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Very cheap producer ? Maybe worth a punt , anyone agree?
I think this needs to bounce a long long way just to get most of us out of the ****e!!!
Coming?.
funding sorted... could bounce...?
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
17-Aug-18 16:15:24 2.10 25,000 Buy* 1.70 2.20 525.00 O
17-Aug-18 15:42:43 2.10 13,000 Buy* 1.70 2.20 273.00 O
17-Aug-18 11:33:08 2.00 50,000 Buy* 1.70 2.00 1,000.00 O
17-Aug-18 11:31:21 2.00 11,792 Buy* 1.70 2.00 235.84 O
17-Aug-18 10:25:12 2.00 4,000 Buy* 1.70 2.00 80.00 O
17-Aug-18 08:33:25 1.81 40,000 Sell* 1.70 2.00 724.00 O
17-Aug-18 08:31:18 2.00 24,500 Buy* 1.70 2.00 490.00 O
17-Aug-18 08:11:58 2.00 200,000 Buy* 1.60 2.00 4,000 O
@richam - I'm not going to debate/argue with you. Neither am I going to share 95% of what I know, but I guarantee you I know a lot more than you do........ keep watching - or if you prefer -sell up bug out and stop whinging,
Ophidian
Ophidian,
some postings make me believe their respective posters look at this operation from an industry perspective rather than an investment perspective. "Keep watching" is what shareholders are doing for years already. It's always the next few months that are supposted to bring a breakthrough but it never happened. The consequence is we're losing money all the time. Almost 3 years after handover the plant's output is barely 50% of what it is supposed to be and Wolf keep amassing losses. The debt load is TWICE of what it is supposed to be already. Not much of a breakthrough from my point of view! From Wolf's latest press release it is very clear: TIME IS RUNNING OUT! There won't be a 4th year to mess around with the plant. Once the debt is being "restructured" shareholders are likely to be ousted and their losses to be made permanent. I think it is time to come to an agreement with regard to what we define as a "success".
Assuming the operation could become operational cash flow positive and continue as a going concern after existing shareholders have been given the boot, would you deem this a success?
Orphidian ....it’s refreshing to read the comments of somebody who really knows what he’s talking about ! Keep it up mate.
Thanks for the informative post. It is so very good to read a post, from yourself and others, that is not abusive and makes sense. Previously there was some very silly and off putting stuff. I am currently invested elsewhere (Wres - with relevant specific designed equipment) and tungsten involved. However, this now becomes something to keep an eye on for the future.
Agree with Ophidian,
Ongoing issue is plant reliability related. There's also obviously the issue with the current crusher config. A document search of historical mine records from previous operations would have revealed the wear and recovery issues experienced in the past. Total deja vue.
Geology team have worked hard over the past 4 years and, and despite the orebody being more complex than was initially modeled, the mining and geology aren't the real issue. Also the Iron contamination appears to be diminishing with depth and is no longer a significant issue which is good news.
When the geos read this, their egos are going to...... Orphidian ;-)
Keep watching……………..
Ophidian
Re the comments made by DEvonwolf and Ophidian. The Wolf geologists may well have been brilliant but it is not a geological problem it is a mineral processing problem . The mistake I made in making my investment was I knew about the fines problem at Hemerdon and incorrectly assumed it would become common knowledge to any serious mining company. Again incorrectly I assumed that nobody would invest £150 M without having cracked it. What a fool I was. Wolf management have a lot to answer for ...but dont blame their geologists.
I would like to think OPhidian that you right and that there is hope and the tide will turn ....but sadly I think they have the wrong equipment and even if it was built to German standards instead of the poor quality it appears to be it would make no difference. It is the wrong equipment
Guys - the Wolf Geology Team are first class. The GRES Design however was anything but. In more than one recent post the term "since commissioning" has been used. When was this ? the Plant NEVER passed commissioning in full. One of the first things the current Executive team did was abandon the nonsense of persisting with a flawed design, binned off GRES and started making decisions to get the most out of what they have.
Nameplate capacity as everyone is so keen to keep talking about is interesting but it is a significant product of several important factors - Quality and Quantity of input material, Efficiency of the Separation, Concentration of the concentrate produced. Each of these factors are being targeted and improved through various strategies in play. The ore sorter discussed before is just one part of this multi pronged approach.
I know many investors have lost money here and I have no words to try and assuage the anger and frustration that those investors must feel but I can say that I see a positive way forward emerging now and with just a little more patience I would expect to see the tide turn. I have recently invested some of my BMN profits in here as I see the growth opportunity as favourable.
Peakview - is it possible that you are the private investor that Russell Clarke might have referred to as "The Professor" ?
Ophidian
Appreciate you opinions on my question re production gentlemen, and good to have Peakview offering some thoughts again after such a long absence.
Mikea1boy thanks for your critical point about the make up of the ore body, surely the Wolf Geology team, after all the bore holes and trial pitting work that was undertaken on the site must have known the make up that you have advised, or do you think that is too simplistic? The data was issued to GRES who designed and installed a plant capable of producing a 5.5 working day nameplate of circa 3650 tonnes pa. (Subsequently increased to 7 day working), if they were competent professionals they must also have known the issues? Was it possible that both parties genuinely missed this fundemental data, or did they choose to proceed with the design of the plant and accept the risk of reduced recoveries?
As Peakview says the Chinese kit was sub-standard, but it is more realistic to say that in the light of the make up of the ore body you describe as possibly unique, that there is no plant currently in existance that would deal with the nature of the particles. Is it your opinion the current plant may never achieve the design production levels, and an individually designed plant for needs of the Drakelands orebody is required before 'Nameplate ' production can be reached?
Peak, Richam,
Agree totally with both of your comments below.
No doubt, all this has contributed to the misery. However, it has been ironed out and corrected and still the plant doesn't perform. The pivotal problem IMO is the fundamental misconception of the plant. 3 years after handover and with additional investments of around GBP 70M since production start, it barely produces half of what it was inteded to produce 6-12 months after commissioning.
If planned output was achieved Wolf would be making money. Due to the devaluation of the British Pound Wolf should even be making LOTS of money right now. That, however, is just theory. The reality is shareholders (other than RCF) will most likely be ousted and incur hefty losses. Hindsight is 20/20 but from an investor's point of view it is clear: The first new metal mine in the UK for half a century is a full-blown debacle and should not have been built in the first place.
It gives me no pleasure to see how disastrous the slide in SP has been under this board and management, having invested a shedload of money and research time in the Russell Clark era. I held on-site meetings and produced numerous reports on progress and problems up to early last year, when I finally accepted defeat and threw in a £120k towel. Most of the trouble can be sourced back to the original and expensive purchase of faulty Chinese processing machinery, compounded by early production problems with soft surface ore. There were a number of subsequent managerial mistakes, and the growing debt burden allied with low prices of tungsten for a long period rather finished much hope of recovery in my view. Perhaps the selfishness of the local nimbys will win the day if the operation is forced to close down - but it is a very sad situation for what was once a very promising revival of the mining industry in South Devon. GLA investors who remain here!
Sadly my losses are even greater but an investment in Sirius Minerals at the same time has more than compensated
The problem is very simple and has been known about since time began. The muscovite mica and kaolinite minerals found in this deposit have a layer lattice structure down to atomic size. They can be broken down by mechanical energy to infinitely small particles . Here I guess they could make up to 35% of the orebody in the kaolinised material and falling considerably in the hard granite where only the mica will be present.
One of the inherent problems in processing of wolframite ore bodies is sliming whereby the wolframite ore can be broken down in conventional processing because of its crystal structure into infinitely small particles. Hey hoe we have a problem ..possibly unique to this body...in which 3 of the constituent minerals can be broken down during this conventional treatment into very very small particles. No wonder recoveries are so low.
It cannot be beyond the mineral processing industries research bodies to come up with a new idea. How about this for starters ? For over 50 years the kaolin business in the USA has been separating sub micron impurities from kaolin deposits using froth flotation techniques. Perhaps similar ideas could be used to split the wolfram from the kaolin and the mica ???
Thanks as ever DevonWolf, breaks my heart to read this - though I now consider my bounce out on stop losses as possibly bacon saved - about 85k on the downside - c'est la vie.
To me it seems like a slow motion train wreck watching the SP slide and I threw the prayer mat out over a year ago.
Thanks also to all you guys supplying pertinent info, if it all ends tits up then maybe you should all get together and do the company autopsy - a salutary lesson in running a mining company.
Good luck to those still holding, I do wish you the best of luck - still.
WD43
Yes Richam just noticed that small shipment, do not think Wolf playing the 'extreme weather event' card will work this time, especially when your posted rainfall chart showed less rainfall in June than July LOL. Trust this is not a sign of tonnage of shipments to come, sheep and cattle may be dying in Oz but production may be dying at Drakelands!. The share action today has seen it hovering around 2p with sell price below 2p for the first time, not good - is the market telling us something?.
Thanks to Southwesterner, Blitz01 and Ophidian for posting recent technical information on the processing side, it improves the knowledge of what actually has to be done to get the product out of the rock, and what is being done at the mine currently.
My biggest question is why after 3 years of production, the output is still only around 50% of the capacity the plant was designed for, when the 'soft' material which caused initial problems has now been worked through and replaced by 'coarser' material the plant was supposed to work best on?
Would be grateful to hear you guys views on the matter....
100% drought in NSW currently. Sheep and cattle are dying.
why do you say that ?
Possibly. Thank the Lord the mine isn't in NSW.