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Very promising to see another US investor, Capital Research, one of the biggest funds in the world with $300 billion under management, announcing today that they have bought 2.5 million shares.
Short squeeze coming.. check the shorts been reducing in recent days, squeeze to £6+ incoming by xmas
Well given that you have a negative opinion regardless I am not surprised you see it that way. Large profit? what is that based on? Information you have working with the shorting institutions? As per public data they opened a short position of 0.51% on the 14th of September when the price varied between GBP468p and GBP578p, and then they picked up more at even lower prices on 3rd and 12th Oct, with a small amount at a higher price on the 24th Oct. Based on the volatility of prices they may or may not have made a profit but I doubt it was "large". Please shed any light on any information you are able to put together from your sources, as I am dependent on public information.
That said, them making a small profit or loss after the interest costs they incurred is totally irrelevant for retail investors here. The only relevant fact is that they are exiting or "reducing their position" (as you insist on calling it). This signals that they do not expect it to continue a downward trend, otherwise why close their position?
So in answer to your question "Just means they crystallised their gain doesn't it?" : i couldnt care less. They are no longer willing to maintain their short position.
Do you mean "reduced their position at a large profit"
Just means they crystallised their gain doesn't it?
Whilst there has been less movement than what I expected since the release of the half year results, it is very interesting to see that yet another institutional shorter (after Blackrock) has reduced their short position below the threshold at which they are reported. well another one bites the dust with Coltrane and Boldhaven yet to concede. The latter two closing would result in much more SP volatility as their positions are much bigger than what Blackrock and Marble had.
Y'right
going up by look of it. £5 break and heading up towards recent highs and probably £6 short term
There is some recognition of the difficulties facing the company in the next period, although much is glossed over in all the flowery rhetoric. Energy crisis, consumer caution, difficult trading conditions. This time it's not me saying it.
Thoughts on todays price falling? Any ideas?
@blackboulder
@black boulder
No reply about Wilding spending his own money?
Very easy to spend company money.
For some reason I can't paste dutch ttf prices on barchart, but you can look yourself. Futures are trending up, not down.
I tihnk if you have a wee look at the European wholesale Gas price, you'll see an even bigger decline with prices hovering around the €95 MWh mark end of October (was €349 MWh a tthe end of August). Last time I checked he EU's average storage capacity was running at c.93%, which is also a substanital increase in reserves (the oriignal price hike being driven by governments rush for storage). Still high yes, but as stated, not quite your armageddon portrayal and as a few posters have noted, already well (too well) factored into the SP. €349 MWh to under €100 - now that's pretty basic. ;-)
Ps. thanks for the heads-up with the calendar - November it is. ;-)
Could I gently point out that October was exceptionally mild, and that we are no longer in October. Also, the big consuming production plants are not in UK, so the UK energy price is utterly useless as a piece of information. Strewth mate, basic logic.
According to Aurora Energy Research, "wholesale prices in GB continued to drop in October, with baseload prices decreasing to £120/MWh, a 54% reduction from September. The main driver of this was gas prices, which fell by 56% to £37/MWh. Low carbon generation moved into winter generation patterns, with a 21% increase, despite solar generation decreasing by 21%, due to onshore and offshore wind generation increasing by 58% and 59%, respectively since September."
Not quite the energy price armageddon then (as repeatedly forecasted here by our sensitive shorter). ;-)
Very interesting @blackboulder
If Geoff Wilding was as serious as you say then he would be buying shares with his own personal money. It’s all good using company money.. would say a lot more to the SH if he used his own wallet!
As for his wealth being tied up already in 22 million Victoria shares, maybe he should sell his Yacht and his Private plane and invest some of that to get this back where it belongs.
It will be an interesting few weeks but all this could be fast tracked by the man himself if he were to stop being such a tight fisted sailor!
Things are looking up and there are a number of indicators that point to things continuing to improve;
Victoria recently bought a solid business in the US delivering $7m of Ebitda for a great price, only 4x Ebitda in Cash on Completion, plus an Earn-Out arrangement.
The business has confirmed EBITDA in excess of £100m for the first half of the year, despite all the well-known headwinds (many of which are now easing).
Always bet with the insiders, and in this case that’s Spruce House who very recently bought more than 1.4m shares, Victoria itself which has bought nearly 2m of it’s own shares in recent months, and the CEO, Philippe Hamers, who has also bought shares in recent months.
A lot has been said about Geoff Wilding not buying shares recently. My guess is that a fair portion of his net worth is already tied up in his approximately 22 million Victoria shares, which is plenty to ensure his motivation and commitment. He and the rest of the board would not be directing Victoria to buy its own shares if they were not confident in the future of the business.
The share price has this week been touching the 200 day moving average. If it breaks through this level, many investors will see that as a very solid signal for a continued upward trend.
While it’s clear that the next 12 months are going to be difficult, the medium to long term outlook, which is what matters, must be for a much improved share price over what it is today, which is still less than half what it was at the beginning of the year.
OK, you didn't say it, but the implication of saying that you thought all the bad news was already priced in is surely saying that you didn't expect more bad news.
The oil industry commentators that I follow suggest that the vessels are choosing to stay at sea, giving them the flexibility to divert to the port of the highest bidder. Solar energy can be discounted until next summer, so gas fills the generation void. Wind power in winter is highly variable, in fact the ten day wind lull that occurred last winter was essentially the trigger for the gas crisis, Europe was screaming for supplies at the same time as the far east, especially China. So, if we get a similar weather system parked over Scandinavia this year, with much reduced flows on Nordstream, then the demand for LNG could become extreme, making those vessel owners very rich, and us Europeans very cold, or poor, probably both.
You sarcastically say that winter arrives every year, I contest that the unusual circumstances surrounding gas supply could make this one memorable.
I don't read articles to inform me about production difficulties, I speak to folks in the industry. You are right, smaller producers are affected badly. However, the very largest are also hugely impacted, many of their plants are also closed. Couple that with a sharp decline in consumer spending in the sector due to high mortgage and inflation costs, and I fail to see how that can't further impact prospects. But that's just me observing the picture. pessimist, or realist. I'm certainly not an optimist at this point, for the reasons above.
No, I did not say further adverse news would not result in a negative impact on the SP, and frankly I am not sure where you derived that from my comments. However, I do not consider the winter coming as adverse news. Where I live, winter comes every year, and we know when it arrives.
Supplies as you say are not so critical in the short term because the is an abundant supply in the form of LNG tankers awaiting discharge (albeit at a profit) and reserves are full. Now that could change, and that would be an adverse impact. However, as long as reserves are close to 100% there isn’t an immediate concern of supply.
Please feel free to share articles on any production issues. I expect that smaller producers would struggle more than the large producers, but I couldn’t speak to that very much. Well maybe no one was expecting positive new a couple of month ago yet there was a positive RNS on first half performance and a new acquisition.
Quite obviously, your view is debatable.
Are you really saying that, if further adverse news is forthcoming, the market wouldn't respond negatively uder any circumstances? Really ?
Colder weather is incoming, gas supplies are critical, the vessels standing off from EU ports are not there for any other reason than hoping to gain extra profit.
Production suspensions in the industry are extremely real, I have first hand knowledge of that. Yet this company has made only vague acknowledgement. Surprising.
Let's see shall we. The next period could be more than a little rocky IMHO, and I most certianly can't see any upside news for a while.
@Alfista, I hear your concerns and they are real concerns. However surely the reasons you have highlighted are why the share prices is less than 50% of its last 12-month peak. So my very pessimistic friend, it seems to me that the matters you raise have already been factored into the share price. Inflation is not a new topic, energy prices is not a new topic, property construction etc. these are all known factors for months and months and have been taken into account by the market.
The cause for some optimism however is that the more recent RNS's state that the company is on track to hit €100m EBITDA in the first half of the year. You correctly point out that people are paying higher mortgage payments. You should also be fully aware then that the shorters pay interest on their positions... in this economic environment this is a very costly play, especially if the share price is on the rise. Brokers will call a margin to maintain these positions.
As I have mentioned energy prices have recently come down, and in some countries is subsidised for industrial use. It gives me further confidence that all but one institutional investor has held their shareholding and Spruce House has actually increased its shareholding.
Negative or positive sentiment will always ebb and flow, that's the market. But facts are facts, one fact is that the cost of making everything has risen sharply this year, the full reasons would take a whole book to start to explain. the other fact is that the consumer market has been heavily impacted by a huge deruction in available funds. Higher home heating costs, higher mortgage cost, higher consumer financing costs, higher taxes, higher costs of everyday necessities, higher council taxes. All are facts, all come out of the pot before the consumer has any surplus to spend on non necessities. You appear to be ignoring all of those, and I just don't believe having your head buried is good strategy, but it's all you seem to offer.
Maybe the larger shorts have had their profits now, I couldn't say, but the practical realities have only just begun to impact in my opinion. Don't keep fretting about my position, because you don't (and won't) know what it is.
@blackboulder
Have you gotten squashed under a boulder? Haven't heard a peep from you. Where do you think this is heading short/long term?
No copy and paste, would love to hear an update from you in plain English
No doubt I will invest accordingly. I'm trying to make money with my investments and from what I have seen of this company, I stand a good chance.
That's why I've reinvested.
Your attempt to create negative sentiment around this company based on the energy crisis is clearly not working. Has the sp gone beyond your short position? If it has, then you better get @aks343 to jump onto the bulletin boards with some more fairy tales.
No doubt you'll invest accordingly, given your utter confidence that making high energy usage products using scarce and volatile gas will not affect margins and sales. Good luck with that
For the company to have gone so far in such a short space of time, it is pretty impressive.
Even with your glass half full approach, you must admit its very impressive.
And despite the recent crisis things look pretty good for the company.
I don't think you constant negatives about the energy crisis will help your short position.