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Trek Madone, I know you mean well and I know from your previous posts that you are a genuine holder here, but I bought in at over 1.10 (1.11 in fact) about 6 months ago and honestly you don't have to feel really sorry for me. I believe this is a good company and with the right luck will be making good money in 2 to 3 years time. The current share price doesn't concern me at all whether it's 0.85 or 0.90 or even 0.70. Yes PB has made some mistakes in the last 6 months but in the overall picture they are minor. Anybody who invests here should know by now that Royston etc carry risk but if things go to plan then in a couple of years time the share price should be a lot higher. If people just want to make a quick buck then they should stop squealing and maybe instead invest their money on the horses, rather than a small O&G company operating in a foreign country. Like the poster said below there will be many bumps in the road which is hardly surprising in the circumstances. Just my take on things.
I am talking about you Joey, what do you think he can do to get things moving faster. Who is putting in the pipework, not us, he has delivered on everything else as far as l am concerned. Since he is sitting on a million shares, he is as ****ed off as you and me if you are invested. Why the sudden concern in cashflow impairing price, now. This is a dead stock, until the big wells come on line and the wall of cash starts to flow. So it goes up 40% in a day, big deal.
Joey if your a short term trader then you will lose here, to many bumps in road and covid will note release its grip.
If people think l am negative on the word dead stock, the two blue buys are mine.
People talk about delivery with Covid and what's going on in Trinidad. In this country ten days to get a telephone reply, DVLA two months to reply too a letter. If you want delivery invest in Amazon, you get next day. Just saying.
I really feel sorry for investors that bought in at over say £1.10. It really doesn’t matter what is said it’s just painful being red. I topped up at 102, 97 an 85 and if it helps should it go sub 75 I have (for me) a significant position in another company to flip into here as the risk reward balance tips in favour of TXP, massively!
I have to crystallise holdings very soon to help one of my children get on the ladder. We are so blessed to be able to help out as I started with very little but TXP will not be a casualty of that decision. You see all that is needed here is time. A few years and £10 imo will come.
I will then be in a position to help more than my own kids! Just a little faith and patience.
The hook up will come, the expo will happen. IMO this share is a rare hold and hug come good!
Good luck with your investments,
Trek
No but maybe you have an agenda?
First post I see.
You are wrong on the new drill being a significant burden as it’s going to be “Run in” as it were drilling 4 short holes in the legacy area to make sure it’s running well and the local crews are trained in a low challenges environment.
All four wells will be quickly hooked up via the existing pipes with permits in place. And then bank financed if felt necessary.
Why four wholes on the legacy area? Well that’s likely to make the licence extension agreement there are lot easier.
So cash generative not the other way around.
The first deep exploration hole in 2022 will cost cashflow obviously.
Totally agree on the need for developing a sense of urgency. The island and new energy minister want the gas so let's hope the NGC and government start to facilitate this urgency. Regarding the use of the new rig, given the target depth, Kraken alone might use up c.90 days of the drill time in the first year. Plus it's expected to drill a few oil wells in the Western fields to test it out following arrival later this year.
PB being sensible with debt which is why he's said he'll only use it for development (which should relatively quickly lead to cashflow) and not exploration. Once the Casc development plan is approved by government and the main pipeline is in place the development well should be much quicker to get producing after drilling. Once momentum builds on Casc development production and cashflow could ramp up quite quickly if each well averages 4-5kboepd like the two existing Casc wells. And as experience of the team builds they will get quicker too. Just need to show the market what's coming by getting the production party started...... quickly!!
Good points for sure. But they cannot wait very much longer to accelerate drilling. The Canadian rig is coming in September. That is costing a million just to get it to Trinidad - PLUS there is a commitment to drill 120 days a year for next three years. That means minimum of 150 drilling days by end of 2022. Now in Canada or any other reasonable place you can drill a lot of wells (especially development wells) in 150 drilling days. And they are going to have to pay those charges no matter what. They have to start feeling a sense of urgency to ramp it up. And I for one am totally uncomfortable with any John Wright entity taking on debt. When you owe people money bad things can happen, some of them out of your control.
It is very frustrating Scott. However, PB has stated several times they will postpone capex (e.g. Drills) where necessary to allow them to fund from cashflow. PB has also suggested they'll take on debt (which the lenders are apparently keen to offer) to fund development (e.g. Cascadura we'll-head production infrastructure and maybe development wells), but not explo. Despite the delays I think Coho will start producing gas and cash this year which will ensure opex costs are covered. I agree Casc production is unlikely to start until Q1 or maybe even H1 2022 so any explo will not re-start until probably H2 2022. We might just see one explo well in Ortoire in 2022 (Kraken?) and maybe one or two development wells on Casc (which could take production to >15kboepd by end of 2022), so it looks like maybe 2023 before production cashflow is sufficient to fund major explo again So much potential here, but it's going to be a test of patience. Let's hope a commercial Royston discovery is secured to recover the positivity this deserves. PB has also said he'll share the development plan for Casc in Sept/Oct so that should build some excitement too. H2 has the potential to deliver several positive catalysts for SP recovery. But it's been very painful holding recently.
TXP needs a lot of cash next year (new Canadian rig with 120 day commitment, potential big development program at Cascadura, significant increase in operating expenses), and that will be a problem only because of logistics. We have the product ready to ship (gas at Coho and two Cascadura wells). We have a confirmed buyer with no credit risk (NGC). We cannot get the product to the buyer. We have seen the Ortoire block map for several years highlighting the close proximity of major pipelines. The country of Trinidad has had oil and gas production as a major part of its economy for over 100 years. It is just hard to understand.
It is a bit like a wine producer with thousands of bottles of wine in the warehouse, a Costco sales agreement (not top dollar but secure payment), and no trucks to ship the bottles. Meanwhile they have ongoing cash needs for payroll and other expenses, and they also want to invest to grow production next year. They would struggle mightily.
TXP will also be struggling for cash next year but only because of logistics. As I said we have the product ready to ship (gas at Coho and two Cascadura wells). We have a confirmed buyer with no credit risk (NGC). We cannot get the product to the buyer despite close proximity of major pipelines and by all indications a highly motivated buyer.
Anyway I will open a good bottle of something when we stop this grinding downtrend and start establishing a new uptrend. It will take some kind of catalyst. Big discovery at Royston might be required for reversal. Cruse test won’t help. Hooking up Coho is so anticlimactic at this point that it won’t have any impact. Hooking up Cascadura well will drag on to first half of next year. Development wells at Cascadura will be mid-2022. The next three exploration wells (including the Norwegian monster Kraken) will be late 2022 at best. Hook-up of Royston discovery well (if there is a discovery) and any Royston development wells will probably stretch into early 2023. Any potential to produce from Kraken (if a real monster) will be end of 2023 or later. So lots of exciting potential ahead. And lots of expenses.
They need a wall of cash. Logistics, logistics, logistics.