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The machine is being wasted.
I would have shorted and made millions.
71.6p for next week please.
An i had knowledge of the large debt load, or i might have messed up also.
Luckily i had a time machine and didn't buy any Vodafone.
You cannot beat having a time machine.
Thanks, Roofer
I’m so deep underwater I can feel the pressure. Averaging 1.14.
I just hope that Warren Buffet was right when he said “Time in the market will always beat timing the market”, so will stay put for now, and maybe for a long time yet, but will add if it gets ridiculously cheap
I’ll go 73.36 for next week
GLA
All true fleccy. However, in the world of high finance anything and everything is possible. There used to be only a handful of rotten eggs like Michael Milken and Ivan Boesky back in the 80s. These days the likes of those "profiles" are running the global trade - regrettably.
Just to add to my last entry, the third party acting on behalf of VOD would have the option to purchase stock off book, or on exchange, so the market would struggle to see the likes of Goldman's, Morgan Stanley, or Barclays purchasing the stock through the various different channels. I also don't see the agent, acting on behalf of the purchaser, communicating their trades to the market, since they'd be risking severe reputational damage and lawsuits.
As far as Market Makers front running the price, I don't see that since VOD would use a similar strategy to Lloyds and let a third party purchase the shares as a low percentage of daily volume. The only way the market would get visibility of the shares purchased, would be if they cancelled them daily and reported it immediately, or cancelled at the end of the month and telegraphed it as part of the Total Voting Rights RNS's. Lloyds is a good example of how share buybacks can have a limited effect on the share price and I don't personally believe the share price would have been lower in the absence of buybacks; Of course VOD is a different beast to Lloyds, so the market may treat the stock differently in respect of pricing the stock during a buyback program.
UK rules don't allow Public Companies to do secret share buybacks unfortunately.
Fleccy, agreed but it's kind of like the Schrodinger's thought experiment. It would only work if they executed it secretly and in a shock and awe move, otherwise MMs and hedgies will front run them in nanoseconds, rocketing prices to 1+ in a flash.
Even if they acted in secret, they still need to have the buybacks executed by their broker, who always have ways to spread the identity of the buyer.
I believe we are already at the inflection point where a buyer with intent may either take up a substantial stake or a complete takeover. Liberty global took out leverage to get in at 90+ levels!
PS in my previous i meant to say i hope its NOT like the Serbia moment
Mesh, I'm not a big fan of buybacks myself, as I'm primarily a dividend investor. At some point though, if the price drops too low, then it must reach a tipping point where buybacks make more sense than dividends, since the opportunity to reduce their overall shares in issue will feed back into lower dividend costs when dividends are reinstated. I don't believe the price would drop to 50p, but it's an easy price to work with; At 50p a share, should Vodafone decide to suspend the dividend and divert the money into buybacks, they could purchase around 4 Billion shares a year which would mean they could reduce their shares in issue by 16 Billion shares in just 4 years, assuming the market decided to hold the stock down rather than re-rating upward; In reality the market would have to raise the share price well before the four years were up, since the top ten shareholders alone hold nearly 11 Billion shares and the top 20 shareholdings, including Vodafone Group plc Share Incentive Plan, add up to over 13.5 Billion shares. The biggest reason for not buying back, is that it would also grow the percentage holding of the top shareholders, making a takeover easier and more likely.
As an add on to the previous post, it's rather obvious telcos don't belong to the stock market as having a strong cash flow is not valued whatsoever. In private hands Vod would have at least 5-6bn in cash flow as things are today and not discounting for the inevitable improvement to the top and bottom line in the next few years. Even at a CF at 5bn, an offer of 30bn means a 6x annual cash flow and if you include the instant cash payment to the acquirer, it will drop down to 5x instantly. How many such listed businesses are out there right now?
Sometimes I wonder if it's all as simple as the American political geo political vortex. Petro dollar flexing its muscle impressing the gullible with their trillion dollar companies, applying maximum pain on doubters who disagree with who is the master of earth. In this maxim, UK relegated itself to back of the room through brexit.
It has been reflected by others here that FTSE100 is damaged goods, so Vod is not an exception as there appears to be a concerted effort and a hidden hand in proving a point by having the value of UK companies thrashed. Pension funds (domestic or foreign) can be incentivised to allocate more of their capital to UK denominated companies, but it ain't happening and I wonder why? In my opinion its ferocious global power play a foot here and hope it's like the Serbia moment which triggered WWI.
Fleccy
Agreed with your assessment of the robustness of the business.
As for dividends, this won't impact the current cash balance and the projected fcf. In fact, I would argue Vod's cash position and fcf will improve at a higher rate than presented by CEO.
How and why? The income statement, balance sheet and cashflow statement cover until the end of q1 for this year. The actual dividends won't be paid until August. That's a five month delay. Vod as a business will have collected a ton of cash to pay for the upcoming dividends. The recent statements included dividends paid out in Feb, so the results reflected fully the impact of dividends.
Another is the energy costs, which are falling much faster than the market agents had anticipated. Further boosting the business is the increase in cross border travel activity, which should be back to pre-covid levels in the very near future.
Like you, I am very happy with the dividend yield. If I had 30bn burning in my pocket I would have taken Vod private myself. That is the degree of my conviction. Offering shareholders 33% premium to Friday's close and upon acceptance, I would have paid myself instantly ca 5bn from the cash in the bank bringing the total to only ca 25bn. It's a no brainer.
Nice little uptick stateside before last night's close. Have we bottomed? I reckon so as a gap was filled at 74p which had been created by a large transaction earlier in the week at that price. Onwards and upwards!
Vod closing Sp 2nd June 75.63p
Newsid 75.8p Winner
Doyen Dan 85p
KiwiTwo 73.5p
GutterS 70p
KelBoy 75p
DarkBlue 86.3p
Android 66p
Jax05 71p
Izstar 82.2p
Robleo 73p
Roofer 83.25p
Enjoy your weekend
IG mentioned back in December if 78p broke this may have legs downs to the 50s
Boy I hope not
"& why 7p?"
I thought that too. The divi will come to around 3.8p, so where does the other 3.2p come from?
I look at it like this, at some point the share price has to bottom out and although the headlines might hype up the drop, it has little bearing on the day to day operations of the company. Maybe I'm in the minority in my way of thinking, but the share price dropping doesn't particularly worry me, as I have no need or inclination to sell my Vodafone shares.
My personal view is that the markets are organised to skew the odds in favour of the institutional investors, allowing them to move volumes on and off book to drive individual stock, or sector, pricing in whichever way they wish.
So how much could Vodafone's Market Cap drop to, who knows? There are currently 26.944 Billion shares circulating in the Market and If Vodafone dropped to 50p, the Market Cap would be around £13.497 Billion, disregarding treasury shares. Vodafone currently have around €11.628 in cash and cash equivalents, so If they stopped dividend payments and directed the cash into buybacks instead, they could dramatically reduce the number of shares in issue and theoretically raising the stock price; The market would then have two choices, it could either lift the price, or allow the company to mop up stock over time at a low price. If Vodafone was at risk of going bust I'd be worried, but I don't see that; Worst case they could stop the dividends and use the cash elsewhere, but in the meantime I'll keep collecting the dividends, thank you very much 💰.
So Danny, you say it will drop 7p from current sp 75.63 = 68.63 during trading on the 8th, so where do you get the 65p from, & why 7p? I just wondered? Sorry. Dettori & Man C of both favourites, so you could be right there.
My prediction end next week ex div is 81p
Danny yes you are speculating, but your wording indicates you are talking facts. You are not.
Hope this ship turns round eventually, my average is 89p
Just bought at 76p
Everyone is speculating and we all have opinions. If anyone knew what WILL happen we wouldn't be writing messages in this group
Sorry Danny but you are speculating and stating it as if its a fact and that's wrong. That's why I needed to interject.
It will drop 7p from current SP (75.63) during trading on the 8th. lets see.
Dettori for the Derby on Saturday. Man C for the FA Cup.
To be fair the select few bears have been right pretty much every single god damn day for sometime now ffs
Danny-G. You say the sp will drop another 7p by 8/6.23. Is that a matter of fact then? You could say, I think it will fall, or it might fall. That would make far more sense. Good luck though with your fortune telling! What does your lucky heather say will win the Derby on saturday?