Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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great post Mix! thanks
Hey GreyPanther - hope you are well buddy. Just a few thoughts from me.
You would need to understand how the contracts are put together. As far as I am aware any sales have to be agreed by all partners. So that tells me with Humber gone all partners are in agreement on a sale of the PEDL. Humber could have blocked a deal or looked for other conditions. We will not sell UJO at the moment. That is not the deal on the table. West Newton is the deal but we need to prove it first. All down to West Newton B1.
Also that AA Rating was part of a pre-req imho. We've never got that before.. ever. Also, I know the costs to develop that PEDL over 20 years and while their might be great upside in profit (yet to be proved on B1) it would take a major or at least and operator well bigger then the 3 partners to develop it. I was the first to call a flip (high 5 me lmao) and I'm betting the house thats what we will do and that the conversations have been had. DB said done and dusted by Christmas or nearly.. that's a flip to me. So watch this motor really quickly as that drill bit turns. If it comes good.. no stopping it. I've put in the 4 stages of SP rise... we are in stage 1 - we'll move to stage 2 as Rig arrives.. Stage 3 on TD - and then Stage 4 - the money show on rumours of Majors and prices.
Lastly what I would say is that honestly.. I would have taken 1p a long time ago... now I'd gladly take 2p.. if we got 3p I'd be blown away.. but these are just perceived guesses.. and indeed guesses by others. No one knows. You could, if you where well into oil exploration, take the volumetric data, porosities and formations types, recoverable rates and there is a formula to work out what you could extract. Take out the operation costs.. multiply by the cost of a barrel... divide by the number of shares on issue and bingo.. look at you... you've just worked out the value add to the SP. Ok.. not the exact formula but it can be done.
However, that would be fine if we where going to be the operator which we are not. It would have to be reduced if we farmed out to an operator to take out their costs and profit... which we are not. So we are are selling potential and risk to a major based on B1 results... so that means its a discount. We sell at a discounted price and leave enough fat in there for the major to make it worth their while. However I do believe it could be huge. I believe Rathlin, RDB and UJO have confidence on a result in WN B1. The gas is there. We need to prove it extends and remember .. oil is the bonus.
Good luck all.. it will be a few exciting weeks and I'll be shi tt in it
ATB Mix -- 5p or bust ;-)
Yes RNS Translator.. check out Wessex - I was in at quarter of a penny pre-flow. 0.25p
We floated on PLUS at around 1.75.. and then moved to AIM. If you think 16% isnt much, we had half of a 2.5% claim with Northern Petroleum in the Zaedyus oil discovery off the coast of South America. Total was one of the big players then. So that meant we had exactly 1.25%. -(need to check out some of the float prices but sure it was 1.75)
Dave built the company up and it had potential off the back of that drill but huge risk. Things looked good and he secured a deal which Fred Dicker shook hand on for 10p... I sold bank on 10p. Happy days. Dicker though he was bigger than that and renegaded on the deal. Dave was ripping and resigned from the company. The rest is history. Look at the share price 3 months after Dave left.
So if you are asking has Dave done this before... to me he has big time. Thats why I believe the ducks are lined up for West Newton. Dave took 2 years to get the West Newton slice and you can rest assured that he's spent the time working with Majors on a flip. I was in pre-float- It was a gamble as Rathlin had been working on it for a while and spend considerable cash on it. Reabold and Connaught will want their payday to. Humber was taken out so the other 3 partners could all sell it together as one asset. We will not sell 16%. It will be sold as a hole... period... because you would need an operator and how do you do that commercially selling your slice. Also the partners need to agree to your sale. Thats how the contract is constructed otherwise Humber would have sold their slice a long time ago.
Like I said... Dave Bramhill.... smarter than the average bear BOo Boo ;-)
GLA Mix - and yes.. always do your own research or be around as long to remember it all lol
FYI - Wessex
https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/33918/wessex-exploration-shares-soar-on-71-mln-total-bid-approach--40423.html
:-) hey lets prove it up 1st, looking good,
ps, rbd would be wise to talk to db if any offer came in, ujo have a rather good and interesting team !!! db would be an asset in any meetings regarding a deal
greypanther, really? if a big boy wanted it they would take all of wn 100% as they would not want the 16.666 % or whatever to be sold to another major. !
If someone buys out RBD’s stake in WN and not UJO and this someone develops a work programme that means the costs are prohibitive for UJO and they would then have to do a Humber either sell their stake or lose it is nonsense.
If this is the case we would first have to acknowledge WN as a huge success, secondly there would be other interested parties other than the buyer of RBD and most important of all Bramhill has already said In interviews UJO’s stake in WN will be sold to one of the bigger fish once it’s proved up.
why don't you ring him up and f....ask him or do your own research. All you've done is come on this bb with negative posts designed to stir the pot-well and truly filtered.
has David ever sold anything before?
You telling me David isn't already a few steps ahead here GreyPanther ?
I don't think DB ujo would have any choice. If a buyer came along they would deal primarily with the principal holder/operator and ujo would really need to accept the agreed offer. Although I'm sure the deal agreed would be acceptable to all key parties. Imo
I think it highly unlikely that ujo would be able to hold on to their stake or demand a higher price.
Hello Heid. I'm sure you're right, and I too think UJO itself won't be bought out for its WN interest. That's in part because it's Mr B's child,and he probably would not want to let the whole company go. But, regarding WN itself, it seems quite likely to me that any would be purchaser would first approach RBD and / or Rathln with an offer, more likely a proposal and, if the price was interesting, UJO would be invited to be part of the same deal. What would not be wise, IMHO, would be for RBD and Rathln to sell out to a presumably much larger company, but leave UJO with a minority 16.665% interest. The Newco would presumably be in a position to outspend UJO in either an appraisal or a development programme. This could well leave UJO in the same difficult financial position that Humber found themselves in.