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Why did Gupta not complete on the bank sale? Either there's some more conditionality, or he doesn't have the wonga.
K3VMC - you are very right. It's more than that, since there are many development costs which could go, but will not, since the business is about growth.
Shortsupply, you make a good point there. Why not take it up with David Williams or Rick Hurwitz? I'm holding out way past December. They've spent millions on getting the system to the stage where they can increase revenue without increasing costs as before, so I think they can spring the ebitda positive news at will now.
Yesterday's news didn't move the needle much. Question is now, do I hold out until December's results? I have an issue with the inconsistencies in their reporting. Its not the numbers, but the metrics they choose change. Sometimes we get figures on cancelations, other times its stopped transacting, one report we'll get a breakout of numbers between the different solutions, other times its high level numbers. What are the chances they will start reporting on each solution with all of the below? Active in community of solution Stopped transacting in period Cancelled in period New accounts added Dipping in and out of metrics does smell like window dressing. To my earlier post, if we have this information we will have a lot clearer picture on whats going. If several thousand free suppliers cancel, who really cares. But if they are subscription suppliers thats a big issue. Can't even back calculate this as a cancelled annual subscription wouldn't show up as a hole until next year's report.
"Tungsten expects to provide the next update on its financial and operating performance with the announcement of its Interim Results for the six months ended 31 October 2016, which it intends to disclose a day earlier than previously indicated on 14 December 2016".
EBITDA+ next.
All change in control regulatory approvals have been satisfied and the transaction is approved. £3.95m received in part payment of the premium with rest to follow by 21st Dec 2016.
Announcement on the bank sale published now, so lets hope this does get the share price moving on up. Next business update due in less than a month may otherwise be the next potential boost - I hope!!
break duly granted, have a great holiday.
Ah, Spikeyj, give me a break. 1 Dyslexic. 2 Rubbish eyesight. 3 Rubbish reading specs from Tesco. Sat on the prescription ones. 4 On holiday, so a little relaxed. 5 Posting on an iPhone. 6 If we aren't making big money in 2027, I'll expect a ticking off.
"H1 2027"? ... patient investing
Thanks K3VMC & BS76 - facts & reasoned opinions. In particular, BS76 (and andrewdbl's) comments here and over on advfn are really informative in pulling out the salient points from the financial statements - thanks and keep the comments coming. Bottom line for me is that: - old management (big ideas and little idea on delivery) and new management (realistic and defined strategy, delivering what they say) should not be confused - Rick Hurwitz has done a great job turning this round - monthly EBITDA positive in 2017 - company has more than enough cash/finance to get to profitability - redefined TEP offering (this time being run by someone who knows what they're doing) due to provide MATERIAL revenue from 2018 - BOD and NED have made recent significant share purchases - possible uplift in figures if analytics takes off This being AIM the short-term SP could go anywhere for now but talk of 'going to zero' and 'not viable' is garbage IMO. The 'pump and dump' scenario of a few years ago (PS in particular changing his mind from one extreme to the other in a matter of weeks and ever since taking every opportunity to deride the company - 'the lady doth protest too much methinks') could well happen in reverse now. When the company turns EBITDA+ and the financing taps are opened the SP will not be 50p. GLA.
Hopefully the news drought will end very soon as we have just completed the first half of the year so should be due a trading update in the next couple of weeks. When this comes out we can better judge the progress made; I would like to see; 1. Continued progress with increased revenue from renewals to uplift captured revenue 2. Some large new buyers - at least 5 or 6 deals won (fed up with hearing about 'strong pipeline') 3. A significant uplift in the invoice financing numbers 4. Some indication the the FX deal has some traction / positive feedback from suppliers 5. Where analytics has got too - hopefully some proper paying users 6. The bank sale complete
@Shortsupply You should start reading half-yearly and full-yearly reports. I suppose those are bit more informative than the website. I wasn't talking about IDC service. First from 2015 full year update "During the year, 28,000 suppliers were added to the Network, while 18,000 suppliers that transact mostly in paper invoices ceased transacting over the Network, as we focused on transitioning the Network away from non e-I Invoicing suppliers. As a result, at the end of the financial year the Network had 181,000 suppliers, an increase of 7.7% over the previous year." from 2016 full year update "A total of 1,000 new Integrated and 24,500 new Web Form suppliers were added to the network during the period. Around 3,500 supplier accounts were closed, the majority of which had stopped trading with our buyer customers. The net impact of these changes was that the total number of suppliers increased 12% to 203,000." Supplier numbers FY14: 171,000 FY15: 181,000 Fy16: 203,000 Net added in 2 years => 32000 (New one => 53500 and left=> 21500) If I believe your assumption that paid supplier's has cancelled, revenue should have gone down from 2016 full year update "Suppliers· Revenue of £15.8 million (FY15: £13.1 million), split 80% Integrated suppliers and 20% Web Form suppliers (FY15: split of 86%/14%)." Supplier revenue numbers FY15: £13.1m FY16: £15.8m And bit more for your info:- Tungsten got two types of supplier's - Web Form suppliers (receives 52 free transactions per year, with a higher per-transaction fee charged above that level) Integrated Suppliers (pays around 1000usd or 1000gbp based on region) Tungsten has around 12,500 integrated supplier's. Integrated Suppliers revenue is about 50% of total(even more than buyers) One good news In 2015 half yearly report " Signed nearly 500 new integrated supplier customers worth c.£0.5m in first year revenues and a further 13,000 web form suppliers" and in latest update in September 2016 " Suppliers were added to Tungsten Network at an encouraging pace, including adding double the number of Integrated Solution suppliers compared with the same period in the prior year. " So we are expecting around 1000 in 6 months compare to 1000 in the last financial year. And Last thing- Tungsten can go Tradeshift way and keep inactive suppliers. Tradeshift in last 3 years has gone from 500,000 suppliers to 800,000 suppliers and Tungsten has gone from 171,000 to 203,000 In Alexa's supplier portal world ranking- Tungsten has over taken Tradeshift Ranking on 31st Dec 2015 Ariba - 25,143 Tradeshift - 129,113 Tungsten-network - 152,855 Taulia - 187,495 Basware - 321,161 and on 30th June 2016 Ariba => 14,500 Tungsten-network => 103,868 Tradeshift => 117,998 Taulia => 127,659 Basware => 179,242
Shortsupply "You've become too emotionally attached, you're ignoring all the warning signs and only pay attention to anything that supports your positive hypothesis. One way ticket to getting burnt." I don't think I am. I spent my working life designing and writing financial IT systems, most of it running my own software firm. OB10 was way ahead of its time. I understand why and where it went wrong technically and in terms of sales and marketing. I understand why it wasn't scaleable, why global brands wanted to use its services and why it was loss making. It needed Mr Hurwitz to come in and restructure the company, its service platform, pricing structure and customer relations. All in place now, so time to sell, sell, sell. I see and understand all this. I don't expect many others to do the same. "Did you see a retraction statement from HMRC for their 'erroneous' computer error that could potentially destroy a company's reputation? Or a very rapid rescinding of the winding up order?" A retraction from HMRC? You expected that? Tung argued a tax position, now paid. A mild breeze in a herb infused receptacle. "It's hard to respect a group of people who have failed epically and cost me and many other so much money in the process. New management. Old management lose you money? Maybe just get over it. Don't like what the new management has done with the business? I can't imagine how you can fault that, but I'm sure you will give it a good go. "Its their cash position not full year liabilities. So if the bank sale hasn't gone through by reporting time they will want to show they've got plenty in the bank." They have a fallback position of £10m revolving credit. More than enough to see them break through to profit. "The company is soon to have half its market cap value as cash in the bank and the share price is still dropping. There must be a good reason for this." The old shorters maxim. Trotting that out confirms anything one can assume from your handle. "Apart from the paid analyst, there's not a single article that has been positive about this company for over 18 months." Really? Mr Hurwitz got column inches when he started the business turnaround. You can hardly expect a regular newsflash that he is still doing the same thing. That is not news. "There comes a time when we all have to stop doubling down, accept our losses and that we got it wrong." My average is 57p. I started buying about 70p and bought all the way down to 46p. When it gets shorted to mid fifties, I buy a few to trade late 50s, early 60s. May as well make a few quid while the shorters fiddle around. Big money will arrive in H1 2027, IMO. Very happy with my core holding. ATB
@K3 You've become too emotionally attached, you're ignoring all the warning signs and only pay attention to anything that supports your positive hypothesis. One way ticket to getting burnt. Did you see a retraction statement from HMRC for their 'erroneous' computer error that could potentially destroy a company's reputation? Or a very rapid rescinding of the winding up order? It's hard to respect a group of people who have failed epically and cost me and many other so much money in the process. Its their cash position not full year liabilities. So if the bank sale hasn't gone through by reporting time they will want to show they've got plenty in the bank. The company is soon to have half its market cap value as cash in the bank and the share price is still dropping. There must be a good reason for this. Apart from the paid analyst, there's not a single article that has been positive about this company for over 18 months. There comes a time when we all have to stop doubling down, accept our losses and that we got it wrong. @BS I can only go off what their website says. There is a presentation that talks about their IDC service. Which looks to me like outsourcing accounts payable for manual invoice processing. TUNG don't have a supplier targeted paper processing solution. Its something the buyer takes, not suppliers. So cancelled accounts can't be for paper processing. Plus, if they weren't subscription accounts that cancelled, I'm sure TUNG would make it crystal clear that they weren't.
"After reading the annual report I'm giving up on TUNG. Net number of buyers hasn’t gone up. 3,500 suppliers canceled, you have to assume they are subscription ones as the other service is free, therefore nothing to cancel? They reported adding 1,000 subscription suppliers in the same period." If you have read any Tung's half yearly or full result you would have known that they are been moving away from paper based invoices for the last 3 years. Most of supplier's using paper invoices are either moved to e-invoicing or account closed.
Shortsupply "I'm inclined to agree or go one further and speculate that they were deliberately putting off paying until the half year close to make the books look better?" You obviously have little respect for the bod, since you ascribe barrow-boy mentality to their accounting practices. Even if they had changed their names from Derrick and Rodney by deed poll, this makes little sense, since the tax liability must be accounted for as "Creditors due within 12 months". "It back fired and the FD could have been lent on to make a public display of confidence?" No. Seriously, these are adults, running an international business serving the biggest brands on the planet. "It can't be of inside knowledge of the bank sale as that would be insider trading." Everyone knows the bank is being sold. The only thing we don't know is the date that the BOE signs it off. I'm inclined to use Occam's razor. They said that they disputed the amount of tax. I dispute my tax EVERY year. They then agreed the amount of tax and a date by which it should be paid.HMRC got the date wrong and jumped the gun. No need for a more complicated explanation. As for your conclusion, whether based on poor accounting knowledge or not, that's your prerogative. Best of luck.
Gl I took an hit on this one also a while back, not going anywhere in a hurry don't trust it but I keep an eye on it just incase hope is not to much.
I'm inclined to agree or go one further and speculate that they were deliberately putting off paying until the half year close to make the books look better? It back fired and the FD could have been lent on to make a public display of confidence? It can't be of inside knowledge of the bank sale as that would be insider trading. After reading the annual report I'm giving up on TUNG. Net number of buyers hasn’t gone up. 3,500 suppliers canceled, you have to assume they are subscription ones as the other service is free, therefore nothing to cancel? They reported adding 1,000 subscription suppliers in the same period. The recent analyst report was uninspiring and shows painfully slow growth projections. Glassdoor reviews (which are always a great insight into a company) are alarming. Far too much smoke here for my liking. I’ll hold until the bank sale goes through. We should get a little bump from that and then I’m cutting my losses. It would take a miracle to get even close to where I originally bought in!
I'll have some. My view is that shorters are there to get stuff cheap. May as well take advantage of their sterling work. Tung can flip to ebitda at a time of their choice. Happy to buy low and wait.
I'll have some. My view is that shorters are there to get stuff cheap. May as well take advantage of their sterling work. Tung can flip to ebitda at a time of their choice. Happy to buy low and wait.
A slightly more Machiavellian view: The FD felt honour bound to show confidence in the company after his department failed to pay HMRC resulting in the issuance of a winding up order - which knocks confidence in any share. With only three days between both events it's a possibility. But it also coincided with (same day) with the Bank trading name change in prep for the sale to the Gupta family ....., giving the company access to approx £25 M in free capital in the next week or so Sitting on the outside it is difficult to second guess the true underlying reason......
Everyone has an incentive, longs go long, shorts go short. Paul is just part of the sharepuppy brigade, who essentially are high net worth investors, banking executives and loan sharks in suits. Do you think that group are going to be particularly fond of a fintech that threatens their highly profitable banking FX conversion and business loans?
Well said chilt!