The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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I know someone was saying to someone else that it's not very logical to say they expect a drop but are buying now. I'm kind of doing the same now. I've started to buy, but I believe that there's a reasonable chance that we could fall back to 68.7 or a bit below. So, to avoid being the target of any 'ire' my logic is, that although my view of the Charts/PA/TA whatever is that we could (and probably will) fall back a little), I accept that I can't see into the future, I might not be in front of a screen when it turns (if?). I've said a while ago also that it becomes difficult for me personally to have a great deal of confideence in supports etc when we're at or very close to all time lows.
I'm in, but at a low level and although I think I'll make a profit, my level of confidence is not that high for the moment
Fleccy
I suspect the market wants to see that a maintained dividend does in fact come from earnings , and not just handing back asset sale cash or cash on hand.... which obviously wouldn't be a performance dividend
If I've added it up correctly €4.12 Billion matures in 2025, even that's manageable since they're currently sitting on Cash and Cash equivalents of €7.148 Billion, not including what they'll get for Spain and possibly Italy if they sell there. The dividend is a large outlay so sustainability will depend on EBITDA and Free cash Flow, with the effect of disposals difficult to gauge; Variables like Capex/lease liability reductions will also feed into the figures alongside a decrease in Revenue and EBITDA, hopefully the new CEO has a plan and will do the necessary. As far as the dividend's concerned, in my opinion it's a bonus as long as it's maintained.
" As for the puts - if div is slashed, the sp will jump significantly so the logic of puts is flawed, unless your thesis is based on market agents using the puts as a way of sending a signal., which is equally flawed."
nothing flawed about the level of Puts , they are likley to be in the money right now, which the market responds to...in whichever company they are placed...
..in fact there may well be Puts in place in VOD where decisions are made towards the end of December (as the quarterly Options expire) , as to whether to close them or roll them over ... some may have been in place all year
The question about the final dividend may well go on right until next May
" In 2 years time we will be looking at a net debt of ca 10-15bn. "
Then you are looking at a smaller business with less cash flow as the revenue from the asset sales will obviously be...no more ...the number of shares will have stayed the same.....so.... it doesn't take much to think the current annual dividend looks expensive .... obviously the CEO is looking to grow business revenue and re-strengthen the likes of Germany as a better focus than hanging on to poor return markets like Spain and possibly Italy...but ..she has work to do and the market awaits what she can achieve and in what timescale
He was you know
Jax, there is one thing I don't understand. If you keep talking this share down and said 60 will be the new high, why did you buy half of your shares at 70 then ? It just doesn't make any sense at all, lol.
Not sure about that mesh. Cutting the dividend would make a lot of sense for the business at the moment as 11% is too high, but many are only invested for the dividend. I suspect that any talk of cutting the dividend (that seems inevitable to me) will lead to a further slide in the SP. But it's all about time, has it been factored in? How long would the slump in perception last before the reality of it being a positive for the business kicks in. Interesting times, low spread, question is "is it good value over a sensible time frame"?
Spain and Ily will have likely been offloaded from which there will be at least 15bn to pay off outstanding debt. The debt refinancing in 2024 is likely to be paid off by cash. The others due for refinancing will be multiple times covered by the new cash.
So all smoke and mirrors. The total debt will also shrink massively as a result of the 3 merger. In 2 years time we will be looking at a net debt of ca 10-15bn.
As for the puts - if div is slashed, the sp will jump significantly so the logic of puts is flawed, unless your thesis is based on market agents using the puts as a way of sending a signal., which is equally flawed.
60s will become high
I don’t know what’s worse being an investor is this junk or being a locked in customer….
It’s what nightmares are my of.
".....If the dividend is maintained, an 11% yield is a nice sweetener for new buyers "
well, Fleccy....the final dividend decision will not come until next May....so the market will make its bets on whether some of that gets sliced off...or not ...
At the moment the market must be betting in the futures markets with Puts etc that the odds of it being sliced are increasing... at present ... Q3 results in February will be the next Update to see what progress has been made
Bah humbug
This is not a recomendation, simply for interest.
https://screenrec.com/share/7iTHAVFCmR
".....& debt re-structure is going to cost a lot more"
They have two Bonds maturing in 2024 , one for €750m in January and one for CHF 350m in December .... so whilst refinancing will indeed be at a higher rate , nothing too much they cant handle
2025 is the year where there is considerably more to re-finance
https://investors.vodafone.com/debt-investors/bonds-outstanding-eu-and-us
The capital intensity strategy of the sniveler that used to run this co has really come home to roost. Was he so dumb that he thought bank rates would be sub-subterranean forever ! We do breed some terrible businessmen in the UK !
Just sayin’
https://www.wallstreetzen.com/blog/triple-bottom-pattern/
Buying at 70p when you are convinced the price will be much cheaper in the future is the investment strategy of a simpleton. GLA
RNS On its way
Jax posted "Yep sold at 79 back in with half at 70"
So are you in or are you out Jax?
You promised us the 50's. When is that going to happen? Never!
It’s over 30% less than where you thought it wouldn’t go below hey Flexcy
So now you believe it won’t go below here….
If the dividend is maintained, an 11% yield is a nice sweetener for new buyers. I've bought and will continue buying around this price, because even if the dividend is reduced or stopped the stock is cheap.
"Going off the Google Finance charts Vodafone is hitting 27 year lows, it'll be interesting to see if the market can push it down much further from here."
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At these ridiculously low levels it may get gobbled up. Deutsche is now trading at 5x vod
A hostile bid may come in at just above 100 to test the appetite. I would have done if I had the means.
The only thing going up is the dividend yield lol
This isn’t going to improve anytime fast & I can see it falling further. Vodafone is struggling to generate enough cash to pay the dividend, which cost it a thumping €2.5bn in 2023. Adjusted free cash flow fell 11% last year to €4.8bn and it's expected to slide again, to €3.3bn in 2024.
6 million customers lost in just 2 months & debt re-structure is going to cost a lot more.
So, who in their right mind would buy here?
Going off the Google Finance charts Vodafone is hitting 27 year lows, it'll be interesting to see if the market can push it down much further from here.