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The aggregates business I think has the potential to exceed the returns we will see from the tin . This coupled with the price inflation we're seeing for these metal concentrates suggests that the prior NPV is now substantially under estimated.
All very positive stuff.
Looks to me the EA approval is imminent, and is already factored in the share price.
Https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/tin-price?op=1
The biggest expenditure they face in modifying and extending the plant is to do with sound mitigation - they mention holed baffles. I'm not 100% certain but have a look in the updated feasibility study - I think its mentioned in there. ATB
Thank you for your reply Croissant. I do feel the biggest issue in this case is going to be noise pollution. The way they're burning through funds will become an issue if this is prolonged further.
Https://www.gov.uk/government/news/final-consultation-on-permit-for-hemerdon-tungsten-mine
Ultimately, if following this consultation and the rejection of any subsequent appeals, the permit is refused or withdrawn, then yes its over. That will be the case for the lifetime of the project.
However, the EA are "minded" to grant the permit. So unless someone can convince them otherwise , the permit will get issued. This is a very positive development for the project. Any worthy objections raised in this final consultation phase might cause a delay. The company will get a chance to respond and if necessary accommodate changes to address these late stage concerns. All of that wrangling is going to go on after the submission deadline and might take some time to clear, so don't expect a quick decision after the 7th.
As per their own assessment the biggest risks the project faces are from permitting (soon to be addressed), funding (CLNs onboard till Jan 2025, and look at the recent director hires for broader financial market access) and macro-economic risks outside of their control (eg energy price spikes etc).
This looks very promising to me. Outside of geopolitical risks and government based policy lunacy I think this is a winner and I'm investing accordingly. This isn't investment advice its what I'm doing. So DYOR, because if you do you'll find a very interesting story which goes back quite a few years and you'll see that that rather large hole in the ground has cost some investors a great deal of money. Not for the faint hearted. ATB
At present we're waiting for the all clear from the environment agency to go forward. Can somebody tell me if the EA refuses? Is it game over?
Ok VIS cheers,didnt know they had a recovery rate for the upgraded plant,
i hope it was over 50% minimum.
gla
Well my bottom line is i think this will work. The deeper I dig into the project and look at the people who took this out of receivership, the more confident i am that they can and will operate this successfully. Obviously there'll be set backs and likely some slippage on the timeliness, but the prior failure was a different team. Their loss is our gain.
Theres over £200million prior capex which TW does not have to shell out. Anyway as the video outlined thieres a series of hurdles to overcome. Lets take it a step at a time . EA permits first (Step9). ATB
Well if that's right VIS that's great news, what's the source though? I'm pretty deep into this now and they make clear what they're doing. The FS update will be definitive on time line and sequence. Hopefully we won't have to wait too long. ATB
Croissant
My understanding of the new plan is different to yours. Whereas the plan had been to ramp up slowly over several years, I think they are now aiming to go for a much quicker ramp up.
Actually the previous effort did work, finally in the company's last week or two giving the recovery rates targeted. Unfortunately the news came too late to raise the necessary finance and the company went bust.
This time around there will also be a number of improvements to the flow sheet................. assuming the permit is granted by the EA.
Croissant
the bottom line on here is
the mining engineeers have to make a processing plant,that is capable of separating the dreaded clay,from the tungsten orebody and get the recovery rates,back to where they should.
most thought,the last attempt,would work,but obviously not the case
for some reason,tungsten mining,isnt an easy concept.
gla
Great video. Nice find. Just shows how far along this project is. Pretty unique. However, its 5 yrs to full ramp up from here. So, this is definitely a buy and hold. Also I would expect a substantial upward revision to the NPV due to the aggregates business
Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDFAKWTVe8k
the developement stage,is a tough time,for any pre producer.
New5, if there was no traders there would be no markets. After all that's what creates markets.
This needs no help from traders, it will get to where it belongs in time.
I think I will keep my powder dry for now and see where this is going. Not looking very strong at the moment. Good luck all invested here.
If you read the latest half year accounts they think there's still £80M which needs to be pushed in before production starts.
They won't be producing anything for another 2 years yet, so just cash burn until then. I believe they'll be an opportunity to buy well below a penny before then. Just my opinion.
The SP appears to be falling off a cliff again this week after the earlier bounce. I might be tempted to buy at 2.75p sooner rather than later. Hopefully for you guys it won't reach 1.5p like it was last month.
@LB - if you read the wording from the D&C EA about the MPF permit their position is now "minded" to grant the permit unless convinced otherwise. As this is the 3rd and final round of consultation my opinion is that the permit will be granted. ATB
Thank you lovelyboy for your advice, much appreciated. Good luck.