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Every day after market close they release RNS about buying own shares! But what's the use if its not helping share price?
Looks like Goldman Sachs selling shares rather than buying back!
"Every day after market close they release RNS about buying own shares! But what's the use if its not helping share price?"
Every cloud has a silver lining; In this particular case Vodafone are buying back stock, at rock bottom prices, preventing dilution due to the MCB's. Ironically the low share price is lowering the cost of buying back debt.
' Ironically the low share price is lowering the cost of buying back debt.'
Also, not mentioned much on the BB, the market value of debt (or its net present value) must be dropping as interest rates rise and with inflation. Isnt that whats happening in the Bond market?
Isnt it more accurate to use c€30Bn debt net present value if you were to pay it all off early?
Motly fool, doing their best deramping effort with about 3 click bait articles a day.
Android 'Isnt it more accurate to use c€30Bn debt'
Good point. VOD just tendered $2.3Bn cash offer for its $3Bn 4.375% NOTES DUE MAY 2028. That should push the average maturity of debt out beyond 11 years and the service cost after 2030 is less than 2%.
'VOD just tendered $2.3Bn cash offer for its $3Bn 4.375% NOTES DUE MAY 2028. That should push the average maturity of debt out beyond 11 years and the service cost after 2030 is less than 2%.'
Return on Investment ROI is increasing. Its the slow pace of deal execution causing the negative sentiment and the media dogma. RNS anytime for another spike I guess.
I like Olaf Swantee for new CEO
Android,
I would rather the leadership spend ample time to evaluate deals instead of jumping into anything just because a hedgefund manager is eager to make a fast return to the detriment of the company.
As outsiders we lack complete context of the real motives behind these initiatives. Vod should sit tight on strategic assets; Vodacom, Germany, Italy, NL and UK. Vantage part ownership benefits the company medium to long term, otherwise they will have to lease without the rights to share the profits.
'As outsiders we lack complete context of the real motives behind these initiatives'
Can only do our own research. Media articles are useful but their veracity often questionable and in whose interest is their market narrative in a bear market? Thus it was always so.
I was interested to read recently that there is €80 trillion of 'Off Balance Sheet Debt' in the financial system (where is it?). With that as a backdrop, VOD assets and the cash they generate look solid. Shame about the hedgefunds and the SP but EIA looks good long term and Niel shaking things up to move things along imo
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/80-trillion-off-balance-sheet-debt-blind-spot-financial-system-2022-12
You can often make the research very simple , just by looking at what other investors are doing ....one of the key places is in the Options market ....if the Option traders by Calls they think the price will go up ,if they buy Puts they think the price will go down ....now they have Put bets so you dont really need to know much else ....the market is following their directional pull .... and watch how they close ...because they then have to buy shares to balance the Option
VOD has traded a lot over the last 2-3 years based purely on the Option market bets
Hat tip to pokerchips and compound for your recent posts below.
If somebody thinks otherwise, then please articulate, but my understand of all technical trading, including that of calls and puts, is that it drives price in the absence of news (the driver being a presumption of a shared understanding by those in the know, of where price will turn), whereas actionable news can change everything.
Pokerchips; do you think traders of calls and puts have access to info that we don't, or is it just a way to amplify hoped for gains, through margin?
I don't think so, I have a number of other stocks that have also announced buy backs. Look at GNC and they have gone down, look at DS Smith and they have gone up.
I thought VOD would also be going up but no luck. What it mostly shows is the market / company find a way of holding down the SP so the company can buy back more shares at a lower price. Now things might change once the company has bought back all they need , but it looks like we will have to wait to find out.
" Pokerchips; do you think traders of calls and puts have access to info that we don't,"
yes I do...but that is mostly because you may not want to pay for it , whereas they do.....they are using data that has to be paid for , which gives them a decent idea of what to expect in say the next quarter ....
No one can be on top of things without buying into data .....available on Bloomberg for example
If you dont want to buy the data ....the next best thing is possibly to just follow their Option contracts directional lead ... :-)
small fish follow the shark to the food source :-)
Poker, what do you see, statistically, that is not visible here? Your claim of the option market driving this doesn't seem to be supported based on this chart: https://www.alphaquery.com/stock/VOD/volatility-option-statistics/150-day/put-call-ratio-volume
Feel free to share other sources.
I look at the range of Options ..whether they are more near term or more long dated ....that gives you a better understanding of long a time period Options will stay for and how serious the traders see a problem (for Puts ) or clear skies for Calls ..... look at the US Options for VOD and the European Options too ....
look at 9th and 15th November put/call ratio peaks .... traders placing the Puts for the monthly December expire of the 17th (close 16th) ??.. will some close depending on what the FED says next week ??
Sure, but the ratio of the put/call option is what matters regardless of time frame. As an example, you load up on calls with shorter maturity and may or not load up on either calls/puts on a longer dated option. Regardless of these various combinations, the ratio will provide you with the insight.
If the stock is being weighed down by more puts, then it will be visible on the rate of change (derivative) of the put/call chart.
Also, the options markets is a great vehicle to deceive the actual intent.
The bottom line is to long or short a stock the way you see the company perform not what others do. FTX is the latest great example of it. All the "smart" money wanted in on it.
meshtrader
you do whatever fits you best .... and take anything and everything whatever way you perceive it to be ..like the media
do the DD necessary to make any decision
good luck
Dodgy - technical trading is all based around one thing - price action, and price action is determined by and is an expression of current sentiment. Fundamentals may play a part in the current sentiment, but not always.
Charts won't make an SP go in a certain direction - the current sentiment will. News always plays a major role in sentiment, although it's the reaction to the news that's drives the price. Charts are useful to provide a framework of where the price might go, once the direction is in place. They are a graphical representation of current price action and sentiment, and can give clues as to where sentiment may change to give you good entry and exit points.
Fundamental analysis is also very useful, but you can do the best, most detailed and accurate fundamental analysis of a share to determine what you think the fair value should be, but until the people buying and selling have done the same analysis and come to the same conclusion, then there's going to be a mis match between fair value and current price. Sometimes the two things even out and meet, but that can take years, and if the fundamentals change then the share price may never get to your assessment of fair value.
I like to use a combination of both as it can be very dangerous to get too closely fixated on one in isolation.
I personally dont think the City and Wall Street care about " fair value" ...I dont think they really see it as existing on a day to day basis at least with the Investment Banker Traders .....it seems to me just something sold to Retail as being somehow important
meshtrader
yes too true ..look at who was fooled by the likes of Sam Bankman-Fried and Elizabeth Holmes ...something that seemed so good they were blinded by the possible flaws ...
Agreed Poker - especially at the moment in the US. Wild and dramatic swings based purely on sentiment. Look the massive rally we had in July/August - all because the markets latched on to and misinterpreted one thing Powell said.
Next week is going to be fun. US inflation figures, BOE and Fed meeting. Markets currently look poised for another big move, but impossible to say in which direction, if you knew the data in advance. It will all be down to interpretation and sentiment and will probably result in a move which goes way above or below what fundamentals indicate current prices should be.
S&P in particular is very interesting. On the daily chart it's been in an uptrend for 2 months and has bounced off the bottom support and moving towards the top of the channel it's been in. Pan out to the weekly chart though and you'll see it's still in a downtrend and is heading towards a line of resistance that it hit a couple of weeks ago again.
Charts are indicating a big move, but the direction will be dependent on the interpretation of all the news next week. I'm leaning towards towards a big santa sally that could last until early/mid Jan, but not going to bet the farm on it and will be ready if it swings the other way.
Compound
" I'm leaning towards towards a big santa rally that could last until early/mid Jan, "
I am not sure how big , but a relief rally in pre Christmas week looks ...possible ..but I agree ..a revisit to feet on the floor come January ....... The US needs more pain to get the inflation right down IMO
Lower volumes over Xmas /New Year will cause some volatility no doubt
next week..haha yes a week of FOMO or FOBI
....... one thing is for sure though Powell does NOT want a silly overdone market rally ..he will no doubt speak cautiously and say the job isn't done and they watch data and stay willing to act if necessarily
ALB
"I personally dont think the City and Wall Street care about " it seems to me just something sold to Retail as being somehow important"
Like Bitcoin?
Hi Pokerchips, where do you suggest looking for an Options Market overview for UK-listed companies. Thx