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I see we are due for a trading up date next week. This should boost the SP up to around the 246p mark since I cannot see any negatives.
jaffjoon
Only negative will be the wider markets, MRW reported yesterday but the sp dropped a little. those results imo were excellent, No reason why TSCO cannot match or beat them. Their online and home delivery is so much better too. MRW is up today so maybe the results are now being digested.
The tighter restrictions in the UK should help keep the momentum going in sales, TSCO really is the best of it's competitors in the one stop shop in respect of groceries, clothing, electrical items and homeware.
Difficult call to predict the sp £2.46 does seem reasonable to me but the markets are so irrational atm.
And we should also start to take into consideration DIVIDEND payments which will include the Special? Any ideas anyone on how this will effect the SP?
The Special Dividend may be a distraction now as news keeps reporting surges in demand (see latest newsfeed) Schools closed together with hospitality is challenging stores to keep up.
Locally my Asda store has sold out of chicken and some fresh produce,. However, my local Tesco store are not reporting any stock supply issues.
leas
Chatting to a store manager yesterday who said that their store is practically empty. Npo meat whatsoever in the store following a plague of panic buying ;locusts.
Rosewall
Really. Crazy times. Well looks like my family has got their wish and I will become a vegetarian by default.
Time to worry is when the Gin supplies wane. :)
"Npo meat whatsoever in the store following a plague of panic buying ;locusts."
I thought locusts were vegetarian?
Support your local butcher, probably more expensive but It actually tastes like meat!! mine will also deliver.
Fred, my butcher also does liver. ;)
Sorry, couldn’t resist.
Mmm...... I was hoping it would hit a close of around the 246 p mark today and then keep rising for the rest of the week in time for the trading up date. I suppose there is still hope ?
(Sharecast News) - Sainsbury's lifted profit forecasts after a booming festive period as Britons treated themselves to champagne and steaks in response to pandemic restrictions on the size of gatherings and online orders hit record levels.
I’m sue Tesco’s Finest range will have benefitted as well.
Cannot see any reason why TSCO cannot better the SBRY update. Sales up 8.6%. From their trading update the second lockdown in November helped them beat expectations. This third lockdown imo will last much longer than the 2 month forecast and would not be surprised to see it continue through to Easter.
Another point of interest in their report was increased sales as Brits remain at home (me included) with an estimated 5m not travelling overseas. All stacking up very nicely for TSCO, only question I suppose , does the current sp reflect market expectations of ours?
leas
Agreed.
Hard to think of a UK sector which has the wind in its sails currently as much as supermarkets & TSCO is the clear leader in that place, my suspicion re the price having been slow to start reacting (but now seemingly speeding up) has more to do with SD confusion than anything else, certainly the comments/queries on this board imply that & perhaps institutional investors want to see the dust settle first ? Most of them seem scared of their own shadow at the moment & valuations compared to index could be impaired by a large special divi and price revision, could be easier for them to wait & buy xd, doesn't really make sense but little does these days.
barchid
Fully agree. That said there are still plenty of trading days left before the 11th Feb. I’m sure the company has took advice from the city and this process is what they have determined to be the best way forward for shareholder value.
However, as you point out this has led to investor confusion or certainty private investor confusion who will be hoping for a rise as we approach the GM.
I guess that is when most will sell giving an opportunity to the institutions.
All guess work of course and I will reassess my strategy as things play out.
Fwiw, I think TSCO will be in better shape post Covid and their online sales leaving the rest behind. We also have to remember that Booker will be doing well too as smaller independent shops will be seeing increased footfall. This on top of savings running the Pension Fund does make a strong case for a long term hold.
Leas, Barchid,
I would disagree with one point raised. Any confusion over the special dividend (and consolidation) is down to PIs being too lazy to read the published circular. Posters were referring to the Asia business when it was plural. Posters were saying the Asia businesses were profitable when only one was. Posters were denying that there would be share consolidation. Within the past fortnight, posters were saying that there would share buybacks even though this would mean another GM . Any confusion about the deal is entirely due to the laziness of the PI.
Rosewell
In fairness I think in the past I referred to the sale of the 2 businesses in Asia as a singular sale of assets but not all private investors are as diligent as one another.
You could also say the same with the institutional investor too. I can remember holding a pharma for a number of years and can say without hesitation that the private investor knew more about the business and its journey leading up to a commercial deal.
You are clearly a guy that does his due diligence and that has to be respected but equally an investor who may be a bit more ‘cavalier’ is to be respected if they make a profit.
leas,
On reflection, I would have to agree with you. As you say, "if they make a profit". Due diligence and research does not remove risk but it does go some way to alleviate it. If I ever invest in a share, even as an in and out trade, I like to do some research. I don't think I have ever gone into a share that I don't understand or would not be happy to hold long term if things go wrong. I learnt my lesson with SXX to keep emotion out of it though.
Rosewall
My biggest ever return on a share was in the very early 90s. EB was a retailer selling electronic games online. I had no investment experience at all but being the younger generation at the time I saw the potential. The only fundamental I understood was the lowly MC. I took a gamble and loaded up at 0.02p A decade later I sold at £1.80p when the company had morphed itself into Game.
I then made the mistake of investing a proportion of that profit in a high yielding company. HMV at the time fitted the profile of a good safe company that had been on the high street for almost a century.
I managed to get out a week before them going into admin losing 60% of my investment.
I think experience has told me that luck plays a significant role in making money from in this type of investing but agree we can reduce the risk with research.
I am sure in the past you have read articles from journalists who have engaged the services of a monkey and put them head to head with fund managers.
No prize for guessing who came out on top.
Leas
I take my hat off to you, there's no way I could hold a stock from 2p to 180p without selling.
I look back to some of my purchases around the erm ejection time and keep quiet, long gone the lot of them, sadly.
On a brighter note I felt I had to top up again on TSCO today, I can't help myself.
On a br
barchid
It was not ,02p but ,0002p, Sounds crazy but there was never a good time to sell. At .48p EB was mentioned as a buy in the Midas section of the Daily Mail :]