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The board would negotiate very favourable terms for themselves in any sellout.
However, they cannot overrule major shareholders influence on whom to sell to and at what price.
Looking at this share & the boards responsibilitie to
maximise shareholder value ,the company should be up for sale at a price which would be around double the share price as it stands. However the management are not interested in doing this as they are looking after their income & salaries & not the shareholders interests. Surely this this is the opposite to what they announced in the interim statement where they said they have a responsibility to maximise shareholder value.
Put the company up for sale & it should achieve around £4 per share or probably more. That's the best shareholder value .
Cont...
Amobee (great tech enhancements for Tremor aside) was largely display (lower-funnel) and may, under the current circumstances, perform better than expected, even without pushing the cross-selling potential that Tremor has planned for those clients.
So indeed, slower growth for 2023 maybe, but the world of ad tech is not in Armageddon.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bethkindig/2023/01/27/ad-budgets-set-to-slow-even-more-in-2023/?sh=3882cbd3554c#What%20to%20Expect%20For%20Ad%20Spend%20in%202023
Whereas the growth in ad spend worldwide is predicted to halve in 2023 compared to 2022, this forecast implies that there is still an overall growth prediction for 2023. China, where we have no interest, will likely impact the down trend in the ad spend growth figures more aversely than other countries. Note also, Forbes is predicting that within the overall ad spend mix …
Extract…"On a brighter note, the CTV market is expected to grow 14.4% in 2023 and will grow faster than the overall advertisement market. They forecast Linear TV spending to see a drop of (6.3%). Across the advertising channels, digital video, including CTV, is expected to have the highest share of 22.4%, up from 19.3% in 2022.
There are positive comments from other ad-tech companies on CTV. Hunain Khan, Director, Programmatic CTV supply at Xandr said, “2023 marks a new age of CTV, due to the increased amount of available premium inventory through AVOD platforms.”
Similarly, Hitesh Bhat, Director, CTV/OTT, EMEA at PubMatic said, “2023 will be an interesting year for CTV in Europe, but I’m avoiding “the year of CTV’ hyperbole. The ad-funded opportunity will grow significantly with the entrance of huge players such as Netflix, Disney+, Paramount+ and the combined HBO/Discovery+ offering. I think Netflix and Disney will be careful in terms of ad loads, so as not to annoy viewers who are still also subscribers.
The Dentsu ad spending report forecasts that global advertising spending in 2023 to increase by 3.8% YoY to $740.9 billion. It is lower than the 8% expected growth for 2022 and the 19.6% growth reported in 2021. The forecasts have been slashed from the July report, which projected a growth of 5.4% for 2023. Some of the reasons mentioned in the report for the slowdown include rising inflation, interest rates, recessions, and political uncertainty. The report suggests that if we exclude the media price inflation, ad spending is forecasted to drop (0.6%) in 2023.
The Americas region is expected to grow 3.7% YoY to $339.1 billion, the EMEA region to grow 3.8% YoY to $156.7 billion, and Asia Pacific is forecasted to grow 4% to $245.1 billion.
Digital ad spending is expected to grow 7.2% YoY to $422.8 billion. It is down from 13.7% expected growth in 2022. Digital ad spending accounted for 57.1% of all advertising spending in 2023. The share is expected to increase to 59.5% in 2025.
According to Insider Intelligence, digital ad spending is expected to grow 10.5% in 2023 from the expected 8.6% in 2022, both of these estimates reflect downward revisions of 2.6% and 7%, respectively.
Extract…“Google has an edge over its other ad-reliant competitors in an economic downturn, as advertisers facing budget cuts typically prioritize lower-funnel channels with higher ROI like search,”….Probably why Perion with its exclusive relationship with the Microsoft Bing search engine, is performing so well just now. .
Continued...
Gdog,
It gets cheaper with every quarterly result. Just check the 2-yr graph. Regular like clock work on every conference call.
It will soon be £1 or less. I would hold on to your dollars for a bit longer and not be mugged like me!
Looks like I will be dead by the time this recovers but then, I'm dead any which way you look at it as this is 75%of my portfolio. Silly me to !
JR
I noticed that and said the same thing to myself.
This stock is SO cheap...it'd kill me to sell then have it pop. Yeah, I know, FOMO.
I don't think the CFO as ever sold any of his options when they vest.
Always taken that as a positive.
and sold chunky lots... panic selling
I see that our directors have been awarded another truck load of free shares. It is a pity that the greedy bar stewards don’t put their hands into their own pockets for a change. Regards Curly.
It was W. Buffet and he meant arriving at an honest and intelligent judgement of what an asset can produce and buying it when its price looks good in relation to that.
"Never invest in a business you cannot understand", didn't someone say that once.
So my question was - out of all the public traded ad-tecs which would be the fastest growing over a three year period in terms of % on revenue ex-TAC (or the nearest equivalent if they don't publish ex-TAC) assuming TRMR makes its potentially conservative target of 400M and TTD meets its 20%?
Adding each year of growth together for the last 2 and guided current, TRMR would beat TTD by about 0.4%. That sounds crazy when you look at their respective presentations and fundamentals. One's clearly very good at pitching its biz and the other is terrible.
I am slightly concerned that adtech alone is hugely complex and that understanding the twists and turns of evolving technology and acquisitions with complex accounting and guidance set in a backdrop of recent inflation and cuts in ad spend, along with seasonal variation, can boggle the mind of the average investor.
At the end of the day, profitability is paramount and seeing value in a fallen sp!
Thanks jonhas, hadn't appreciated that we will have to wait until 2024 to see any bottom line benefit from Amobee purchase. Though I would have expected some Amobee costs to be written down in 'exceptionals' and thereby excluded from adjusted EBITDA.
Havealot, Amobee was loss making when acquired so it's going to dilute down trmr's margin during 2023. The full stack model and a focus on efficiencies should bring it back to sector leading in time.
Re above discussion regarding company's forecasts for 2023. I have difficulty reconciling figures as follows: revenue forecast $400mil (2022 was $335mil) with adj EBITDA at $140 to $145 (2022 was $144.9). Unless cost of sales and or admin are forecast to increase by a substantial amount ie approx $65mil, the forecast revenue must be overstated or EBITDA figure is understated. This inconsistency is concerning me. Anyone able to explain this apparent discrepancy.
Tricky,
Having never seen the movie, I had to get a glimpse of who Otto is. Thanks, this is quite the compliment:
"Otto West, an ignorant and mean-spirited anglophobe"
doggy,
You sometimes remind me of Kevin Kline playing Otto in 'A Fish Called Wanda'.
If there is another buyback as was discussed I expect that means the Sky takeover rumour is a no no? You just wouldn't announce a new one if there was a potential sale ?
Provided the cushion against this never-ending sell off but will be interesting to see how it copes without these.
Gdog, you wrote regarding guidance: "I think they're shooting from the hip."
I agree, however I also believe the downgrade to 400M was an attempt to regain the initiative. Consider the difference in perception and trust if they actually hit 420M having reset expectations to 400M, rather than hitting 420M with a target of 450M. The first , they will be ahead of guidance for 4 quarters and the later; missing for 4 more.
Their previous calculations had led them to expect 460m but that demands a 61% increase in programmatic ex TAC (albeit mostly coming from Amobee); they reconsidered this figure in light of their competitor's single digit increases and the recent softness. Even the 400m requires a 39% increase in programmatic. I believe, it was the comparison with their competitors, and having finally cottoned onto the game of setting expectations low and then beating them - albeit with terrible management of expectation setting at the outset.
You mentioned company fundamentals, that is a really fascinating area right now. Assume TRMR hits its 400m target, I believe it may beat it but lets stick with a hit - which two ad-tec stocks, out of all the public traded, would be the fastest growing over a three year period in terms of %, for revenue ex-TAC (or the nearest equivalent if they don't publish ex-TAC)?
Topped again at 212p same number of shares each time , at least it is costing less each time lol
Spread is 1.91% today .
Maybe wise to stop now ?
This marks the end of the share buyback as announced on 20th September 2022. The Board will continue to evaluate the best use of its capital going forwards.
"The people running Tremor are good at managing money.
It's in their blood.
Of course they want rewarding for their predilection.
That's the way it runs.
Unless they are just telling us what we want to hear!"
======================================================
Tricky, almost poetic.
That's the way it runs.....they don't do it for fun. Telling us what we want to hear...tis what I fear.