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It seems that they have enough gas to meet the demand, so no need to unlock more before needed ? The gas market outside local demand and pipeline is non-existing for the time being. The field is said to be huge enough for decades to come. If and when LNG plant is built then we have a different situation and wen will need to drill a lot more. This is my understanding.
BR
Exactly you’re finally getting there.
So 1P is the robust case ( although CPRs are usually over optimistic) for the full field development estimated at 240 bcf back in 2020. So only 6 years P at 101 mmscf/d. So even if they wake up and start drilling the required additional development wells now this still hits the 1P limit in 2026 or 27. It’s most certainly not ‘ infinite’.
I’ll hold on and see what the plans are for drilling.
You're welcome Damofarl. Quite funny that for some people here I'm too negative in my comments while for others I'm pulling the wool on things... But good to see that some people simply find it useful! :-)
But reading back my own post, I see that I made a small mistake unfortunately. WEN uses three reserves categories within the 1P estimate: PDP (proved developed producing), PD (proved developed not producing, aka PDNP) and PUD (proved undeveloped). the volumes behind the SSD's fall in the PDNP category it seems. On page 65 of the CPR (link below) you see what work is needed to unlock the PUD volume: primarly connect the lower Mnazi Bay sand in MB-2 to the well (additional perforations).
Overall the conclusion is the same though: the 240 BCF 1P estimate seems robust.
By the way: The annual update of the CPR should be published next month (February) so it will be interesting to see how the wells perform. Last year the 1P volumes dropped more than the annual production in the year before (-48.3 BCF vs 23.9 BCF production). On the other hand the subcategory PDP+PD showed a sharp increase (+63.4 BCF) which clearly shows that some sands were brough online.
https://wp-wentworth-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/03/10165249/Mnazi_Bay_Resource_Evaluation_WW_Final_Jan21_2021_s-002.pdf
mick2020; thanks for that; for those of us who aren't geologists that was a simple succinct explanation. Really helpful.
Geowiz,
You are wrong, yet again. If you don't understand the difference between the PDP volumes and the 1P volumes, why do you not simply ask? Instead, you come up with some very bold, untrue, statements and pretend that you are an expert. In fact, reading your comments with other LSE companies, you seem to do that everywhere, so were you in fact ever a WEN shareholder? I doubt it. Glad that you sold out!
But I'll answer your question for one final time (i.e. what is the difference between PDP and 1P volumes)
The Mnazi Bay wells are completed with selective completions: dual string in MB-1 with SSD's (sliding side doors), smart single completions with SSD's in MB-2, MB-3, MB-4 and MS-1X. It means that you produce only from certain zones, while keeping other zones closed. (commingled production is not always possible). If you look at the production history you see that they have switched between zones in the past. To come back to the volumes: the PDP volumes are the volumes in sands that are currently flowing. Close an SSD, and the volumes in that zone move from PDP to proven undeveloped. Given the long history of the field, with annual pressure surveys and flowtests of the separate sands, I see no reason to doubt the P1 volumes: so 240 BCF as a minumum, which at the current rate of 80 MMscf is 8 years of production.
The only difference between the 2P and 1P volumes is that the volumes produced beyond 2031 (the licence expiry date) have been included in the 2P reserves, not in the 1P case. See page 68 of the CPR. So to repeat this for the 5th time or so: NO, no further drilling is needed for the 2P case.
This really is my final comment on this issue, and I won't reply to any further comment from you, so don't bother.
Good luck with your other investments
Mick 2P reserves need more drilling and work, all that is accessible with present do no more drilling is 100 bcf as of end 2020 so at present rate of production this all dies later next year. That’s what the report is saying. So I’m out. Good look pulling the wool but this will go into decline very soon and when it does the SP will tank.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/eu-drafts-plan-label-gas-nuclear-investments-green-2022-01-01/
Mnazi Bay gas should qualify for these demands. Might be more interesting for professional investors with a ESG focus?
Jan 1 (Reuters) - The European Union has drawn up plans to label some natural gas and nuclear energy projects as "green"
investments after a year-long battle between governments over which investments are truly climate-friendly.
The European Commission is expected to propose rules in January deciding whether gas and nuclear projects will be included in the EU "sustainable finance taxonomy".
This is a list of economic activities and the environmental criteria they must meet to be labelled as green investments.
By restricting the "green" label to truly climate-friendly projects, the system aims to make those investments more attractive to private capital, and stop "greenwashing", where companies or investors overstate their eco-friendly credentials.
Brussels has also made moves to apply the system to some EU funding, meaning the rules could decide which projects are eligible for certain public finance.
A draft of the Commission's proposal, seen by Reuters, would label nuclear power plant investments as green if the project has a plan, funds and a site to safely dispose of radioactive waste. To be deemed green, new nuclear plants must receive construction permits before 2045.
Investments in natural gas power plants would also be deemed green if they produce emissions below 270g of CO2 equivalent per kilowatt hour (kWh), replace a more polluting fossil fuel plant, receive a construction permit by Dec. 31 2030 and plan to switch to low-carbon gases by the end of 2035.
Wrong again Geo. For various reasons even: you now ignore the undeveloped reserves (you clearly don’t understand this bit) and your understanding of 2P reserves is wrong as well. Have you heard of a normal distribution? In fact, do you know anything at all about reserves estimation and accounting?
Sell your shares and move on. I’m tired of this discussion.
Thanks for the clarification on resources Mick.
So 100 bcf PD ( Proven developed reserves) as of end 2020
100 mmscf / d means they are drawing 37 bcf a year so they will run out completely by Q3 next year unless they spend on new wells? This was my point.
Forget the 2P number there only a 50:50 chance they’ll reach that even if they drill baby drill .
They need to invest in future production asap.
Being a shareholder in Wen should be quite safe.
The sale prise is only about 22p and thereby the stock is very undervalued. The ROI last year has been + 22 % and in addition it has given a dividend of almost 10 %.
According to one investment analysis the SP is 78 % below fair price. Fair value according to this analysis is 89p.
Net profit margin is about 25 % higher this year than previous 3 years. Next year net profits probably will increase more.
Wen is outperforming industry average regarding to PE ratio - Its P/E ratio is 9,9 compared to 13.3 for industry average and compared to the market in general of 19.6
Wen is doing great regarding P/B ratio . P/B of Wen is 0.5 compared to Gas and Oil industry of 0,9.
I see now that the RNS for FIL Invest is just formalities due to cancel of 8,5 million shares. Good.
Mick
What is evil and vicious? IMO to attack me and posting several times in a chat room indicating I am mentally ill, is an evil and vicious action.
You have no idea who I am or what I am.
I think your comment would be fair, if you stated your opinion about the management once or twice a year. You attack Kathrine Roe with libellous and defamational, content in almost every post you do. Then the activities you do, cross the line from being expressing your opinion to being vicious and evil actions. IMO.
By the way,
Keep your facts straight. Katrine Roe have been the leader for only 2 years. She inherited a situation and have tried her best for the company. Maybe she has not answered all your frustrating emails, but I think you should give her some credit.
She has made a better and understandable web site, she has according to Tim done a lot of great thing both in the cooperation with M&P and in cultivating a good relationship with the government;
According to Tim Wen is not really a non-operating company like you state . - due to the close cooperation with M&P, they are more like semi - operating company.
Kathrine has made it more attractive for investors to invest in ESG focused companies - even it was a bit late because the ESG hype is partly over. .
I have spoken with both the former manager Eskil, (who for some stupid reasons seem sto be more popular then kathrine) My impression about Kathrine is that she is a strong very skilled woman with a strong backbone. A person I talked to who had been working with Kathrine earlier, , confirmed to me in a conversation this - that Kathrine is very skilled and clear and had been extremely valuable in their co-opeeration,
Eskil on the other hand I talked to once, and I became very disappointed. He seemed to me to be a kind of weak person with no backbone. Maybe he is clever in his trade, but he was a disaster for the SP of Wen. And as far as I know, he has never had any success-rate to talk about. Ever. May be he was more popular because he spent a lot of his time answering your emails? I dont know.
karhrine has been manager for a bit over 2 years. When she took the leadership the SP was about 17,25. Not 85 p like you indicate: And SP today is not 20 P it is closer to 22. So stop lying Mick.
What do you expect to be the result of your everlasting attack the Wen company stating them to have be poor management? You cannot change that if it would be true. I know one thing, your activities make me want to sell my shares. And Kathrine is a human being - a woman - why is it so important for you to do everything you can in order to destroy her reputation. Even with lies. You act like ai a bitter pathetic loser and you are by your actions a traitor to the other shareholders. IMO
Astrol,
My comments are not "evil and vicious". They are realistic and fair, and you can only blame the poor management of this company for the continuing share price decline, from 86p in March 2021 to the 20 p that we have today. The main thing that management has produced the last few years is a massive value destruction in terms on NPV, with a huge write off in Mozambique and a continuing focus on self reward, neglecting shareholder value. The dereliction of duty of the entire board regarding their fiduciary responsibilities has essentially led to failure of the company.
I think that you are an amazingly naieve investor if you can't see this. With a lot of hyping up and a lot of luck you might be able to reach a price of 40p perhaps. On the other hand, if the company accepts their non-operating role, reduces costs and focusses on share-holder returns, then 1 pound should be achievable. In the end Mnazi Bay is a great asset, and that is the only reason why I am a shareholder.
FIL Invest crosses 10%. Is ut simply out og oil and gas, or do they know stuff we don't?
Mick I will never comment your posts if you stop your evil, vicious attack and complainings on Kathrine Roe and the Wen company.
In my perspective you are obsessed with bitterness and I find your repetitive negative comments to be utterly ridiculous.
Astrol,
Can you actually write a single message here without mentioning me or repeating your dross about “investors from hell”? You are obsessed and your repetitive comments are utterly ridiculous. If you want to hype-up this company just go head. Problem is, there is little to hype up, as the company just doesn’t do anything.
Maybe make some friends here and start a round of prayers for another draught in Tanzania next year, or the completion of the Kinyerezi extension. At least nobody will complain then about WEN’s excessive spending and pretending to be an operator.
Hi Wilbur
A friend og mine considered to buy Wen shares. I adviced him not to for 2 reasons.
1st - because there i so much negative sentiments among some bitter shareholders constantly harassing Kathrine and the board of directors in public fora. (names not mentioned)
2nd because the share is quite Illiquid. The 2nd reason I think is related to some traitor Wen investors like Micks constant vendetta against the board of directors and Kathrine.
IMO the SP would increase if people like Mick stopped their harassment and complaining.
In Norway we recently had a very exciting final in Handball final for women. The Norwegian team was under with 6 goals just before half time. Everyone of the Norwegian players seemed to be very frustrated and the french team played a lot better. Suddenly Norway scored 2 and then they scored 4 more. It was like a total transformation happened. Now the Norwegian team got self confidence and started to believe in winning. And finally they won by 7 goals. How could this happen? The reporters asked this question over and over again.
A scientist in an article recently gave the answer. He had done a lot of research about this subject. His thesis is that when in a team there is entusiasme, joy, positivism and like the performers «play», they perform much better, Opposite when there in a team is complaining , (like the french teamleder started to do) and frustration reigns , a team (and individuals) will perform much worse than their potential.
So I think we should at least stop all the negativity, harassment and complaining. if so I think I think the SP of Wen would come much closer to 30 p quite soon.
There is several very interesting prospects at Mnazi Bay, with gross un-risked Pmean GIIP ~1.5 Tcf.
However, no further exploration will be done before a new PSA for ten more years is signed with the government. WEN holds a 39.925 per cent exploration interest.
More about interesting prospects at Mnazi Bay:
https://wp-wentworth-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2020/11/19100618/2019-10-03-TZOG-final.pdf
Personally, I look at the business rather than take notice of the noise.
I'm not invested yet as still doing DD and more research.
So far Wentworth looks pretty sound and very much under the radar !
The fact that AXA has sold out with little significant impact on the sp speaks volumes !
Yes, this may have forced the BOD into a share buy back to stabilise the sp.....but sentiment is still strong or the sp would have imploded regardless.
This share has a very positive steady as she goes feel. My main concern is the lack of exploration planning at this present time.
Toadhall
I think you are right, I once tried to applaud Kathrine for the attempt to present Wen as an ESG focused company, but Mick as a reply to my post attacked the management in a libellous way and also attacked me personally. ;-D . I can take it to be a chopping block for these people Mick and Alph who act like they are the enemies of other wen shareholders. I feel sorry for them and their loss, but they dont need to be so constant negative. But at least it is better they attack me than using all their energy to state something negative about Kathrine and the board of directors.
AXA is gradually withdrawing from fossil fuel investments , similar to other European insurers. Not cool to be investing in fossil fuels even though gas is desperately needed as a transition fuel ( globally), and for developing nations provides cheap reliable electricity to try and reduce the energy poverty of citizens. Not a worthy cause apparently.
This divestment is very real and of course a big driver why O&G stocks, particularly small caps are incredibly undervalued at present. The market will catch up.
I think you mix it up a little bit, Bjørn. This is not the Arsenal og LIverpool supporters chat forum..
Investors from hell? Well, To speak for my self, I have been owner of Wenworth since november 2014. The SP back then (in todays currency rate) was 42 pence. Please explain carefully if I am to blaim why the SP today is half of it.
You have been an owner since 2018, and I don't have to tell more about the stupid reason you got into it. Every Norwegian WEN-owner, and so do Mick.
Hi Wilbur
To be serious, I think many institutional investors usually have a politic to be quite shortsighted in their investment strategy. They seldom invest for many years. If an investment has not payed off within a reasonable time, they go on and find another investment object. Some institutional investor I know of, has a strategy to sell their investments after 3 years even when the investment has been successful.
Apart from that my opinion is Wen is absolutely undervalued. The share price should have been at least about 30 p. The question is why not? It is not because the company is improving constantly. The results are better, the outlook and future brighter. It is more solid and gives a pretty good dividend compared to similar companies. Even Malcy is very positive to the share.
I would say some people act like they are investors from hell. This is a public forum where I suppose some potential investors and Wen shareholders read what is written. It is not very tempting I suppose to invest or own shares n a company where some shareholders constantly iare complaining about the company and its leadership, How many hundred complaining posts containing libellous content to the board of directors an Kathrine Roe has Mick posted?
To be straight I dont understand their motives. I know some of the norwegian investors failed in an attempt to kíck out the board of directors. Leader for this failure was a guy called Mikkel Jensen. He seems to have the exact same agenda and postings as Mick2000 but in the Norwegian chat room . My personal opinion if I may say so, I think these people are like traitors to the other shareholders, They only produce unnessesary noice.
Ha ha ha, let me guess.... did Astrol start that rumour?
Rumours saus AXA pulled out because of Micks negative approach om this board.