to be in because even Rolex made every promise to carry on supply and do so for many years, all that really matters is the market perception of that risk existing of Rolex fully going it alone. So there will always be a Rolex shaped sword of damocles hanging over the stock.
Don't get me wrong I'm not saying this is going back to £14 but £3.85 is way oversold.
IMHO
No stainless steel ones Fordy, but some gold ones available I believe.
If you can get me an entry level stainless steel Daytona at Michael Spiers for RRP then I'll happily give you a £5k finders fee. I love my watches so I have some knowledge on the subject. Wouldn't profess to be an expert but I know enough to say there's still a huge demand for Rolex. As long as WOSG have a distribution agreement in place with Rolex this is massively oversold. At this SP WOSG is a takeover target.
You asked and that's my opinion.
404x
Rolex, Omega and the like don't have a direct consumer sales channel they use retailers. In the UK WOSG front both Omega and Rolex stores. We've recently had a massive Omega store open here in Liverpool One shopping centre. It's owned and run by WOSG
Yes, that’s my point. They are completely and utterly dependent upon third parties and, like you say, their model seems old hat (mix of brands) and arguably weakens the exclusivity of the big brands. Good luck with your trade.