Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
sorry Gary, i like reading your posts at least i can understand what you are saying, just making a point though that Vodafone and telecoms is not the only industry getting affected by high inflation, we are in difficult times, and we just have to try and buy on the lows and hope things will get better
cheers mate
Well last time the bottom for Taylor wimpey was 3p and Barratt was about 25p (2008 - 2009) because I held both all the way down and all the way back up again.
Also in the mid nineties they went down a lot although I can't recall the price then but I remember reading the Times and thinking wow, they have come down a lot.
Gutter, that's right, but most of The articles I've been reading say now is a good time to buy shares, but be prepared to hold for a few years as nobody knows when the bottom is
Robleo - If house prices fall then the builders shares will also fall. Guaranteed.
Hi Gary, we are living in difficult times for sure, one thing i don't think anyone has the answer to is has that already been priced in with the already very low sp, same with the house builders you have invested in, with house prices predicted to drop 10-20 % next year that would wipe out the house builders' profits, again has it already been priced if anyone knows the answers to this, please tell me
cheers
Gary, yep energy costs are a problem. It could have been worse if VOD hadnt done something about it.
In H1 presentation they said this about Energy costs
• FY23 93% hedged (+€300m YoY)
• FY24 c.50% hedged at €207/MWh
• Further +€500m YoY @ spot prices
• Potential government intervention
• Renewable PPAs for structural price anchoring (>30% from FY25)
Wage inflation
• Low single digit payroll inflation in FY23, to further increase in FY24
Also, VOD is taking price action across European markets with CPI+ linked pricing
While VOD has flexible contracts & vulnerable customer protections in place, its really a bellweather for the problems to come across all buinesses not just VOD.
I still like the word 'Resilient' to describe performance.
I also like their statement 'Committed to min. 9c. dividend p.a.'
"Here’s a sobering read fellow Voders"
This article is just one of many presenting a negative narrative around Vodafone and BT. As I've pointed out previously, the current round of Capex isn't going to be forever; Once 5G and FTTP are completed, I don't see any massive infrastructure expenditure for decades.
Just to clarify a few points, 6G isn't a full infrastructure replacement for 5G, it's a complement to 5G and will utilise 5G frequencies, in most cases, to offer new 6G applications. 5G/6G, using EHF in the 30 to 300Ghz range, are severely affected by atmospherics and obstructions as the frequency increases, and will only be useful for very small distances with a clear line of sight, probably shopping centers, stadiums, possibly the high street with enough cell coverage.
LEO's like Starlink, are affected by same issues limiting 5G/6G transmission, as the Frequency rises up the SHF/EHF scale. LEO's will never be a replacement for terrestrial systems and will only be useful in providing service for rural, ship and Aircraft. LEO's won't replace everything else, as some of the hype implies.
The winners will be the providers who can provide the best FTTP, 5G and metro WiFi service coverage i.e., the ones with the largest scale.
By 2030, most of the infrastructure will be completed and Telecom company capex will drop massively. Since the market is supposed to be forward looking, I expect the narrative will change well before then.
Gary59 - Thanks for the information
Jed - daniel gets a bit grumpy but you get used to his lack of patience, hang on in here please this forum could do with an injection of new blood.
Here’s a sobering read fellow Voders …
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11472007/BT-Vodafone-hit-rising-costs-debt.html
Goodness danieth you do seem to have some strong views, now some might be right and some might be wrong but like many others who also have the right to post their views which might not always agree with yours.
But to post on here that all / many others are talking well crap , you just make yourself look like a complete pratt. Just let others post what they like and you can read it or just don't.
mrcautious. You say you would have never believed it about B.T, ? Nor would I, because according to my info it is complete nonsense. Come on you lot, please at least check bull****, before you agree with it. An answer would be good! Please you lot , stop posting fake info? It doesn't help.
vodger, You say it will come down to the strength of each C.E.O.'s regulatory strategy. Why then don't some (L.S.E. chat forum) vodafone shareholders support there C.E.O. & his strategy? I think it is time to realise, Nick Read knows a lot more than all you, vod, armchair experts, on this forum, put together. Any idiot can moan, But if you are not an idiot, you realise it is far more complicated? (far beyond some of you lot)? Just get real & grow up.
Hi soton, just had a look on Hargreaves weighted average 172 so still very high if that is correct
cheers
Hi Rob just curious has to what your average is now ? It's ok if you don't want to answer i'm at 127p happy to hang on for 140p....
Hi roofer, RE: recent buy it seems like a good buy at 91p but I'm not sure if it will turn out to be a good or bad decision
Vodafone has not been very kind to me as it kept dropping and dropping since i bought in here about 5 years ago, but there's nothing i can do about the past, i had the opportunity to add here for around £1 in the previous 2 years but didn't do so
each time it climbed back up to around 140, so had i done so and resold for 139 i would have reduced my losses here considerably, i won't be needing to take any money out of here anytime soon so if i have to wait a while it's not a problem, taking a bit of a gamble with this one hoping the dividends don't get reduced or stopped and just hoping it will bring some rewards, i will leave all the technical debt and merger analysing to the guys who are into all that stuff it's all double Dutch to me
cheers and best of luck to all vod investers
And finally as promised, a look at future earnings, which surprisingly look astonishingly bullish.
- First a recent-years recap:
And a quick overview of the top line Revenue from 2013 to 2022 reveals a moribund performance with the whole of that entire period remaining locked in the €40b’s, ranging from the bottom half of the 40’s up to the higher end of the 40’s.
And not in a linear fashion that would denote growth - but all over the shop from year to year.
Safe to say, it shows an ex-growth performance (so divi’s very important as the antidote) with annual revenue locked inside the decile that makes up the €40b’s range.
- - - -
Now Earnings:
Nasty but true, but the 10 years of results since 2013 to 2022, reveal 4 of those years with some very nasty losses. So no wonder the SP has had a tough time of things over the years.
Just recently 2019 closed with a whopping €8b Net Loss followed by 2020 and a more modest €0.9b loss.
2021 turned the tide with a small Net Profit of €0.1b
Followed-up by a very impressive 2022 performance close, of a massive €2b Net Profit!
(Although €2b+ Net profits and then some, have been seen in further back years).
And the future looks even better according to market estimates. This current trading year (2023) is/was penciled-in to produce a €2.9b Net Profit
I say ‘was’ because after H1 that is now more likely (TTM methodology) to turn in (a still whopping) only a €2.0b Net Profit!
Are the days of regular hiccups of producing the odd net loss over?
Because -
2024 is penciled-in to still be going for the €3b target to produce €2.9b Net Profit!
Both those years are each estimated to remain in the mid €40b’s as regards Revenue.
So despite Net Debt being a cause for concern in most quarters what’s being overlooked is that Net Profits estimates of €2b++ is now the new order of the day for the immediate future; and no waiting!
It’s on the cards. VOD has only to deliver it now. And better be no hanky panky before getting there!
That’s about it from me.
——————
Will try to keep my own counsel from now on, as an investment/trading tactic (although I carry some strong VOD trend direction views and potential SP danger areas) until the full-year results are published next year to see if any of the above/and Net Debt targets get bettered or come in worse.
In the meantime, I will take a bash at participating in Roofer’s pricing competition.
Page 43 is worth a look ie the increase in net debt from year end €41.6Bn to H1 €45.5Bn due to net collateral liabilities and timing differences.
In particular, FY22 €2.2Bn increases to H1 €7.6Bn.
The group accounting policy causing the timing difference says:
'The Group invests surplus cash positions across a portfolio of short-term investments to manage liquidity and credit risk whilst achieving suitable returns. Collateral arrangements on derivative financial instruments result in cash being paid/(held), repayable when the derivatives are settled. These assets do not meet the definition of cash and cash equivalents but are included in the Group’s net debt based on their liquidity.'
https://investors.vodafone.com/sites/vodafone-ir/files/2022-11/vodafone-h1-fy23-results-presentation.pdf
Looking at the H1 presentation:
The Increase in net debt at the half year is due to MCB buy-back, timing of dividend payments & FCF phasing
Free cash flow weighted to H2 reflecting the seasonality of working capital and €1.7bn spectrum payment in Italy already in net debt
Hello Robleo , hope you do well with recent Vod buy, alas iweb wont take buy order just under 90p on ex-div day , instead took a few at SDR , i see DLG still rising , not tempted yet for a early xmas box , you were spot on about incident on Fri and gave you a chuckle.. atb
Debt rating agencies and investment community use net debt as follows:
'Gross debt less cash and cash equivalents, short-term investments, derivative financial instruments excluding mark-to-market adjustments and net collateral assets.'
At 31 March 2022 €m
GROSS BORROWING(70,092)
Lease liabilities 12,539
Bank borrowings secured against Indian assets 1,382
Collateral liabilities 2,914
GROSS DEBT (53,257)
Collateral liabilities (2,914)
Cash and cash equivalents 7,496
Short-term investments 4,795
Collateral assets 698
Derivative financial instruments 2,954
Less mark-to-market (gains)/losses deferred in hedge reserves (1,350)
NET DEBT (41,578)
Hello Velo ..Ref : Iweb Indiscretion Incident
Many thanks, but to put it more simpler..
Dashing , Pub , Football
Would be a better analyse....atb
Hi Velo, not sure where you obtained your figures, but I notice you've added borrowings excluded from the reported Net Debt figure, like Lease Liabilities. I haven't checked all the figures, but:
FY20 reported Net Debt, adjusted for mark to market gains in hedging reserves, was reported as 42.168 billion with,
Lease liabilities 12.063 billion,
Bank borrowings secured against Indian assets 1.346 billion,
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total borrowings excluded from net debt 13.409 billion
(42.168 + 13.409) = 55.577 billion - 1.346 billion = 54.231 billion
It appears your FY20 figure omits the Bank borrowings secured against Indian assets of 1.346 billion.
BT seem to automatically add lease liabilities to Net Debt, whereas Vodafone report Net Debt with them excluded.
The sale of the Vantage stake may knock around 6 billion of the Net Debt by the end of FY23.
Velo - It's all smoke and mirrors in these reports you get from big companies. One minute you're comfortably invested in what seems like a great company and the next minute all hell is let loose.
“. . . However I have discovered maybe another reason for the hue and outcry and will post about that in my next post so as not to detract from the above. “
————————
I want to now mention the ANNUAL Net debt, for each year.
To date, the market has gone into panic mode over this year’s half-year H1 Net Debt.
Well, they should prepare themselves for a stroke when they get an eyeball of several years worth of full-year annual net debts. LOL!
Proof positive that the media is short-sighted, because if they’ve gone ape-shht over €45.5b then they have retained no memory of all the past years' average higher full years worth of Net Debt.
To recap these were the prior years' H1 Net Debts, but next to them I’ve now supplied the full-year Net Debt that each year accrued -
Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2020 = €48.1b
Net Debt for the full year ending 2020 = €54.2b
Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2021 = €43.8b
Net Debt for the full year ending 2021 = €52.7b
Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2022 = €44.2b
Net Debt for the full year ending 2022 = €54.6b
So you can see in each of the preceding 3 years, the average €45b half-year Net Debt ended each year, almost €8b or €9b higher than the H1 values.
That’s the average full-year - the lower mid-half 50’s of €53.8b
I draw your attention to this because I expect more panic at the full-year results next spring, so be ready to ask why they thought a yearly average of between €52b to €54b Net Debt was tolerated - but why not now?
Now all that was assuming that this current year was also going to come in with “similar” full-year Net Debt. However, it was my turn for a shock. According to the TTM method of estimates for the full-year Net Debt, I’m looking at a full-year Net Debt in the region of €60.8b!
Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2023 = €45.5b
Net Debt ‘forcast’ (TTM) Fullyear ending 2023 = €60.8b
I don’t have an answer for that except to say look at the fantastic earnings increase for the next 2 years that I will reveal in the next post. Could the expected huge increase in earnings be part of the defense as to why Net Debt may or may not hit €60b by this trading year’s end?
Finally to counter all that, take a look in my final post next, at the great increase in earnings estimates the market expects over the next 2 years > > >
Thanks so much. I knew going ex dividend would bring it down a bit. Next Friday however i haven't got a clue.