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As full production has been given the green light let's get some of the 8 tons of gas a day sold.
Get some of the 8 tons of gas a day sold…Wow what a ramping dreamer, if we are fortunate enough to win the appeal, then lucky enough to find some gas, the selling of it is years away, correct me if I am wrong?
Presumably you're referring to the ca. 8 tonnes a month of associated gas produced by HH-1.
Loxley awaits permission, needs to be drilled to discover if there's gas to produce - although UKOG don't have the funds to drill it.
As for Horse Hill the 8 tonnes translates to an average of about 10,000 cubic feet per day (NSTA figure for February). As the volume is low and the well is probably intermittently flowed to enable pressure recovery it has few options for use - not even sure they use it for anything on site except keeping the replacement small flare occupied.
Penguins
It is 8 Ksm3 per month being flared at HH a month. They have asked to flare 10 tonnes a day at Loxley which is about 125 times less than the amount they expect to eventually produce. It makes no sense at all to me.
SS has described Loxley as potentially the 2nd largest onshore gas field after Saltfleetby.
Until the closure of the nearby Theddlethorpe gas terminal, Saltfleetby was owned and operated by Wingas, a subsidiary of Gazprom.
"As of 2019, with sales over $120,000,000,000, it (Gazprom) was ranked as the largest publicly listed natural gas company in the world and the largest company in Russia by revenue".
But they are only going to flare Loxley for 7 days. Won't be that much gas. More gas will be generated on here imo.
Loxley flare; Initial flow testing is expected to be undertaken for a total duration of 7 days with the use of 2 x shrouded flares running each at a rate of 2.2mmscfd. Therefore, the total volume of incinerated gas within the IFT is expected to be 30.8mmscf.
Spec for HH flares says it all. HH Burner capacity: nom. 500kWth, min. 100 kWth
It wasn't acquired for the gas production:-
'WINGAS Storage UK Ltd acquired the asset in 2005 intending to convert the gas field into a gas storage facility, a project requiring a lengthy evaluation'
As a matter of interest, how much oil did he describe UKOG as being able to recover from Horsehill again?
Obviously I mean before he desperately tried to correct himself and then deny he'd ever said it (all BBC video evidence to the contrary).
That was to Oce.... oh, I can't even be bothered.
;)
"SS has described Loxley as potentially "
Would you care to list the other "potential" resources he's talked about since 2015 Ocelot?
Extract from the RNS of 21/09/20, Volumetric study confirms significant gas resource:
... Reported high case net PEDL234 GIIP and estimated high case recoverable resources are 76 bcf and 54 bcf, respectively.
As shown in Tables 1 and 2 below, approximately 78% of the overall Loxley gas accumulation's gross mean GIIP and recoverable gas resource of 63 bcf and 44 bcf respectively, are interpreted to lie within the Company's PEDL234 acreage.
In terms of recoverable gas resources, the calculated figures places Loxley as one of the largest gas accumulations discovered and flow tested in the UK onshore. If proven by future production, the calculated gross mean recoverable resources would place Loxley second after the Saltfleetby gas field, the UK onshore's largest gas field to date, which produced approximately 73 bcf.
These results further underline the Company's view that the 48 km(2) Loxley geological structure contains materially significant gas volumes, which in a success case of around 4-5 bcf/year, on an energy equivalent basis, could have the capacity to power around 200,000 homes per year ...
And yet that complete work of fiction fails to make the company website which has this to say;
"Loxley, Broadford Bridge, PEDL234 (UKOG 100%)
In April 2019 UKOG submitted a planning application for drilling of the Loxley-1 well, which is intended to appraise the potentially significant Godley Bridge Portland gas discovery, located in the northwest of the licence. Post period, in October 2019, a Loxley permit application was submitted to EA. The primary objective is to drill, core and test the centre or “crest” of the Portland gas accumulation. If the initial test is successful, we will drill and test a horizontal sidetrack, Loxley-1z, within the Portland and carry out an EWT to establish commercial viability. Post period, in November 2019, UKOG submitted a planning application to extend the existing Broadford Bridge planning approval by 24 months to March 2022. Also post period, OGA approved an amendment to the PEDL234 Retention Area work programme, wherein Loxley-1 is to be drilled by December 2021."
Even the CPR fails to impress. How many times have we seen companies pay someone to produce a report which is carefully worded in case it all goes to rats. Caveat emptor springs to mind.
Extract from SS's speech to SCC's planning committee of 27/11/20:
... As the second largest gas accumulation drilled and tested in the UK onshore, Loxley’s potential peak
gas supply would have an energy equivalent to power around 200,000 homes per year and provide
up to £30 million/year in gas sales to hydrogen manufacture and carbon capture plants, all of which
are likely to be situated in key industrial hubs, well outside of the Loxley rural area. Loxley could thus
be a materially significant future contributor to the local and Surrey-wide revenue base and
economy ...
https://www.ukogplc.com/ul/5fc1343a6ecea_SS_Loxley_speech_to_Surrey_CC_271120.pdf
Extracts from SS's speech to SCC's planning committee of 29/06/20:
... Should we prove commerciality, and we would know this within months, not years, then we believe
that this resource could potentially deliver, via hydrogen from reformulated natural gas, or simply via
transitional natural gas, the energy equivalent to heat around 100,000 households per year or to power
around 200,000 households per year with electricity. A potentially material project ...
Some might still argue we don’t need indigenous gas; indeed, CCCs projected 2050 gas demand has a
worryingly large 86% import dependency upon distant places, most of which have far less stringent
environmental and HSE compliance regimes than ours. That will cost Britain about £1 billion/year over
30 years.
Other than the obvious energy security and supply chain control issues, the main problems with long
distance imports is that their greenhouse gas footprints are markedly higher than indigenous gas,
which by nature is closer to the user, plus they make little contribution to UK GDP. From a net zero or
balance of payments perspective imports are not good ...
There is one further material consideration unique to Loxley; it is one of the few identified
developments that, in the success case, and with your support, can deliver these outcomes in the
timeframe required to make a real difference when the UK and Surrey needs it most ...
https://www.ukogplc.com/ul/SS%20Loxley%20Speech.pdf
Note: SS's 2 speeches to Surrey CC's planning committee of 29/06/20 and 27/11/20 are on the website under RNS & News, Other News.
Positive outcome on Loxley and this share price will materially re-rate imo.
Another copy and paste from Ocelot straight out of the SS jam tomorrow play book, I think any one that knows a bit about ukog and their timing schedule will realise that’s not going to happen, and when will people figure out that SS in no hurry, why would he, the longer he strings things out the longer he is in employment…
I don't think he mentioned the Bahamas in those speeches. Was that because he was talking in front of the legal profession and a Govt. Inspector?
Agreed Legal and with the lastest political talk in the press government minister as reaffirming how important domestic Gas and Oil is.
Planning officers all recommended Loxely for approval, so no reason not to push it through.
Only the NYMBY council blocked it. This is a nationally important project and the national policy supports it.
So the National government should push it through without further question.
Expecting that positive update any day now. :-)
Perhaps some posts on here should start with the following statements as amended.
"This announcement contains 'forward-looking statements' concerning the Company that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Generally, the words 'will', 'may', 'should', 'continue', 'believes', 'targets', 'plans', 'expects', 'aims', 'intends', 'anticipates' or similar expressions or negatives thereof identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. Many of these risks and uncertainties relate to factors that are beyond the Company's ability to control or estimate precisely. The Company cannot give any assurance that such forward-looking statements will prove to have been correct. The reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this announcement. The Company does not undertake any obligation to update or revise publicly any of the forward-looking statements set out herein, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except to the extent legally required.
Nothing contained herein shall be deemed to be a forecast, projection or estimate of the future financial performance of the Company."
lbug The whole stockmarkwt is based on future predictions.
Hear, hear!
If the market gets behind a company and its management, it can contribute very substantially to the achievement of those predictions.
Extract from SS's speech to SCC's planning committee of 27/11/20:
... As the second largest gas accumulation drilled and tested in the UK onshore, Loxley’s potential peak
gas supply would have an energy equivalent to power around 200,000 homes per year and provide
up to £30 million/year in gas sales to hydrogen manufacture and carbon capture plants, ...
----------------
Think it is relatively conservative to assume natural gas prices have multiplied 2.5 times since this speech was given.
I think the problem with SS speeches is no one believes him, he has indeed made many bold predictions over the years and has been caught out lying before, none of his fairytale estimates have been anywhere near the mark, he has no credibility, as the market reflects…
'As the second largest gas accumulation drilled and tested in the UK onshore'
Hmmm - that's debatable.
Godley Bridge-1 was drilled and tested some way to the west of Loxley. Whether it tested the 2nd largest acccumulation onshore UK depends entirely on whether UKOG's current mapping extending the structure from GB-1 across PEDL234 is correct - only to be found out after drilling. GB-1 tested at 1.44MMscf/d and currently the licence holder IGas is showing no signs of pursuing development despite the discovery being in their licence -although when UKOG announced their intention to drill IGas did suggest they would also drill, So far they have not submited a planning application to do so - I suspect they'll wisely wait to see what happens at Loxley.
Given the above statement SS will look pretty silly if Loxley is dry, or proves little gas - but then it wouldn't be the first time he hasn't delivered on his own hype.