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Very disappointed with the latest development as so much resources put into the USA cough cold market and now washing hands to say the expensively assembled sales force and costly acquired cough cold products are not working in one of the worst cough cold season in N. America, even reported that a Chinese herbal syrup distributor made fortune for quickly selling off CHM cough syrup for �50 per bottle. Sadly this will quickly head towards the penny stock range if workable measures not taking quickly.
They have clearly put all their eggs in one basket and it hasn't materialised. Lots of speculative buys coming through. No point selling now I guess.
�40m in the bank. What a joke.....must be a good medium term hold
Quote below from Stifel.. They assume �20mn of cash can be extracted from US business, implying 4p per share...then 3p added on top for the drug discovery biz.... �Remaining value at Vernalis. Ironically, over the past few years Vernalis�s drug discovery CRO business based in Cambridge UK has continued to trade well, progressing collaborations with partners and repeatedly achieving milestones. Vernalis currently has three drugs in active development with partners, i.e. Corvus�s CPI-444, Verona�s RPL554 and Servier�s S55746. We value Vernalis�s drug discovery business at 2x FY18E revenues of �8m, i.e. 3p/share. Reiterate Hold. Our revised target price of 7p (previously 13p) suggests there is some residual value in Vernalis beyond the cough/cold franchise. However, the upside is not significant enough for the clear risks of a business model in flux. Hold.�
I thought so much was in the price at 15p. It has been a painful journey. I did always consider there was salvage value here which gave me the confidence to take the risk. I guess I've got to tough it out now. The only positive that i can point to is that it is clear investors and/or the chairman have stepped in and told the management team to wind things down quickly to preserve cash. I thought the tone of the RNS was an utterly defeated one - particularly the sentence on Tris. As a result, I think plans for whatever happens next are very well developed. so, what's the value of the Tuiz revenue stream if channeled through a major sales network? could it provoke competing bids for the rights or will it be a distressed sale? it's difficult to see any value to the rest of the cough/cold pipeline, given on-going development costs and FDA uncertainty. the drug discovery business is already non-core and should be de-merged into a separate entity. it washes its face and is globally respected but it's not a growth business - or hasn't been allowed to be at Vernalis...I'm not sure how to release value there..Merge with C4X or ETX? the rest of the pipeline is what it is - as you will know from redx, it's difficult to attract value when investor confidence is low. The key is the cash....I like the idea of new CEO with a turn-around/restructuring pedigree.
Been posting on here over a year warning people to stay away. If you still have funds here you may as well just hold them in case a new CEO is brought in who can sell off the crap and make something of the research business.
...but I'm not sure how results can be anywhere near adequate unless the expensively assembled salesforce really manage to pull sthg out of the bag. Last fwd looking statement indicated they'll struggle to hit target on Tuiz even in a record flu season, and that the drugs they're resubmitting (a very costly process) thru their bumbling partner Tris may not sell well anyway as they are narcotic based. They are targeting prescriptions rather than sales off the shelf but in the same breath say prescriptions are decreasing overall as well, at a time they need "exponential" increases. They then have the audacity to suggest their non-narcotic drug might do the job instead, despite the fact it's way off NDA application and has just one $ (<50m potential) next to it on their pipeline description page. Add to that significant, accelerated cash burn running alongside their underperforming, limited product range, and I really am considering selling even if it's just to save the nominal amount my holding is now valued at! Apparently their previously considerable cash reserve will be gone within a year, so what then? Can anyone please tell me anything positive to go on in the meantime? Perhaps they can they change direction and focus purely on R&D so they can stay as a going concern before it's too late? As a strict rule I never deramp. But I am very disappointed in myself for believing the above negative news was already "priced in" and thinking it might be undervalued - hoping for Tris to succeed in the meantime - when clearly it wasn't. I'm massively underwater here as everyone is, but I just want to give my tuppence worth so anyone thinking about catching this falling knife has a wee bit more info to hand. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong, but this is definitely my 'least favorite' share right now, and I hold redx!
Bit of a bounce here today but VER is now half the price since my last post in October. Chart wise, still very clearly in a downward trend and I would touch until good news, a chart reversal indicator or possible 2/3p. Gl all
The new product sales were never going to be an instant hit. If you've worked in this industry it takes time for market sentiment to warm. I think everyone was expecting a boom of sales. That doesn't happen in the healthcare industry on new product launches. Its only a matter of time before Sales of new products increase. Having seen the efficacy data for the Tuizistra product its a product that on the face of it looks like its a market leader. Only a matter of time!
Not sure the link to this chart will work but it shows how bad this flu season has been relative to the previous five seasons. It�s a real shame Vernalis was prevented from getting its full suite of products out there on the shelves. Note that if we are not selling a shed load of what we already have out in the sales channels, then we have a serious problem. On balance, there�s a bit of room for raised guidance on existing product sales here, in my view. http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-XF530_Dshot_NS_20180129225925.png
Maybe so, but there are far better opportunities elsewhere for less risk and not so utterly dependent on an overpaid CEO and an apparently badly failing secretive & private junior partner. No news here for months, spend running at some 20 mil+ annually while income (in millions) can be counted on one hand. AVOID
Anyone have a good NAV estimate including recent milestones? My estimate is 14p-20p including https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daiichi_Sankyo
Right question, though!
sorry wrong board - DOH!!
director buy - 90k @49p!!
Took up a small position here today. Hoping for a recovery with sp. as you say, the cash position alone looks good.
Anyone know what the charts look like for this. Thanks
Guess everyone’s shook out... well that’s the sign to load up... looking for target 14-20 by 2nd qtr unless takeover talks
Just valued at cash and nothing for IP or speculation... ideal buyout target here at a badly oversold level on miniature volume
Wasn’t the release today already factored at this mcap n cash surprised no buy out bid
Why the drop today ?
a gaggle of chunky trades just there
well, you're right that risks definitely exist - that's why the chart looks like it does. we've been fretting over those risks all year. but your '2/3p range in sight' stuff doesn't make any financial sense at all. it would imply a market cap of �10mn at 2p, which would mean the shareholders' equity would be worth 16% of the cash in the business. I've seen discounts to cash in the past (negative enterprise values) but nothing approaching that kind of level because cash is returned to shareholders way before that point is reached. with a sales-force already in place, two products being sold in the current cough/cold season, some decent revenues from the drug discovery business, I think there's a margin of safety here. Are the two complete response letters and the risks that the two products never make it on to the shelf in the price? I did think that was the case at 15/16p. The move to 12p reminded me that I frequently get things wrong. However, as a risk reward, I think Vernalis is one of the best trades out there in AIM life sciences at the moment...Am very happy to own it here. Please don't wait for 2/3p because you won't see it...
Hate to say this, but looks like 2/3p range is in sight. The rejection by the FDA has hammered loss of earnings. Investors will now be wondering whether these drugs will be approved or not. Forget about the current asset value of the company. If it cant make a profit the sp will continue to drop and the charts atm do not look promising, even though it has bounced of some support. These types of shares are always a massive risk, but the rewards can be amazing. If your looking to buy in now, there is support here so it could all go upwards from here. My advice would be to just do a small buy, and add at 2/3p if things don't look to bad. Otherwise wait and see how it pans out. There really are better other shares to invest in atm. As always good luck to all
Thanks for the update Cadburyhill, I guess that production issues are easier to fix. Given the current liquidity here a little good news would light the blue touch paper, I'm about 30% down at the minute but that's small fry considering the potential.