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On Nov 16th I posted comments referring to the net debt in the H1 trading update released that day.
I still had more to say but as it had gone midnight and I was far from home, I decided to leave it until I returned.
This is a bit late now, but here is the conclusion to my findings on Net Debt so it’s important the original post links to this conclusion.
Why?
Because every single review and criticism from media journos and the like, commenting on the Net Debt has utterly missed the continued similarity of Net Debt and yet all are in uproar at the “sudden” / “ballooning” of the Net Debt to €45b at H1.
And that’s a false and erroneous view to take because . . .
- NET DEBT IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS 3 YEARS OF H1 Net Debt amounts!
It’s not a new issue that’s only raised its head this year, why then so many panic-strewn reports and posts as if this has come flying out of the blue? It hasn’t. See for yourself:
Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2020 = €48.1b
Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2021 = €43.8b
Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2022 = €44.2b
Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2023 = €45.5b
The average for the 3 years prior (‘20 to ‘22) to the ‘23 H1 that was released last week is €45.3b
- So you can see the current year’s H1 is almost a perfect mean average making 4 years of H1's similarity.
It has not suddenly shot up out of control, it’s stayed almost exactly the same for a number of years now.
Where is the sudden “out-of-control ballooning” of Net Debt? And why are so many keen to make you think it is a brand-new problem?
It’s a fact that in a bull market, growth stocks are welcomed when they build up debt - but in a bear market, the market rotates out of debt-laden stocks and into value stocks. So I understand the angst.
But show me why it’s worse this H1 than the previous 3 years because it isn’t worse - it’s very, very, similar!
Net Debt doubled a couple of years ago at the time VOD bought Liberty Global’s towers in Germany & Europe et al. Think they paid about €21b which was added straight onto the Net Debt, effectively doubling it.
That was the time for the outcry! Far too late to ram it down investors' throats now as if it’s a helpful service to VOD investors.
However I have discovered maybe another reason for the hue and outcry and will post about that in my next post so as not to detract from the above.
It involves the full year Net Debts.
After that, a post on the fantastic, almost unbelievable, " sudden" :) :) huge earnings increase in market estimate forecasts that are due over the next 2 years > > >
' It'll be another headache for regulators to untangle the web of Tower ownership'
It will come down to the strength of each CEOS regulatory strategy and their own corporate strategies. Its possible VOD could retain control of Vantage and share in MBNL under some form of 'equivalence' principle like when Openreach was carved out but consolidates into the BT Group. Long term I thought the idea of 1 urban mobile network operator and 1 rural mobile network operator in the UK was a good solution to drawn out regulatory disputes between so many operators and referring matters to competition advisory tribunals etc. In the end, some form of remedy from winners to losers
For context, in respect of the Tower businesses:
https://mbnl.co.uk/about-us/
https://www.vantagetowers.com/sites/tower-co-v2/files/media/cornerstone-announcement.pdf
https://www.mobileeurope.co.uk/telefonica-and-liberty-global-looking-offload-50-of-uk-towerco/
"One thing I forgot to say about 3 is that they are heavily in sectors that VOD dont bother with such as area mobile data for smartmeters, smart bus stops, wireless telemetry for all sorts of wierd remote apps, in-car wireless data etc etc."
I'm still of the opinion that 3 and VOD are facing massive regulatory hurdles to merging, but should it be allowed I wonder what will happen to 3's 50% share in MBNL? The joint Tower company shared with EE.
Vodafone transferred their 50% share of Cornerstone to Vantage Towers last year, and it's now reported that Liberty/Telefonica (VMO2) are weighing up selling the other 50% of Cornerstone, but who to?
If Vodafone merge with 3, the new company will own a 50% stake in MBNL with the current Vodafone Towers 50% owned by Vantage, which Vodafone will hold a 49% stake in.
I think you can see where I'm going with this. It'll be another headache for regulators to untangle the web of Tower ownership, as mergers change the mobile landscape. Potentially Vantage could have a monopoly on UK Towers, so regulators may look at mergers, or sales of Tower assets, going forward and force divestment of certain Tower assets should mergers be allowed, alternatively they may say this is too complicated and block mergers.
Lesson Learnt
I was a " Dashing Dan " but failed on the...... Looks
Many thanks for team support
Iweb now showing closing Sp 93.06p
Atb
This weeks Winners and Accolade goes to
"Robleo and GutterSnipe "
Well done
Closing Sp 93.06p
Apologies for spoiling the speeches
"Even Google and Yahoo get it wrong although they’re much better these days."
Google Finance charts operate as a live service, so won't lock up to the minute price at the UT, but at the latest price to be reported. Google is useful, as most of the time the price is instantaneous on their Finance page, whereas the price is 15 minutes behind even on the London Stock Exchange, unless you pay for a live service. Another interesting difference between Google and the London Stock Exchange, is that Google historically remembers the full daily volumes, whereas the LSE only reports the On Exchange volumes on the Daily/Monthly Trade Recap bar chart. The chart below is derived from data on Google sheets and shows the total daily Volumes, including both On and Off Exchange trades:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ49B8X4hFFdtXb6WUx45CDRcgMt5FBglgZCFc5UnApKRpOX8cznaVjvfKeIWdC6xr70q5wCbdhpFe7/pubchart?oid=2085752711&format=interactive
Hi Roofer,
Roofer, you’ve got to be kinder to yourself - and iWeb.
As soon as I saw the time stamp on your post announcing the winner I knew what the problem was. You don’t have to run after the posters on this forum as soon as.
Get yourself a cuppa first, they can wait until later in the evening - or even Sat or Sunday.
I know how much time these things can intrude on compilers such as yourself of these contests. Even iWeb needs time. This site the longest time (up to 15 minutes at its worst).
So why not go to the font of all true knowledge? The source to the rest of the world of London prices?
The London Stock Exchange itself!
The VOD SP is free – and everything on earth first derives its data from the LSE.
Here’s the link to add to your bookmarks:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/VOD/vodafone-group-plc/company-page
- But please let the London Stock Exchange update the after-hours auctions the ropey uncrossed trades (UT’s at 4:35pm) etc., and allow all the computers to breathe and balance the day’s chaos.
Stay away from anything that is timed in the 4:30’s.
4:50 pm is it - but 5pm puts all debates to bed.
Bet you a £1 your iWeb data source is now tuned to the same as this site and the London Stock Exchange. Even Google and Yahoo get it wrong although they’re much better these days.
And I second Robleo’s sentiment to you of:
“. . . and thanks for your hard work “.
Yes, seconded! :)
Dan, go on rub it in, kick a man when he's down lol, oh dear what will happen Tuesday? do you remember what happened when England hosted the rugby world cup?
have a good weekend Amigo and brush up on the financial abbreviations ?
robleo grumpy? Never? Iran 2 wales 0. ooh!
Thanks again roofer,we all love you really?
hey Dan, we all know this is just for a bit of fun and taking part, and we need a bit of fun, there are a few miserable gits on these boards, come to think of it i can be a bit grumpy myself sometimes;-)
have a great weekend guy 99p next week cheers roofer
I declare robleo the winner with his 93p & gutter snipe 2nd also with 93p, but robs prediction came in earlier. Come on roofer, get your act together? Don't cheat my mate robleo?
Sorry roofer,but lately you have got the closing sp wrong. The closing sp was 93.06 as on this London South East Site. but you need to wait until about 5pm to get an accurate close. Also try vodafone stock market close, but again wait until 5pm. Thanks though.
Hi roofer, i had a little chuckle about that as i got caught out with it myself before, i found it better to use the share price from this very site and leave it until 5.15, just a suggestion mate you are doing a great job, and thanks for your hard work
Velo
Ref closing Sp , ive always used iweb closing Sp time of reading was around 16.35pm , if any Contestant have any other ideas when or where readings should be taken , please post......atb
Closing Sp 92.64p 25th Nov ( source iweb )
Guttersnipe 93p
Newsid 96.2p
Pennysworth 89.5p
Kiwitwo 106.55p
Wayzgoose 96.8p
Roofer 94p
Closing Sp 92.64p 25th Nov (source iweb )
Fredrubble 92.69p
Doyen Dan 99.4p
Marybr 108.86p
Robleo 93p
Sontonspike 100p
Exil 97p
Vodger 103p
Aspers 102.3p
Abjector 101p
Slarti 118p
Mikey 91p
Toffeeapple 91p
Edit,...
Former lolz
Long term lurker, first time poster... Finally dipped my toes for a few at 92.8.
Thought why not as it's at covid lows, decent retrace or captulation, fingers crossed for the latter
2 other posters both posted 93p (just 0.6p out from a bullseye).
- surely they are the joint winners?
You should never take any close on this site before 4:50pm as it can run up to 15 minutes behind the actual prices, and the balancing of the 4:35 auction books.
So say 5pm as a more definite cut-off point, as I've seen them take that long too.
Well done Fred.
I will go for 118p again next week, and that's after serious consideration, and a bottle of merlot.
Fred rubble, Not you again! Let's face it, you live in the stone age? Yabba dabba doo. Well done. What was Barney Flintstone's prediction?
Mikey. Thanks for your post. £20k is a quite a lot so hopefully no more ski slope predictions. As with my post to robleo, we should agree to disagree about Read. I will go along with getting rid of Read, if the call is from big investors, not the likes of me, you, or anybody else on this armchair expert forum. But cheers Mike, Amigo.
congratulation Fred another gold award for you, i think i should have got a silver award for just losing ;-(