Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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Ladies and Gentlemen, FS2 was announced in July 2022 and wasn't published until Jan 2023. Hopefully, they'll be able to shorten the timescale by a couple of months with FS3, but even that takes us almost into Oct.
If you're minded to keep an eye out for developments, confirmed re-hires (although unlikely this side of the FS3 publication and/or the future financing round) would be good news.
Finally a broad request for information, if I may: Do you know if there is anything publicly available from the Mining Conference, yet? (Slides , reports, photos, press etc) That AI core data/ reserve analysis would be a great find.
ATB
Crossiant
No sour grapes and I am teatolder
Just sad to see poor metallurgical design giving these heavy losses and as such little chance of being successful and not operating in a necessary low operating cost to be competive with other projects coming on line
Ian Gordon Hall Dun
That's an interesting tone, Ian. It seems to have the subtle odour of sour grapes attached. Or maybe its one glass of wine too many. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and despite you seemingly being dead set against this project, I'm going to assume it's that you care deeply about the design and want better for all concerned.
If that's the case you'll have to try for the umpteenth time to persuade TWL that your design is the right one. You gave it a good try with the EA, but it looks like they weren't interested either. What you think the people who are talking about the project in this space, will be able to do about it, ?
One final point the losses from the process circuit are contained in the slimes that get deposited in the MWF. Their plan is to mine out the MWF once the ore resource has been exhausted and to recover those loses in entirety, then. Although up front cash flow is reduced the overall NPV will be unchanged. It would be better to have a better cash flow but for whatever reason your design is not being taken up. You need to feed this back to TWL or let it go.
Come on Croissant wake up and smell that wonderful aroma of freshly roasted coffee beans!
Any Geotek BoxScan AI move to optimise TUN reserves by any % (10%?) is welcome to maximise NPV but why throw away 45% of your W and Sn into your tailings Get your mineral process circuit sorted to maximise NPV - you can even run AI or NPV algorithm to show the impact!
@LB - yes I agree. I'd be very interested to see what an AI analysis of the core data has done to the reserve estimates. Again if they can squeeze out more than 10% to the NPV I'll be impressed, but with this new tech who knows what they'll find. ATB
Waiting 24 hrs for a small trade on trading 212 also. Anyone know why?
Can get a quote for 10ks worth on IG at 5.5
My buy order has been sitting there for over 24 hours on Trading 212.
Very frustrating.
Probably go through when the price goes up to 6.5 😩
Must be too many shares available cant even sell a small amount
Hi croissant.
I'm local but I wasn't free for the TW site visit. Would have loved to go and walk round. It was the same story for last year's conference too😢
I suspect this Geotek work is for FS3. 0. Looks like clever tech.
ATB LB
@LB - it might be useful to see if we can get a copy of that - nothing I could see online atm.
Are you local. Did you go?
ATB
This was reposted by James Mc F earlier today. Looks like there has been some core analysis done by Geotek.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/samuel-carr-751b01139_the-uk-mining-conference-in-cornwall-begins-activity-7206658135795642368-mtMu?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
ATB LB
I do like to see the questions over the share price being stagnant, maybe we could add the why’s across the rest of the market as well, why is easyJet so low and Tesla so high.
Some of this will come down to if the project is trendy enough to gather momentum with respect to SP, something zesty might come out of the conference to help gain attention either that or the US banning Chinese imports and list the resource.
Oh btw fwiw I think Stobie will likely be appointed the new CEO. We are in a bean counting phase atm - like NG, Stobie is the right man, in the right place at the right time. ATB
@New5 - you can definitely add that to the list, new CEO. Nice one.
Price action does appear a little odd. Its disquieting. Whatever is at play we can say it's a risk off issue. We can speculate, but lets just stick to what we know.
Slow burn.
ATB
Hi Croissant. I was just interested to see any adjustments.
As you say more to this than the permit. A new CEO will probably make a big difference and until then i don't anticipate much in they way of a price boost. Slow burn, it just feels a little odd.
ATB
I spoke directly to the EA and confirmed that its virtually the same except for minor revisions to the audible sound reporting times. So if you get a copy of the draft permit from March its almost word for word with that.
This is not down to the permit. As I said we're now in the hands of the bean counters. We're not clear of that risk just yet. Maybe we will see another boost.
The main events ahead are:
1) end of the CLN default
2) securing tranche E
3) issuing the FS3.0
4) completion of the funding round.
Items 1, 2 and 3 could all trigger a price hike. The last surge occurred with the draft permit followed by tranche d. Maybe we need one more of the above to trigger a boost.
However, there's more to the story than that permit. Think.
ATB
Has anyone managed to see the wording of the permit awarded? I have been unable to find it.
I must admit, I was expecting this to rise in a similar way as it did in March when the draft permit was announced. I’m just using this as an opportunity to buy more while the price is still low because surely the only way is up pretty soon…..?
We're not out of the woods yet, Gingy.
Is that it now, all the excitement over? Well that was disappointing!
@croissant
Yes I think we’re all looking forward to FS 3.0. I really hope we get a term sheet teaser beforehand with how they plan to fund this, would help ramp up the price a little more.
I’ve followed this project since the Wolf days, mining in the UK is bl**dy hard…hence my beaten down scepticism ha but fwiw your positivity is starting to rub off…!
@TUNX - I mention the first CLN conversion as a guide to future actions. I wasn't suggesting they were linked to the CLNs. Those shares converted at 30p each. This second group of CLNs has a conversion at 3p - very different, showing just how vulnerable the company has become.
Once someone holds 30% share capital in a publicly traded company, as I understand it that triggers a takeover. The latest CLN conditions prevent a 30% holding. Baker Steel holds 15% of the current share capital and are part of the CLN holders (referenced in the RNS somewhere) (BTW if you're interested it would be a worthwhile exercise to find out exactly who those CLN holders are.) (https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TUNGSTEN-WEST-PLC-128506367/company/).
There's likely two CLN holder non-execs on the Board, so they're keeping a close eye on things (whoever They are). Baker Steel have deep pockets and know all the right people to make this project a success. The revised FS3.0 will show everyone the difference between the market cap and the actual value. Without disturbing the share price at all, they can acquire a large tranche of shares at a great price on CLN conversion. Even after todays bump we're trading at a 95% discount to the FS2.0 NPV.
Sure there's risk, but it's now bean related rather than feasibility or permitting. The plant can be built and run. The clay issue is now in the rear view mirror. Noise (LFN and audible) and other environmental issues well managed. W and Sn loses minimised and reserves maximised. WOLF were exploiting the reserves - its primed for proper exploitation. External geopolitical risk is the greatest risk the project faces imo but even this could be positive for the share price action.
Baker Steel has plenty of beans, a consortium of bigger players would have lots and lots of beans. Looks ripe for the picking to me.
ATB
PS I appreciate your comments, mate. Scepticism is the healthy counter to optimism. As a fundamental investor I aim for realism, but we can only go off the information we have and apply a good dose of common sense to guide our actions. Now we have the permit I think the project has finally broken this decade long troubled streak and the flight path for the project is upwards.
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@Gingy - defo more than where we are now. How much more depends on them. Its all speculation, mind. I'd prefer that the project got going because if the tin price does a times 5 or more (which Vis has highlighted with his recent video) and the aggs come on stream, even after dilution the share price could be vastly higher than where we are currently. This project has had nearly 5 years of decline following a 5 year decline and collapse of WOLF. Its a brave investor who'll sink money into such a troubled project. However, I think they'll avoid closure (I think we're all on the same page regarding that now we have the MPF permit) and once the fear subsides the true value will emerge. Possible unicorn stock.