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900-1500 bps on first results, Simply Put (Believer) or (Non Believer) and I make a list up, it only fun and gauges how people feel on this one !!!
Believer:-
Free-Money
Sting69
Handy111
Fjones40
Believer since 2014, even during the hiccups.
FJones, thanks for sharing your experience today. As I have often said, keep the faith, on here. I am a believer. Your comments of today has given me a boost as the waiting is getting hard to bear. Must remember SS and crew are working flat out, so we must be patient. But we are NEARLY THERE, UKOGers.
Believer
Jasper and Ghost, plus me are believers!!
JayKay,
You have been very quiet tonight, why?
JayKay.....So You must be non believer then?????
If yes..... please leave the church and let true believers pray in quietness!!!!.lol.
Just wanted to wish you well Phil. ????
Thank you Frank for your update.
And thank you as always John for your fantastic updates.
OYes Yes a believer
Sorry about the question marks. Not meant to be there. Still early.
GLA
Thanks Dinero! and again to all for the messages of support.
I am sure the Portland will flow, I’m sure it will exceed 6 tankers per day.
I am sure the Portland CPR will produce a recoverable reserves figure that will revalue the company.
Total believer in Portland
The kimmeridge , I know it flows vertically , HH3 will prove whether it can flow horizontally . It’s a weaker rock structure and SS needs to prove the completion method. Then a CPR. Failing that revert to vertical drills. One tanker per day per drill is still not to be scoffed at.
So a Believer in Kimmeridge oil , but work still required on the big CPR.
Believer
And blimey! Seadoc a believer! Well I'll be a monkeys uncle!
Tony,
I doubt even SS is 'sure' of a figure, and UKOG have been vague recently about the anticipated flow rate having gone from 720 to 1080bopd, to 2 to 3 times or more, to 2 to 3 times an unspecified vertical well flow rate, to significantly more than 362bopd, to the current significantly greater than the vertical well in the last operational RNS, again without specifying which vertical well rate.
Is SS playing a blinder, for some reason hiding what UKOG really think to fool the (apparently stupid) minority shareholders in HHDL, or keeping the SP down for mates rates? or is he trying to signal a lowering in expectation whilst performing the AIM dance of the seven veils releasing possible positives (muid weight indicating better than expected pressure depletion, possible increased reservoir quality) which require 'A comprehensive electric logging and extended well test ("EWT") programme [that] will further clarify these potentially positive outcomes'.
What really matters is what the final veil reveals.
Soon (imminently) we will see what the flow rates are so what further veils does SS have - initial rates can be very high - especially half hour maximums or any short term rate so maybe a few of those - and not forgetting the Kimmeridge has been shut in for a while so another possible initial maximum there.
But the final veil will be the long term stable flow from which there will be no hiding (though if it isn't as good as expected I expect 'heavily choked' and 'prudence' to be wheeled out in posts.
As you are guessing 6 tankers a day I suppose that means you expect nearly 1300bopd for the long term stable rate (though that would need a doubling of the OGA permitted production during the HH-2z ewt), and for a rerate based on a CPR of the Portland - just keeping to SS NPV and just for the Portland at HH to underpin the current SP anything over about 4.5mmbbls, so to double it 9mmbbls, but that might not be until Q2 2020 if it's after the 90 day ewt.
To be clear I have no idea what any of the rates will be - I just apply a healthy dose of cynicism to anything in RNS but at least patience is something that investors in UKOG have had to have, but belief is no substitute for hard figures.
Just quickly Phil I`m glad you got it quickly that is great to hear and noticed the SP is up today which bolds well for all in the future !!!
Believer
@seadoc
How does 900 bopd give you 0.43p?
Portland, @ 10million barrels recoverable...is worth about 400 Mill... We would have 86% of that. (320 Mill approx)
If the horizontal flows nicely, the recovery risk goes down...
100 bopd = 15m mcap roughly as a quick multiplier.
9 * 15 = 135m without the 200 bopd and without factoring in the 400m value of portland.
So how do you get an mcap of 30 odd million? (0. 43p)
While this post may seem tit for tat, it is actually a genuine question because I'm not 100% on the fag packet maths. Maybe you know more (I am relatively ignorant)
Toughiv, best to discount the ridiculous 0.43p valuation. The same person displayed his woeful accounting and calculating skills in overestimating Ukog cash spend in the six months account period released earlier this year by near!y £11 million. Also claimed at the time that an emergency placing would have to be announced to coincide with the release of the accounts as there was absolutely no cash left, "just to keep the lights on". There was £10.7 million in cash held by Ukog. Says it all.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-50682105
Wonder how the Swampy brigade will twist this one.
Thanks for all that information Seadoc. I'll definitely bear that in mind. Under those figures though, at 3500bopd UKOG should only be valued at 110m. That doesnt seem right to me as they'd be pulling 30 million a year out the ground for 25 years. Definitely food for thought though thanks