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Simon Thompson bangs the VLG drum this evening:
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/05/19/primed-for-bumper-profit-growth/
Boom-ba-boom-baba-boom
There is a lot of caution and talk about difficult Q1, logistics difficult and margin was down several % which is never good news.
The market is unconvinced and needs to see what VLG can do….
Can it realise the potential sales in the pipeline.
Does it have pricing power or will margins be further eroded by higher costs?
Plenty of potential….but management has promised alot in the past and then been caught out by events…..IMO there is another 12-18m of results to deliver before there will be a significant rerating.
Hi Rivaldo, really pleased with the results - and they were exactly along the lines of the trading update. Singer are also bullish in their update this morning and see an 85% upside from here.
The attraction here (apart from the obvious value) is its defensiveness. Even though it's growing, the business is quite defensive: The products are fairly impervious to the challenges of inflation (inelastic demand) - I mean do you even know how much a bottle of mouthwash is? Most people don't I would think. Let alone the price of some of the more esoteric treatments. If people need them they just buy them - simple as that.
GLA
Pleasantly surprised by the results, which were nicely ahead of broker expectations. The outlook is confident too.
Producing 4.65p adjusted diluted EPS in a pandemic-hit year when Chinese sales and hand sanitizer sales both reduced to almost nothing is pretty impressive.
Hopefully the new Samarkand distributorship agreement will kick in smoothly and quickly given SMK's already existing trade routes into Asia.
Cenkos have introduced what they call "conservative" forecasts of 4.52p adjusted EPS this year.
They summarise:
"FY21 results, positive outlook
Venture Life Group has reported its results for FY21A, with revenues and adjusted EBITDA coming in ahead of our forecasts. Revenues, supported by two acquisitions, grew 9% to £32.8m with the acquisitions more than offsetting lost FY20A COVID-related sales and significantly reduced shipments to China. The gross margin was also affected by these factors, though also supported by higher margin acquisitions. Adjusted EBITDA grew 8%.
Management have provided a positive outlook for FY22E, based on trading to date and the order book, which supports our forecasts and the introduction of FY23E expectations. We believe the company has set strong foundations for growth and maintain our Buy recommendation."
"Investment thesis – We believe the H2/21A performance demonstrates the potential within Venture Life. Looking forward, the company has a stronger and broader portfolio of Brands, a larger order book (vs the same point in 2021) and increased available manufacturing capacity to support organic Group level growth. With a strong balance sheet, we expect this organic growth to be supported by additional accretive acquisitions. We maintain our Buy rating."
Or maybe not
The results are underwhelming……but as flagged…..difficult Q1 does not bode well and these results are not rocket fuel for the sp.
Needs more director buys….a clear recovery in performance sales growth
Why the spare (inefficient) capacity in Sweden is trumpeted I don’t know…..it is an expensive country to operate in…..better consolidating in Italy? Or building a UK plant or Far East base.
The sales and marketing guys need to get out there, we need to be growing at 25-30% for a couple of years….
Ground hog month…..now clearly mid May not early May…..where are the audited results?
Just got a few more of these .... 60p all day long!
I wonder what Grant Thornton employees are doing at the office; smoking weed and playing video games? /s
I bought back in this morning after seeing the RNS. Hopefully we’ll get the results early next month. For some reason my buy counted as sell on the London South East trading board.
Now an unspecific early May.
The results can only be in The second half of April now. So much for early April.
Hope there is not a technical problem as well as the GT staffing issue.
Apologies. For some reason when I wrote the last post, I was thinking it was Wednesday. So there is actually two days of trading this week left.
I sold this morning. I still think Venture Life is great company (I've been using Dentyl and I think it's brilliant mouthwash) but this lack of communication about the results is frustrating. The results HAVE to be out by tomorrow because I believe there is no trading on Friday for Easter weekend, however, I don't have faith in that happening. Might buy back the shares down the line when the matter clears up. Good luck to everybody holding and I hope this rockets.
We are 40% into April…..definitely middle third and middle quintile…so I think mid-April has been reached…..no longer early April.
“When does early April become mid April become late April ?”
Exactly. Investors need certainty and the lack of an RNS even just announcing a specific day for the results to be released is frustrating. Next week, fingers crossed.
When does early April become mid April become late April ?
Accounts need to be out next week….otherwise there will growing suspicions of problems.
Having an RNS any day now would be nice. Just to clarify what date exactly will the results will be released. Sadly seeing strong sell numbers over the last couple of days.
There's quite a number of these sorts of delays happening with auditors.... S4's share price crashed this week when PWC announced they couldn't finalise the audit. VLG have painted a very positive picture so once this is endorsed in the FY2021 accounts we'll see a rerate.
I picked up more VLG today sub 37p which I'm pleased with.
The RNS mentioned early April, so maybe next week at the latest. I was hoping for an RNS today to confirm the date, but alas nothing.
I will be worried if the results aren’t out by Easter ??
The announcement clearly blames the auditor…..but a delay did happen before when they changed the CFO.
The two acquisitions win 21 will make it a bigger job, and there is a lot of covid about which may effect staffing. A little bit more information about the circumstances might help the market avoid the worst of the speculative reasons for a delay.
The management commentary implies there is nothing untoward.
"This delay is not acceptable."
Especially announcing it the day before the results were supposed to be released. Don't know if this is on VLG's end or the auditor's end.
This delay is not acceptable. VLG needs to change auditors.
Let’s hope it is just a resource issue rather than a problem.
**233% upside?**
Hi all, I'm very excited by today's update. Let me share why.
1. Revenue £0.6m ahead of estimates. So what I hear you say. Bear with me.
2. EBITDA "in line" so that means it's around £6.3m. So 2021 PE of 9.9 (half to that of its peers)
3. Samarkind/China boost started in early 2022.
4. Forward PE forecast to drop to 7.8 based on past assumptions..... BUT
5. Did anyone spot the "Q4 revenues 59% above Q3"? Game changer in my opinion. My maths is that we know H1 2021 was £13.9m revenue leaving £18.7m for H2 yeah? We know Q4 59% above so £18.7m/2.59 gives us Q3 at £7.2m (same run rate as Q1 and Q2) and Q4 as £11.5m. 50% jump from Q3 to Q4.
6. What's more a 11.5m for Q4, assuming we see only modest 10% growth in 2022 now suggests a £50.5m revenue for 2022, or £5m ahead of Cenkos prior forecasts. I think 10% is too modest because of China/Samarkand so indulge me and assume 20% that brings us to £55m with a likely PBT of about £8m compared to Cenkos current 2022 forecast of £4m (based on £41.7m turnover).
7. On that 20% scenario the 2022 PE has now dropped to 6 so now about 233% upside compared to peers which suggests a fair value of 133p
8. However it just gets better. We know VLG have a credit line of nearly £50m and potentially more based on the GP of the acquiring firm so there's room for other upside via acquisitions. We also know they have production capacity to cater for growing revenue (to around £65m-70m).
9. We also know that Covid is rampant even if we are now apparently pretending it isn't there and we can all take the masks off. Practical steps like taking Dentyl is probably the way forward in a world where keeping a mask on makes people frown. I've been to business meetings recently where I felt like an odd ball keeping my mask on. We also know the Chinese profilically eat their shark fins and rhino horns and all sorts of weird stuff so they'll hammer the Dentyl if they think it will do them some good.
10. For what it's worth I felt the new CFO is a better speaker than the prior one. I think they've filled that vacancy well (or pushed out the old one and replaced him with a better alternative, who knows)
Anyway I'm very bullish and I'm gratified to see this heading in the way I anticipated it would. I think we'll see Cenkos' article in early April then ST apeing their analysis shortly after. That gives you a week or so window to buy in the 40s. I've a healthy position already here but I must say I'm sorely tempted to top up further ahead of news.
GLA
Announcement re: Full year results for the year ended 31st December 2021
Venture Life (AIM: VLG), a leader in developing, manufacturing and commercialising products for the self-care market, announces that the Company's auditors have been unable to meet the pre-agreed timetable for the approval of the results on 24th March 2022, citing resource issues. As a result of this delay, the Company expects to announce its results for the year ended 31st December 2021 in early April.
Vol. Sold 1,767
Sold Value £649.85
Vol. Bought 165,215
Bought Value £62,710.59
Some frenzied buying today.