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Not really, I just stumbled across the story about the Iceberg reports, and can't find a satisfactory response from the company. Either those 2 companies had the value they have attributed to them in the acounts, or they are worthless non assets. Their auditor should clarify how the valuation was created, then I may have the inkling it's a buy. On the other hand, they have a lot of energy intensive businesses which are severely affected by high European energy prices, with the distinct possibility of have production curtailed during a critical shortage this winter. Added to that, they supply to the building industry, which is catching the storm of rapid hikes in mortgage costs. Don't blame me if I don't share your view of rosy uplands, I can see from the reports that the board are full of uber bullish types, but I can't see how they'll overcome the practical issues for a fair old while. Good luck to you if you can see something I can't, that's shares though isn't it. You pays your money ....
@Alfista
You clearly have an agenda. Or you're hoping your sheer negativity will bring the share price down.
But as far as I can see, all the vital figures are suggesting an upturn.
DYOR.
I know where I'm putting my money
quit crying. it’s going up in Q4. Monday it begins
Are you for real? Read my posts on here, I've spelled our precisely what my concerns are.
of who?
no crying here, just deep suspicion.
quit your crying and get buying. this is going up soon
Look at the newbies on here licking each other's posts.
That gets my suspicions raised even further.
The company stands accused of wrongdoing, surely it is entirely necessary for them to refute the two specific accusations, that they had notified acquisitions which were not as stated. I accept entirely that shorters will make statements which support their positions, but it's my opinion that the company is required to answer these two matters.
I hear Roberto Moreno (MD Strategic Investments) is busy across the Atlantic working on a new acquisition.
@BlackBoulder - have you heard anything?
Very thorough research BlackBoulder. Even Mr Wild Thing couldn't conjure up something this good up in his year end report
feels like it’s going up here
Dear Alfista,
The information shared with me by Victoria is not sensitive or inside information at all as the company has merely confirmed that what they have told the market in their RNS statements and annual reports is correct. I have also checked the Companies House records, which are available for anyone to view, which further substantiates what Victoria has told me.
There is no requirement whatsoever for the company to issue a further RNS statement to confirm that what they said in their first RNS and in the annual reports is correct. There would be a requirement for such a further RNS if what they have previously told the market was not correct.
There is nothing unusual about company name changes that occur close to the time of an acquisition when it is the business and assets that are being acquired, and not the legal entity. In fact it is quite necessary for the old company to change its name and then for the new company to change its name, if the purchaser wants to use the name of the old company.
Any innuendo, that the transactions are scams, or fraud, as suggested by the Iceberg report, and repeated by conspiracy theorists and trolls working for the shorters, are a deliberate and dishonest attempt to undermine shareholder confidence and confuse the market, in order to support the trading positions of the shorters.
BlackBoulder:
What does a forecast for EBITDA of £200M for FY 2023 tell us?
The magical EBITDA of £162.8M for FY 2022 was turned by reality into a loss before tax of £12.4M.
If you don't believe the shorters try the FT: https://www.ft.com/content/555c56df-2b90-484c-9ee1-22159479a4bc - and do read between the lines.
AceOfClubs
No need for the formality.
The cases quoted by Iceberg, HFL and Ezi Floor, are certainly puzzling aren't they? Why change the names so close to the transaction dates? If you've spoken to the company, and they have explained this to your satisfaction, I'd be surprised. they must tell the whole market anything of importance, not an individual. You may want to keep your head down if market rules have been broken.
To my mind, an official RNS clarification is required pronto, because silence is not golden, or helpful to the share value.
IMHO
Dear Alfista,
From my own research, including speaking directly to Victoria, I can report categorically that the transactions are arms length, commercial transactions, the acquisition of two long standing, profitable businesses.
If these were not arms length, commercial transactions, that would imply that the lawyers and accountants, the board, and also the auditors, were all complicit in a fraud. Hardly a realistic scenario for a UK publicly listed company.
Iceberg’s implied accusation, that these transactions were a scam or a fraud, are aimed at unsettling investors for the benefit of the shorters.
So, BB, which part if the Iceberg report is misinformation please?
Are the transactions they've referred to strictly arms length business , as the law requires, or are they in house paper shuffles which add no value?
That appears to me to be the crucial point.
So, what's the answer
There have been three independent analyst reports recently which price Victoria shares at around double the current share price; Singer Capital Markets wrote a report and priced the shares at 1,000p in May, Berenberg wrote a very detailed report and priced the shares at 880p in July, and Peel Hunt wrote a report and priced the shares at 900p just last week.
This year’s forecast Ebitda of around £200m is simply last year’s Ebitda plus the Balta acquisition, before any synergies or organic growth, and it was confirmed by Victoria last week that they are on track for that forecast.
The total Net Debt of £936m includes (very conservatively) categorising all of the Koch Preferred Equity as debt (which it isn’t, really).
Using an Ebitda multiple of 10x, that’s a price of 917p, before any synergies or organic growth.
It seems quite obvious, with 80-90% of the shares locked up with long-standing shareholders, and millions and millions of shares shorted, that a short squeeze is coming.
Evil Kinevil, Rollercoaster Ride, BubbaBubbaBubba, what you need to realise, is that Iceberg is itself a shorter, and is almost certainly working with one of the major shorters. It’s not a coincidence that their report suddenly appeared after the major shorters had already loaded up. The report is full of misinformation and innuendo, deliberately designed to unsettle shareholders, the same way a similar report did in 2018, soon after shorters had loaded up. This is the modus operandi of these vultures - load up their short positions, disseminate misinformation to unsettle investors, and unleash trolls to make comments in chat rooms to add credibility to their outrageous assertions.
For example, the Iceberg report questions whether Ezi Floor and Hanover Flooring were even real, independently owned businesses before they were acquired by Victoria for £17m and £25m respectively, or whether these acquisitions were in fact elaborate scams. This is a ridiculous assertion, when Victoria an audited public company, has undergone full statutory due diligence processes three times in recent years, for the bond prospectuses, and again when Koch Industries invested. Nevertheless, I have researched all this very carefully and I can tell you that the facts are as follows;
Hanover was started by Batesh Karim in 1996, and when it was acquired by Victoria in January 2021 it had 15 odd employees and revenues of around £16m.
Ezi Floor was started in 2006 by Batesh’s younger brother, Saqib Karim, and when it was acquired by Victoria in October 2016 it had 25 odd employees and revenues of around £10m.
Both of these acquistions were structured as ‘business and assets’ deals, where the purchaser acquires the business and assets into its own legal entity. There were various company name changes and changes of directors that occurred around the time of acquisition There is nothing unusual about any of this when businesses and assets are acquired without the legal entity, which Iceberg knows of course, as I’m sure you do too.
I am sure that many of the shorters are starting to panic because the share price is not continuing to fall as they would have expected following their nonsense report, which was of such poor quality that I’m sure most if not all of the sophisticated investors saw straight through it for what it was.
There are millions and millions of shares shorted, while 80-90% of all the remaining shares are locked up by cornerstone and long term investors. All of those shorted shares have to be bought back, and the share price is starting to move against the shorters. It’s a classic short squeeze situation. I'm holding.
Wouldn't trade companies like this mate after reading that short report sketchy af
Super ride here today.
576 down to 468 and back up to 530 in a couple of hours.
Great trading stock - if your stomache can stick it :)
Looks good for trading, then! Possibly higher risk for a longer term hold.
Well I touched them last Wednesday and just sold a load with a 32% profit in 5 days.
Let the trend be your friend:)
gla
Wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole. Strange price action on no real news and very damaging concerning reports.
Yet the share price has almost doubled in little over a month.
I bought in at about £9 SP 18 months ago and was considering a top-up...that was until I read the link. Thanks for supplying this - the clincher almost made me laugh about both 'businesses' being on the same industrial park.
Although the amounts involved are relatively small, it does seem to raise some serious doubts about the company's integrity, especially one that has built much of its growth around acquisitions. If what Iceberg says is correct, we could see an SP drop larger than today's welcome rise. It raises the question of 'what else?'
On the plus side, operation gearing is low and the buying of Balta and reorganising it will add a decent chunk of EBITDA.
Maybe I'll steer clear for now.